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I find it hard to believe that truly self-sustained residential solar (solar panels + batteries all local) is going to be net cheaper than centralized grid gene

I find it hard to believe that truly self-sustained residential solar (solar panels + batteries all local) is going to be net cheaper than centralized grid generation. The maintenance costs should be significantly higher, particularly for the batteries. It’s not propaganda. The reason it’s freeloading is that you’re still connected to the grid and thus the T&D costs are still there as they’re largely fixed. Utilities have done a poor job of pricing T&D costs correctly (your hookup cost is massively subsidized on the assumption that you will consume an average amount of energy from the grid). Additionally, for a long time (at least in California) utilities were forced to buy back your excess electricity at retail instead of wholesale rates (even if they didn’t need it & they can’t really control electricity you generate like they can with power plants). Residential solar is a greedy tragedy of the commons solution that is subsidized by everyone else. And if everyone had residential solar + batteries + no grid hookup, someone would have to do the analysis if the maintenance cost vs T&D.

flir 3y ago
> It’s not propaganda So how come that rhetoric is only coming out of the US? The rest of the world's distribution networks don't have a problem with residential solar (afaik).
- vlovich123 3y ago
  What other countries have meaningful residential solar and haven’t had to deal with the problems? Can you cite anything because I can’t find any good resources online, but AFAICT the US and China are leading the world in solar and it’s possible that the US is leading for residential solar on normalized terms (haven’t checked). California is probably one of the places in the world with the largest solar residential install and therefore has the most experience with this vs some dark propaganda conspiracy to keep residential solar down? Trust me, residential solar is hugely popular because you basically have free electricity and the government subsidizing the install cost on top + forcing utilities to buy your electricity generation during the day? The political incentives are for more residential solar, not less. The utilities aren’t popular and you can accuse them of shady shit (& they do engage on it), but in this specific instance it does seem more sincere that people are acting because of the threat that residential solar placed to the financial stability of the grid. And no, residential solar doesn’t remove the need for the grid. https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/california-snags-4-of-the-top-5-most-solar-cities-in-the-u-s_o https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/california-snags... https://ilsr.org/the-states-of-distributed-solar/ https://ilsr.org/the-states-of-distributed-solar/ 4 of the top 5 solar cities in the US are in California. California has stopped with the explicit rebates to fund residential solar and it’s not just because solar prices have dropped - it’s bad policy. Other places are still lagging because they don’t have enough residential solar installed to make it obviously a bad idea. The residential solar market has seen a massive contraction since the state government stopped forcing utilities to subsidize them as much - they’re still subsidizing a bit but they switched from buying back electricity from residential at retail rates & now instead use wholesale which is what they’d pay any other generator (T&D costs are subsidized because the monthly grid hookup rate is still too cheap for these kinds of houses).
  - flir 3y ago
    Spain would be the obvious comparison. They're installing rooftop solar like crazy.
    - vlovich123 3y ago
