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If they diverge, an arbitrage opportunity will appear which market participants will jump on.
by lucw 3y ago
If they diverge, an arbitrage opportunity will appear which market participants will jump on.
- fsckboy 3y agoif they diverge because an economic shitstorm has started and everybody is buying food for survival with bitcoin, but the rump government still wants its cut of your new mad gainz, bitcoin in the ETF and bitcoin out of the ETF might maintain independent values, FEC vs RMB
- kbrkbr 3y agoTalking about extreme situations, here is another possible scenario - if electricity is then rationed and works only for two hours a day, people with cigarettes or gold may actually buy the food, while people with Bitcoin go hungry, and the value may plummet.
- jgilias 3y agoThis needs to happen worldwide though. And if that’s the case I have a hunch that the value of my investments might just be the least of my concerns.
- cmcaleer 3y agoA trade like this (partly) is what blew up 3AC. Borrowing has cost and if futures funding premium turns against you and your perceived arb, along with a further divergence against you, it’s game over. Funnily enough that GBTC gap basically closed today; it was a >30% discount when 3AC died. Very nice if you get paid to hedge! Not so nice when you’re paying 0.1% in hourly funding premium.
- iSnow 3y agoYou don't need futures to arb this. You can demand a payout in cash if the ETF price is higher than the Bitcoin price. There will be market makers jumping on that.
- lucw 3y agoI'm not familiar with what happened at 3AC but it sounds like there was leverage involved. The arb opportunity i'm talking about is something that exists with all ETFs and keeps them in line with the underlying asset.
- LikesPwsh 3y ago3AC was doing the same arb on GBTC (with an extended lock-in before redemption), but GBTC had no mechanism for selling BTC once their premium reversed.