If you think the problem with the 737 Max has been fixed, none of this is relevant. The crude estimate I gave is if you adopt the reasonable theory that the pr

If you think the problem with the 737 Max has been fixed, none of this is relevant. The crude estimate I gave is if you adopt the reasonable theory that the production/operation of the 737 Max is bad more generally, with the cause of the prior crashes being just one of the flaws discovered. An illustrative example: suppose there was a plane model with 100 flaws that each cause a crash every 100B miles, and after each crash that particular flaw is fixed completely. The "correct" fatality rate would still be ~once per billion miles even after several crashes, and would only approach the standard airplane background rate asymptotically after dozens of crashes.