4 ms·

TINA when CPI inflation (in the UK) is has been 18% in just 2 years.

by nly 3y ago

andsoitis 3y ago
> TINA when CPI inflation (in the UK) is has been 18% in just 2 years. The UK inflation rate was 3.9 percent in November 2023, down from 4.6 percent in the previous month. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/306648/inflation-rate-consumer-price-index-cpi-united-kingdom-uk/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/306648/inflation-rate-co...
- sokoloff 3y ago
  I can't tell from the context of your comment whether you believe the monthly inflation figures are inflation that happened in that month (the "one month's worth of inflation was X%") or if those are annualized figures (the "one month's measure of an annualized rate of inflation"). If you are of the belief that the monthly inflation figures "stack", you are saying inflation is much higher than the 18% in 2 years that GP reported. If you are not of that belief, then the figures you cite are fairly consistent with the 2 year rise in prices being in the +18% neighborhood.
- nly 3y ago
  UK CPIH index value (includes cost of housing) Nov 2021 - 114.1 Nov 2023 (latest value) - 130.0 So, 14%. 18% slightly out of date figure. Cash in the bank, even at 5% rates, hasn't kept up.
  - md_ 3y ago
    Cash in the bank normally doesn't keep up. If it does, the orthodox view is that you risk a deflationary spiral. Central banks want to incentivize investments.
    - nly 3y ago
      It's not what they want. It's the mechanics of their business. They borrow short at base rates and lend long at a margin
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      Owning shares in the entities for which money for goods and services pass through is the way to keep up with inflation. If I buy things from Costco/Apple/Toyota/Novartis/etc, then they increase prices, then their share prices go up accordingly. Anything else will fall short.
    - ptero 3y ago
      This is a phenomenon of the last two decades. Before the fed started cutting rates after 9/11 (to support the country, the financial markets, the housing markets, etc.) both money market and savings accounts (you had to choose a good bank) usually gave positive inflation adjusted return.
      - nly 3y ago
        Barely. In real terms US bills have returned 0.4%/yr over the last 120+ years
        md_ 3y ago
        Seems to me Treasury bills meaningfully outpace inflation, on average: https://www.bauer.uh.edu/rsusmel/other/lrret1.htm https://www.bauer.uh.edu/rsusmel/other/lrret1.htm. But I was talking about cash accounts, which typically pay lower interest rates than T-bills or CDs (as noted on the above link).
        ptero 3y ago
        In the late 1990s my savings account at the EmigrantDirect was paying about 7% with inflation around 3%. This was not a term deposit, but a regular account, either itself with check-writing privileges or linked to a checking account with 1-3 day transfers. I think MMFs with check-writing paid similar interest, although not 100% sure as I never put my money there. Those were cash accounts as I could withdraw any amount, up to 100% of the account any time without any penalties.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- Jenk 3y ago
  Probably a confusion of what that percentage is - whilst the monthly figure is as you have said, the accumulated/aggregate percentage of inflation over those two years is probably what GP refers to as 18%
  - andsoitis 3y ago
    > Probably a confusion of what that percentage is - whilst the monthly figure is as you have said, the accumulated/aggregate percentage of inflation over those two years is probably what GP refers to as 18% “Montly” inflation rates are usually expressed in terms relative to the prior year, not prior month. When we look at another data source, annual inflation rates for the UK don’t appear to be 18%: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/inflation-rate-cpi https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/inf...
    - nly 3y ago
      I said in two years, not one.
- pmlnr 3y ago
  1L Arla Lactofree milk was £1 around 2013 in Tesco. Today, it's £1.85. Bank of England inflation calculator at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/in... says it should be £1.34 So much for the inflation numbers.
  - latency-guy2 3y ago
    Inflation measures are not across the board, they are aggregates. Similar to how pay at one company and profit is not ever the same even within the same industry or audience, different products have different prices.
    - md_ 3y ago
      The average male height is 176cm, but I'm 187. LIES I TELL YOU! PURE LIES! aka, some folks on HN don't know about statistics.
      - pmlnr 3y ago
        Oh, I understand statistics, that's not what I'm saying: I'm plainly saying that so far, with anything I threw at it, the gov.uk inflation calculator is a plain lie.
        md_ 3y ago
        In my experience--which is anecdotal, and thus shouldn't be trusted--nearly any discussion of inflation involves people waving around their untrustworthy anecdotal experience as evidence that the statistics are wrong.
    - ptero 3y ago
      Are you suggesting that while milk might have a price spike, carrots and beef would compensate? But that's not what happens. What comes down in electronics. If you exclude food, shelter and medicine (things you need to live) the numbers are in line with govt estimates. But most people would bristle at this approach.
- jbu 3y ago
  That's why we now have the Vimes Boot Index - https://www.vimesbootsindex.co.uk/ https://www.vimesbootsindex.co.uk/
bluescrn 3y ago
And food prices feel like they're up 50% over the same period, especially when you start noticing the shrinkflation. £6 for a pint of beer (outside of London) is 'the new normal'.
underdeserver 3y ago
TINA stands for There Is No Alternative? That's a new one for me.

