4 ms·

The IRL usage is as a savings account. As more people understand its fundamental qualities (or even just see number go up) and save their wealth in it, it's va

by npoc 3y ago

The IRL usage is as a savings account. As more people understand its fundamental qualities (or even just see number go up) and save their wealth in it, it's value will become less volatile and it will become more useful as a unit of account and day-to-day medium of exchange. It will be >$10M/BTC before that'll start to happen though.

TrackerFF 3y ago
If we're going to look at it from a fundamental perspective - what drives people to purchase BTC? I don't know about you, but close to 100% of everyone I know that have bought BTC (and other coins, for that matter) the past 5-10 years have done it in hopes of it going to the moon. The bitcoin maxis are at this point a fringe movement, a distant past, really. If you put all your savings on index funds, there is some predictability and underlying assets to reason for. What is the best predictor for whether crypto goes up or down? How can you possibly predict what triggers its price, if there's little to none real-life usage? Unless we see widespread adaption of some sort, for actual concrete applications, it is just going to be pure speculation. But I agree on volatility - ETFs can certainly reduce volatility if there's enough growth.
- npoc 3y ago
  I have all my savings stored in bitcoin. I do it because I've spent 100s of hours learning what money really is and can see that bitcoin is the best form of it, certainly the best long term store of value. I also know that the best long term store of value will ultimately be where the world's stored value is moved to.
  - Gareth321 3y ago
    I like your courage, but you really should diversify. Life is long and none of us have a crystal ball. If you don't trust USD, get some other currencies, including crypto. Get some property. Gold. Bonds. Stocks. Savings. Shit happens and you need to defend your portfolio as well as maximise profits.
    - npoc 3y ago
      No way. I came for the gains but I'm staying for the revolution. It doesn't take resolve, only 100s of hours of learning and contemplation. I'll die on this hill, and there's many more like me.
      - TrackerFF 3y ago
        Your money, your call. But I'm wondering - why wouldn't you invest in business? Business are, after all, the drivers of economy. While cryptocurrencies could theoretically grow to "infinite" (finite supply and all. combined with fiat monetary policies), there must be some realistic limit to the growth, where the price starts to converge. For BTC, that price is somewhere in the single digit millions. Could make a long post of how I came up with that figure, but basically assume that everyone owning any assets in the world manage to liquidate those, and go all in on BTC, nothing else. Combined with investing newly minted fiat into BTC. (Never mind the economical consequences of public companies being worth close to zero $, and people only spending their money on BTC) So let's say that BTC "only" has a theoretical maximum of, say, 100x increase from the current price. (but more realistically 10x-20x) If you really wanted to make a killing, wouldn't it be better to also invest in revolutionary companies? NVIDIA has jumped 100x the past 10 years. There will likely be other NVIDIAs out there. Obviously this wouldn't mean as much if you're a longtime holder, but from the perspective of a fresh investor, that's where one stands right now.
        npoc 3y ago
        None of them offer the probability of bitcoin. It's the most asymmetrical bet I've ever seen. The only reason it's not already $10M/BTC is that noone understands what it is - many people think they do, but they don't. As someone who has studied the subject for 100s of hours, I haven't come across a single valid argument for why it won't absorb all the stored value in the world over time. The hardest part is just being patient while everyone figures it out. The supply halving every 4 years helps to bring it to their attention :) Regarding potential value, this article offers food for thought: https://t.co/eLqJCYeCKW https://t.co/eLqJCYeCKW
  - shaman1 3y ago
    Are you hoping for it to remain the same or are you hoping for an increase compared to usd? Asking because you mentioned stored. What if you could buy shares with btc? If value just sits there and is not used in a productive way - things companies try to do - you're subscribing to a very static world view. It might make sense if you are close to retirement - where people usually move to stable assets - but generally you want your assets to be used in a productive way rather than hidden away.
    - npoc 3y ago
      Remain the same value or price? If it remains the same value its USD price will increase at the rate of devaluation of the dollar which is 7% on average (value halves every decade) If I wanted to make my bitcoin "productive", I could lend it to businesses and then receive interest on top - so bitcoin would go up in price at 7% and then I'd also receive back 5 to 10% more bitcoin per year. No other asset will ever come close to this, without taking on risk or extra work. Which is why bitcoin will very likely also go up 2000% in value over the next decade.
davedx 3y ago
That might have been interesting during ZIRP but these days many people have very non-zero interest on their savings account. If you hold Bitcoin its value may well go down not up. It's more like holding penny stocks than a saving account.

