The problem is that you can't just multiply probabilities like that... How about: P(disease|calories) = P(disease|calories from sugar) + P(disease|calories no

The problem is that you can't just multiply probabilities like that... How about: P(disease|calories) = P(disease|calories from sugar) + P(disease|calories not from sugar) So it might mean: P(disease|calories from sugar) =0.05 P(disease|calories not from sugar)=0.01