      They’ve literally just started so it’ll take a while for them to see the problems. But already: https://www.solarpaces.org/spain-now-needs-csp-for-grid-stability-study/ https://www.solarpaces.org/spain-now-needs-csp-for-grid-stab... https://energypost.eu/spain-as-renewables-rise-managing-supply-and-demand-is-the-next-challenge/ https://energypost.eu/spain-as-renewables-rise-managing-supp... We’ve already carried out this experiment. Rooftop solar is a luxury good that doesn’t actually reduce fossil fuel dependence. Thankfully Spain has learned the lesson of California & is only giving a wholesale rebate on the bill meaning you’ll never make money from rooftop solar: https://www.ecovidahomes.com/blog/can-you-sell-electricity-back-to-the-grid-in-spain https://www.ecovidahomes.com/blog/can-you-sell-electricity-b... But that doesn’t change the math that using public funds to incentivize rooftop solar is a populist direction that isn’t actually a good idea for the grid. Once enough rooftop solar is installed, watch the grid in Spain start to struggle financially if they haven’t priced the T&D hookup fee correctly (+ expect that fee to rise over time). All that being said, Spain & Europe are slightly different stories - they have a unified electricity grid I believe which lets them export their surplus. Not sure if that actually works for rooftop solar but may help mediate some of the problems that we have in the US.
- CorrectHorseBat 3y ago
  The Netherlands and Belgium certainly do
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
xenadu02 3y ago
Except the ACC calculation used in CA is absolute nonsense and deliberately uses monthly averaging so you don't get a fair cut. Utilities always want to have their cake and eat it too. They want to pay you almost nothing for power sent to the grid ($0.02) that only considers generation using the most optimistic figures. Then during the worst summer peak times when the spot price for power hits $0.20, $0.50, or even $1.00/kWh you don't get to reap any of that benefit. Thanks to the averaging you still get paid $0.02 and PG&E saves $0.96. If utilities want "fairness" then let them pay the spot price in realtime or to the average of the nearest 15 minutes on a daily basis. Then I could choose to drain my batteries when the spot price hits ultra high marks which makes it worth my while, incentivizes storage, and helps grid stability. This also means you pay for distribution on inbound power but don't get credit on outbound. Even though that saves the utility a little bit on distribution that seems fair. If utilities want to get paid for maintaining grid access then let an independent entity run those numbers and bill it accurately. I don't mind paying a grid access charge if it weren't pulled out of PG&E's ass as a backdoor attempt to kill solar. I agree that making them buy power back at the full retail rate is not sustainable but NEM3 in CA (and the upcoming income-based monthly fixed charge) are nothing but utility scams. Last but not least as a matter of public policy I strongly believe encouraging energy independence is a social good. In emergency situations having a few neighbors with enough solar+batteries to keep the lights on is a good for society as a whole. We are in that situation and plan to run a cell phone charging station in our driveway if it ever happened that the grid was down for more than a few hours (eg earthquake/storm/grid collapse). Having an EV also means if we are careful we can charge the car enough to make short or medium trips every few days. Not being beholden to gas tanker trucks or utility operators is great IMHO. I just need to add Starlink for backup internet :)
- beembeem 3y ago
  Thank you. I can't believe how much FUD is out there from IOU (investor owned utilities) lobbyists that the general populace has accepted uncritically as fact. We need to encourage distributed generation by policy for so many reasons, not the least of which is a reduced need for transmission and land use.
- vlovich123 3y ago