by npoc 3y ago

TrackerFF 3y ago

If we're going to look at it from a fundamental perspective - what drives people to purchase BTC? I don't know about you, but close to 100% of everyone I know that have bought BTC (and other coins, for that matter) the past 5-10 years have done it in hopes of it going to the moon. The bitcoin maxis are at this point a fringe movement, a distant past, really. If you put all your savings on index funds, there is some predictability and underlying assets to reason for. What is the best predictor for whether crypto goes up or down? How can you possibly predict what triggers its price, if there's little to none real-life usage? Unless we see widespread adaption of some sort, for actual concrete applications, it is just going to be pure speculation. But I agree on volatility - ETFs can certainly reduce volatility if there's enough growth.

npoc 3y ago
I have all my savings stored in bitcoin. I do it because I've spent 100s of hours learning what money really is and can see that bitcoin is the best form of it, certainly the best long term store of value. I also know that the best long term store of value will ultimately be where the world's stored value is moved to.
- Gareth321 3y ago
  I like your courage, but you really should diversify. Life is long and none of us have a crystal ball. If you don't trust USD, get some other currencies, including crypto. Get some property. Gold. Bonds. Stocks. Savings. Shit happens and you need to defend your portfolio as well as maximise profits.
  - npoc 3y ago
    No way. I came for the gains but I'm staying for the revolution. It doesn't take resolve, only 100s of hours of learning and contemplation. I'll die on this hill, and there's many more like me.
    - TrackerFF 3y ago
      Your money, your call. But I'm wondering - why wouldn't you invest in business? Business are, after all, the drivers of economy. While cryptocurrencies could theoretically grow to "infinite" (finite supply and all. combined with fiat monetary policies), there must be some realistic limit to the growth, where the price starts to converge. For BTC, that price is somewhere in the single digit millions. Could make a long post of how I came up with that figure, but basically assume that everyone owning any assets in the world manage to liquidate those, and go all in on BTC, nothing else. Combined with investing newly minted fiat into BTC. (Never mind the economical consequences of public companies being worth close to zero $, and people only spending their money on BTC) So let's say that BTC "only" has a theoretical maximum of, say, 100x increase from the current price. (but more realistically 10x-20x) If you really wanted to make a killing, wouldn't it be better to also invest in revolutionary companies? NVIDIA has jumped 100x the past 10 years. There will likely be other NVIDIAs out there. Obviously this wouldn't mean as much if you're a longtime holder, but from the perspective of a fresh investor, that's where one stands right now.
      - npoc 3y ago
        None of them offer the probability of bitcoin. It's the most asymmetrical bet I've ever seen. The only reason it's not already $10M/BTC is that noone understands what it is - many people think they do, but they don't. As someone who has studied the subject for 100s of hours, I haven't come across a single valid argument for why it won't absorb all the stored value in the world over time. The hardest part is just being patient while everyone figures it out. The supply halving every 4 years helps to bring it to their attention :) Regarding potential value, this article offers food for thought: https://t.co/eLqJCYeCKW https://t.co/eLqJCYeCKW
- shaman1 3y ago
  Are you hoping for it to remain the same or are you hoping for an increase compared to usd? Asking because you mentioned stored. What if you could buy shares with btc? If value just sits there and is not used in a productive way - things companies try to do - you're subscribing to a very static world view. It might make sense if you are close to retirement - where people usually move to stable assets - but generally you want your assets to be used in a productive way rather than hidden away.
  - npoc 3y ago
    Remain the same value or price? If it remains the same value its USD price will increase at the rate of devaluation of the dollar which is 7% on average (value halves every decade) If I wanted to make my bitcoin "productive", I could lend it to businesses and then receive interest on top - so bitcoin would go up in price at 7% and then I'd also receive back 5 to 10% more bitcoin per year. No other asset will ever come close to this, without taking on risk or extra work. Which is why bitcoin will very likely also go up 2000% in value over the next decade.

davedx 3y ago

That might have been interesting during ZIRP but these days many people have very non-zero interest on their savings account. If you hold Bitcoin its value may well go down not up. It's more like holding penny stocks than a saving account.