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Well, it’s a bad argument made that way, I agree. But let’s at least be honest about the necessity to massively overbuild intermittent sources (and expensive s

Well, it’s a bad argument made that way, I agree. But let’s at least be honest about the necessity to massively overbuild intermittent sources (and expensive storage) to provide reliability when we compare $/MWh.

ceejayoz 3y ago
An honest discussion of that should probably include the ecological and health impacts of coal, and the ongoing dramatic decline in cost to add new solar/wind capacity. It's cheaper even factoring in variable production, and this battery project is part of how you address intermittency. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:3-Learning-curves-for-electricity-prices.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:3-Learning-curves-fo...
- gottorf 3y ago
  I don't know where that linked dataset is from, but almost every claim I've seen for the LCoE of wind/solar being lower than any fossil fuel source excludes the cost of energy storage. Latest estimates[0] put solar and wind roughly at par with combined-cycle gas plants, but without the cost of addressing intermittency. Plus, it would be probably unwise to extrapolate the current downward trend in costs for the relatively new technology (meaning early in its marginal cost curve) of utility-scale solar and wind that it would continue to get much cheaper. The two factors combined would suggest that current energy policy in Hawaii is likely to result in increased costs for the consumer down the line. [0]: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation....
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    > I don't know where that linked dataset is from Scroll down a bit under the graphic. https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth (which has some more dramatic charts, and a lot of explanation)
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    2019 numbers: https://www.nrel.gov/news/video/lcoss-text.html https://www.nrel.gov/news/video/lcoss-text.html California has contracts with 8 Minute Energy to buy energy from their solar+storage plants for 4 cents per kWh.
    - Spinnaker_ 3y ago
      That system has 4 hours of storage. It is extremely disingenuous to compare that to fossil fuels.
      - bryanlarsen 3y ago
        4 hours is all that's necessary in a large grid that's well distributed and diversified.
        Spinnaker_ 3y ago
        Agreed, it's amazing what you can do with an idealized grid. But that grid does not exist, and is still quite far away from ever existing. Meanwhile, the costs they present are for today. When the public (and even policy makers who know should know better) see these numbers, they fairly assume that the sources are being measured by the same criteria.
  - breischl 3y ago
    Lazard LCOE 2023 puts solar PV including storage as cost competitive with natural gas CC plants. The very first chart puts solar+storage at $46-102/MWh, with gas at $42-101/MWh. https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost-of-energyplus/ https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost...
    - Spinnaker_ 3y ago
      And hidden away in the footnotes, they hide the fact that they are modeling 4 hours of storage. It is so blatantly dishonest.

ceejayoz 3y ago

An honest discussion of that should probably include the ecological and health impacts of coal, and the ongoing dramatic decline in cost to add new solar/wind capacity. It's cheaper even factoring in variable production, and this battery project is part of how you address intermittency. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:3-Learning-curves-for-electricity-prices.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:3-Learning-curves-fo...

gottorf 3y ago
I don't know where that linked dataset is from, but almost every claim I've seen for the LCoE of wind/solar being lower than any fossil fuel source excludes the cost of energy storage. Latest estimates[0] put solar and wind roughly at par with combined-cycle gas plants, but without the cost of addressing intermittency. Plus, it would be probably unwise to extrapolate the current downward trend in costs for the relatively new technology (meaning early in its marginal cost curve) of utility-scale solar and wind that it would continue to get much cheaper. The two factors combined would suggest that current energy policy in Hawaii is likely to result in increased costs for the consumer down the line. [0]: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation....
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  > I don't know where that linked dataset is from Scroll down a bit under the graphic. https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth (which has some more dramatic charts, and a lot of explanation)
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  2019 numbers: https://www.nrel.gov/news/video/lcoss-text.html https://www.nrel.gov/news/video/lcoss-text.html California has contracts with 8 Minute Energy to buy energy from their solar+storage plants for 4 cents per kWh.
  - Spinnaker_ 3y ago
    That system has 4 hours of storage. It is extremely disingenuous to compare that to fossil fuels.
    - bryanlarsen 3y ago
      4 hours is all that's necessary in a large grid that's well distributed and diversified.
      - Spinnaker_ 3y ago
        Agreed, it's amazing what you can do with an idealized grid. But that grid does not exist, and is still quite far away from ever existing. Meanwhile, the costs they present are for today. When the public (and even policy makers who know should know better) see these numbers, they fairly assume that the sources are being measured by the same criteria.
- breischl 3y ago
  Lazard LCOE 2023 puts solar PV including storage as cost competitive with natural gas CC plants. The very first chart puts solar+storage at $46-102/MWh, with gas at $42-101/MWh. https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost-of-energyplus/ https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost...
  - Spinnaker_ 3y ago
    And hidden away in the footnotes, they hide the fact that they are modeling 4 hours of storage. It is so blatantly dishonest.