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It's the end of an industry as we knew it. There will be demand for developers in some very specific sectors and specialities, and some legacy code support for
by danjac 3y ago
It's the end of an industry as we knew it.
There will be demand for developers in some very specific sectors and specialities, and some legacy code support for a while, but likely most of us will be out of work within the next few years.
Some people are claiming "things will pick up again Real Soon Now, you'll see" but they are whistling in the dark.
- ChatGTP 3y agoThis comment won’t age well.
- danjac 3y agoI would be happy to be proven wrong.
- ChatGTP 3y agoDo you have any idea how much software there is in the world? What would you think it's just going to stop being produced and maintained tomorrow? Do you have any idea what the societal costs of such a change would be? Even if it was due to "AI", hundreds of thousands of AI augmented developers are going to be off launching new startups writing more and more software, hacking stuff, it's not just going to end tomorrow because there is value in software and software solutions.
- danjac 3y agoYep, like I said, whistling in the dark.
- theshackleford 3y agoSo basically you have nothing. Thanks for confirming I guess.
- danjac 3y agoI already pointed out there's going to be legacy work for a while, especially in certain specialisations. Everything else "AI powered developers are going to startup all the things!!!" is just hype by some poster literally calling themselves (ironically I hope) ChatGPT.
- dieortin 3y agoYou still have not provided a single reason why software developers are supposedly going to become useless overnight
- danjac 3y agoOnly 700 new IT jobs created in the last year for the whole of the US: https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/ https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/ The blood-letting is still ongoing (Pixar and Discord, just talking about today). I think the overall reason is that a lot of startups and services have been unprofitable for a while, and the zero-interest-rate environment of the past decade was the high tide that covered a lot of people swimming naked, as Buffett once put it. There might be other reasons for example SAAS platforms being consolidated into fewer and fewer big players. Long term AI will play its part - perhaps creating lots of junk code, but CEOs don't really care about long term quality these days, just short term earnings calls. Of course there are going to be niches and things like payroll or flight booking programs that will need maintenance work from now until the end of time, and some programmers will be around in 10 years, just not as many. Again, I would love to be proven wrong.
- oldpersonintx 3y ago[dead]
- hindsightbias 3y agoNobody maintains anything anymore anyway. Even a company that sells 18M laptops a year for $30B can't be bothered to timely fix their OS bugs. So that's 99% of the code base right there. X has proven 80% aren't doing much of importance. Of the remaining 1%, 3/4ths are probably rewriting to some flavor of the week and 1/4th are developing some real feature.
- vineyardmike 3y ago> It's the end of an industry as we knew it. I was considering agreeing that "the old Silicon Valley" was probably no more. > There will be demand for developers in some very specific sectors and specialities Yea.... > and some legacy code support for a while, Well sure, we still famously have Cobol... > but likely most of us will be out of work within the next few years. Hmm. Uh. > "things will pick up again Real Soon Now, you'll see" but they are whistling in the dark. Nah, I think it'll pick up real soon. We saw inflation quickly come under control, high employment rates, wage growth, etc. It's generally a healthy economy. These giants shedding fat is probably good for juicing the rest of the industry and spreading talent around. Suck for the individuals of course, that can be very challenging to experience. But lots of people have been pretty unhappy with the products big tech has been giving, so hopefully this can put some smart entrepreneurs into the waters.