> Yes, but as I read it, they all lastingly changed the level of exercise they were getting, and the extent of the "bad" metabolic adaptation seemed to correlat

> Yes, but as I read it, they all lastingly changed the level of exercise they were getting, and the extent of the "bad" metabolic adaptation seemed to correlate strongly with how big of a lasting change they made in exercise. This doesn't contradict me. > I've seen several other studies that suggest the opposite: that diet is a stronger predictor than exercise of long-term weight-loss success That is not the opposite. I am not claiming that exercise is a stronger predictor than energy balance. I am claiming that it is a strong predictor. I am not going to dig them up. Go check google scholar and check out Layne Norton's book Fat Loss Forever. > there are diminishing returns from having a caloric deficit The evidence seems to suggest that it's better to lose weight slowly to mitigate metabolic adaptation. If that's what you mean, it appears to be correct. I would reiterate that I think the impact of exercise might be different with a small/modest caloric deficit.