TINA when CPI inflation (in the UK) is has been 18% in just 2 years.

by nly 3y ago

TINA when CPI inflation (in the UK) is has been 18% in just 2 years.

> TINA when CPI inflation (in the UK) is has been 18% in just 2 years. The UK inflation rate was 3.9 percent in November 2023, down from 4.6 percent in the previous month. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/306648/inflation-rate-consumer-price-index-cpi-united-kingdom-uk/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/306648/inflation-rate-co...

sokoloff 3y ago
I can't tell from the context of your comment whether you believe the monthly inflation figures are inflation that happened in that month (the "one month's worth of inflation was X%") or if those are annualized figures (the "one month's measure of an annualized rate of inflation"). If you are of the belief that the monthly inflation figures "stack", you are saying inflation is much higher than the 18% in 2 years that GP reported. If you are not of that belief, then the figures you cite are fairly consistent with the 2 year rise in prices being in the +18% neighborhood.
nly 3y ago
UK CPIH index value (includes cost of housing) Nov 2021 - 114.1 Nov 2023 (latest value) - 130.0 So, 14%. 18% slightly out of date figure. Cash in the bank, even at 5% rates, hasn't kept up.
- md_ 3y ago
  Cash in the bank normally doesn't keep up. If it does, the orthodox view is that you risk a deflationary spiral. Central banks want to incentivize investments.
  - nly 3y ago
    It's not what they want. It's the mechanics of their business. They borrow short at base rates and lend long at a margin
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    Owning shares in the entities for which money for goods and services pass through is the way to keep up with inflation. If I buy things from Costco/Apple/Toyota/Novartis/etc, then they increase prices, then their share prices go up accordingly. Anything else will fall short.
  - ptero 3y ago
    This is a phenomenon of the last two decades. Before the fed started cutting rates after 9/11 (to support the country, the financial markets, the housing markets, etc.) both money market and savings accounts (you had to choose a good bank) usually gave positive inflation adjusted return.
    - nly 3y ago
      Barely. In real terms US bills have returned 0.4%/yr over the last 120+ years
      - md_ 3y ago
        Seems to me Treasury bills meaningfully outpace inflation, on average: https://www.bauer.uh.edu/rsusmel/other/lrret1.htm https://www.bauer.uh.edu/rsusmel/other/lrret1.htm. But I was talking about cash accounts, which typically pay lower interest rates than T-bills or CDs (as noted on the above link).
        ptero 3y ago
        In the late 1990s my savings account at the EmigrantDirect was paying about 7% with inflation around 3%. This was not a term deposit, but a regular account, either itself with check-writing privileges or linked to a checking account with 1-3 day transfers. I think MMFs with check-writing paid similar interest, although not 100% sure as I never put my money there. Those were cash accounts as I could withdraw any amount, up to 100% of the account any time without any penalties.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Jenk 3y ago
Probably a confusion of what that percentage is - whilst the monthly figure is as you have said, the accumulated/aggregate percentage of inflation over those two years is probably what GP refers to as 18%
- andsoitis 3y ago
  > Probably a confusion of what that percentage is - whilst the monthly figure is as you have said, the accumulated/aggregate percentage of inflation over those two years is probably what GP refers to as 18% “Montly” inflation rates are usually expressed in terms relative to the prior year, not prior month. When we look at another data source, annual inflation rates for the UK don’t appear to be 18%: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/inflation-rate-cpi https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/inf...
  - nly 3y ago
    I said in two years, not one.
pmlnr 3y ago
1L Arla Lactofree milk was £1 around 2013 in Tesco. Today, it's £1.85. Bank of England inflation calculator at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/in... says it should be £1.34 So much for the inflation numbers.
- latency-guy2 3y ago
  Inflation measures are not across the board, they are aggregates. Similar to how pay at one company and profit is not ever the same even within the same industry or audience, different products have different prices.
  - md_ 3y ago
    The average male height is 176cm, but I'm 187. LIES I TELL YOU! PURE LIES! aka, some folks on HN don't know about statistics.
    - pmlnr 3y ago
      Oh, I understand statistics, that's not what I'm saying: I'm plainly saying that so far, with anything I threw at it, the gov.uk inflation calculator is a plain lie.
      - md_ 3y ago
        In my experience--which is anecdotal, and thus shouldn't be trusted--nearly any discussion of inflation involves people waving around their untrustworthy anecdotal experience as evidence that the statistics are wrong.
  - ptero 3y ago
    Are you suggesting that while milk might have a price spike, carrots and beef would compensate? But that's not what happens. What comes down in electronics. If you exclude food, shelter and medicine (things you need to live) the numbers are in line with govt estimates. But most people would bristle at this approach.
jbu 3y ago
That's why we now have the Vimes Boot Index - https://www.vimesbootsindex.co.uk/ https://www.vimesbootsindex.co.uk/

bluescrn 3y ago

And food prices feel like they're up 50% over the same period, especially when you start noticing the shrinkflation. £6 for a pint of beer (outside of London) is 'the new normal'.

underdeserver 3y ago

TINA stands for There Is No Alternative? That's a new one for me.