flir 3y ago

> It’s not propaganda So how come that rhetoric is only coming out of the US? The rest of the world's distribution networks don't have a problem with residential solar (afaik).

vlovich123 3y ago
What other countries have meaningful residential solar and haven’t had to deal with the problems? Can you cite anything because I can’t find any good resources online, but AFAICT the US and China are leading the world in solar and it’s possible that the US is leading for residential solar on normalized terms (haven’t checked). California is probably one of the places in the world with the largest solar residential install and therefore has the most experience with this vs some dark propaganda conspiracy to keep residential solar down? Trust me, residential solar is hugely popular because you basically have free electricity and the government subsidizing the install cost on top + forcing utilities to buy your electricity generation during the day? The political incentives are for more residential solar, not less. The utilities aren’t popular and you can accuse them of shady shit (& they do engage on it), but in this specific instance it does seem more sincere that people are acting because of the threat that residential solar placed to the financial stability of the grid. And no, residential solar doesn’t remove the need for the grid. https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/california-snags-4-of-the-top-5-most-solar-cities-in-the-u-s_o https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/california-snags... https://ilsr.org/the-states-of-distributed-solar/ https://ilsr.org/the-states-of-distributed-solar/ 4 of the top 5 solar cities in the US are in California. California has stopped with the explicit rebates to fund residential solar and it’s not just because solar prices have dropped - it’s bad policy. Other places are still lagging because they don’t have enough residential solar installed to make it obviously a bad idea. The residential solar market has seen a massive contraction since the state government stopped forcing utilities to subsidize them as much - they’re still subsidizing a bit but they switched from buying back electricity from residential at retail rates & now instead use wholesale which is what they’d pay any other generator (T&D costs are subsidized because the monthly grid hookup rate is still too cheap for these kinds of houses).
- flir 3y ago
  Spain would be the obvious comparison. They're installing rooftop solar like crazy.
  - vlovich123 3y ago
    They’ve literally just started so it’ll take a while for them to see the problems. But already: https://www.solarpaces.org/spain-now-needs-csp-for-grid-stability-study/ https://www.solarpaces.org/spain-now-needs-csp-for-grid-stab... https://energypost.eu/spain-as-renewables-rise-managing-supply-and-demand-is-the-next-challenge/ https://energypost.eu/spain-as-renewables-rise-managing-supp... We’ve already carried out this experiment. Rooftop solar is a luxury good that doesn’t actually reduce fossil fuel dependence. Thankfully Spain has learned the lesson of California & is only giving a wholesale rebate on the bill meaning you’ll never make money from rooftop solar: https://www.ecovidahomes.com/blog/can-you-sell-electricity-back-to-the-grid-in-spain https://www.ecovidahomes.com/blog/can-you-sell-electricity-b... But that doesn’t change the math that using public funds to incentivize rooftop solar is a populist direction that isn’t actually a good idea for the grid. Once enough rooftop solar is installed, watch the grid in Spain start to struggle financially if they haven’t priced the T&D hookup fee correctly (+ expect that fee to rise over time). All that being said, Spain & Europe are slightly different stories - they have a unified electricity grid I believe which lets them export their surplus. Not sure if that actually works for rooftop solar but may help mediate some of the problems that we have in the US.
CorrectHorseBat 3y ago
The Netherlands and Belgium certainly do

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

xenadu02 3y ago

Except the ACC calculation used in CA is absolute nonsense and deliberately uses monthly averaging so you don't get a fair cut. Utilities always want to have their cake and eat it too. They want to pay you almost nothing for power sent to the grid ($0.02) that only considers generation using the most optimistic figures. Then during the worst summer peak times when the spot price for power hits $0.20, $0.50, or even $1.00/kWh you don't get to reap any of that benefit. Thanks to the averaging you still get paid $0.02 and PG&E saves $0.96. If utilities want "fairness" then let them pay the spot price in realtime or to the average of the nearest 15 minutes on a daily basis. Then I could choose to drain my batteries when the spot price hits ultra high marks which makes it worth my while, incentivizes storage, and helps grid stability. This also means you pay for distribution on inbound power but don't get credit on outbound. Even though that saves the utility a little bit on distribution that seems fair. If utilities want to get paid for maintaining grid access then let an independent entity run those numbers and bill it accurately. I don't mind paying a grid access charge if it weren't pulled out of PG&E's ass as a backdoor attempt to kill solar. I agree that making them buy power back at the full retail rate is not sustainable but NEM3 in CA (and the upcoming income-based monthly fixed charge) are nothing but utility scams. Last but not least as a matter of public policy I strongly believe encouraging energy independence is a social good. In emergency situations having a few neighbors with enough solar+batteries to keep the lights on is a good for society as a whole. We are in that situation and plan to run a cell phone charging station in our driveway if it ever happened that the grid was down for more than a few hours (eg earthquake/storm/grid collapse). Having an EV also means if we are careful we can charge the car enough to make short or medium trips every few days. Not being beholden to gas tanker trucks or utility operators is great IMHO. I just need to add Starlink for backup internet :)

beembeem 3y ago
Thank you. I can't believe how much FUD is out there from IOU (investor owned utilities) lobbyists that the general populace has accepted uncritically as fact. We need to encourage distributed generation by policy for so many reasons, not the least of which is a reduced need for transmission and land use.
vlovich123 3y ago