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iirc the transmission and generation was roughly an even split on the 11 billion raised. https://patternenergy.com/pattern-energy-closes-11-billion-financing-o

iirc the transmission and generation was roughly an even split on the 11 billion raised. https://patternenergy.com/pattern-energy-closes-11-billion-financing-of-largest-clean-energy-infrastructure-project-in-u-s-history/ https://patternenergy.com/pattern-energy-closes-11-billion-f...

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
So assuming 25 to 45% capacity factor, $10k to $18k per effective kW. Depreciate that linearly over 20 year's and you get 5.8 to 10.5¢ per kWh before maintenance and operations. Given Arizona pays about 16¢/kWh, the project seems likely to be viable.
- epistasis 3y ago
  You are lumping together the transmission and generation costs, which will have different service lifetimes. Wind turbines are 30+, but advances in technology and falling costs have incentivized many wind farms to repower with bigger turbines far before the end of service life in order to increase profitability.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > lumping together the transmission and generation costs, which will have different service lifetimes Sure, it’s back of the envelope. If you have more precise figures I’m genuinely curious.
    - mikeyouse 3y ago
      An adjacent 350MW project from the same owners has a 46% capacity factor and signed a 20-year agreement for $0.04/kWh (they did qualify for the PTC so their 'real' cost is $0.06/kWh) - this project will surely be well under $0.10/kwh wholesale as well: > In the event Red Cloud qualifies for 100 percent of the PTC, the energy price will be reduced by $2.00 per MWh and the new energy price will be $41.00 per MWh. The price for Test Energy will be reduced to $30.25 per MWh and Excess Energy will be reduced to $16.40 per MWh. https://clkrep.lacity.org/onlinedocs/2020/20-1217_misc_09-24-2020.pdf https://clkrep.lacity.org/onlinedocs/2020/20-1217_misc_09-24...
    - epistasis 3y ago
      The best estimate was the 50% in the comment with the original link, which would correspond to $120/mile for transmission, which IIRC is right in the correct ballpark.
- guepe 3y ago
  Example in UK, offshore (with higher costs than onshore) are about 60 pounds/mwh (lcoe, so all included). That's 6 cents /kwh and this is offshore But UK has lots of offshore wind. Still the 10cents upper range is probably quite a bit higher than the real number here.
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  Wholesale electricity prices generally range from $0.01 to $0.1 per kWh in the US. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/wholesale-markets.php https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/wholesale-mar...
epistasis 3y ago
~$100/mile really highlights the challenge of transmission. Already, our transmission and distribution costs are more expensive than generation costs. Utilities want us to ignore these costs, as unavoidably, because they get to "rate base" T&D costs and charge a fixed rate of profit, meaning that anything extra they can spend on T&D is more profit that, without any competition. This is why residential solar get such stiff propaganda against it by utilities, going as far to say that residential solar "freeloads" on the grid, rather than saving everybody costs on the grid by reducing the peak needs of T&D. With wind, perhaps these transmission costs are somewhat unavoidable, but solar can be place elsewhere, and all solar that avoided this doubling of costs due to extra T&D costs should be highly encouraged by everyone (except the utilities, who lose out on profit).
- vlovich123 3y ago
  I find it hard to believe that truly self-sustained residential solar (solar panels + batteries all local) is going to be net cheaper than centralized grid generation. The maintenance costs should be significantly higher, particularly for the batteries. It’s not propaganda. The reason it’s freeloading is that you’re still connected to the grid and thus the T&D costs are still there as they’re largely fixed. Utilities have done a poor job of pricing T&D costs correctly (your hookup cost is massively subsidized on the assumption that you will consume an average amount of energy from the grid). Additionally, for a long time (at least in California) utilities were forced to buy back your excess electricity at retail instead of wholesale rates (even if they didn’t need it & they can’t really control electricity you generate like they can with power plants). Residential solar is a greedy tragedy of the commons solution that is subsidized by everyone else. And if everyone had residential solar + batteries + no grid hookup, someone would have to do the analysis if the maintenance cost vs T&D.
  - flir 3y ago
    > It’s not propaganda So how come that rhetoric is only coming out of the US? The rest of the world's distribution networks don't have a problem with residential solar (afaik).

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

So assuming 25 to 45% capacity factor, $10k to $18k per effective kW. Depreciate that linearly over 20 year's and you get 5.8 to 10.5¢ per kWh before maintenance and operations. Given Arizona pays about 16¢/kWh, the project seems likely to be viable.

epistasis 3y ago
You are lumping together the transmission and generation costs, which will have different service lifetimes. Wind turbines are 30+, but advances in technology and falling costs have incentivized many wind farms to repower with bigger turbines far before the end of service life in order to increase profitability.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > lumping together the transmission and generation costs, which will have different service lifetimes Sure, it’s back of the envelope. If you have more precise figures I’m genuinely curious.
  - mikeyouse 3y ago
    An adjacent 350MW project from the same owners has a 46% capacity factor and signed a 20-year agreement for $0.04/kWh (they did qualify for the PTC so their 'real' cost is $0.06/kWh) - this project will surely be well under $0.10/kwh wholesale as well: > In the event Red Cloud qualifies for 100 percent of the PTC, the energy price will be reduced by $2.00 per MWh and the new energy price will be $41.00 per MWh. The price for Test Energy will be reduced to $30.25 per MWh and Excess Energy will be reduced to $16.40 per MWh. https://clkrep.lacity.org/onlinedocs/2020/20-1217_misc_09-24-2020.pdf https://clkrep.lacity.org/onlinedocs/2020/20-1217_misc_09-24...
  - epistasis 3y ago
    The best estimate was the 50% in the comment with the original link, which would correspond to $120/mile for transmission, which IIRC is right in the correct ballpark.
guepe 3y ago
Example in UK, offshore (with higher costs than onshore) are about 60 pounds/mwh (lcoe, so all included). That's 6 cents /kwh and this is offshore But UK has lots of offshore wind. Still the 10cents upper range is probably quite a bit higher than the real number here.
HDThoreaun 3y ago
Wholesale electricity prices generally range from $0.01 to $0.1 per kWh in the US. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/wholesale-markets.php https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/wholesale-mar...

epistasis 3y ago

~$100/mile really highlights the challenge of transmission. Already, our transmission and distribution costs are more expensive than generation costs. Utilities want us to ignore these costs, as unavoidably, because they get to "rate base" T&D costs and charge a fixed rate of profit, meaning that anything extra they can spend on T&D is more profit that, without any competition. This is why residential solar get such stiff propaganda against it by utilities, going as far to say that residential solar "freeloads" on the grid, rather than saving everybody costs on the grid by reducing the peak needs of T&D. With wind, perhaps these transmission costs are somewhat unavoidable, but solar can be place elsewhere, and all solar that avoided this doubling of costs due to extra T&D costs should be highly encouraged by everyone (except the utilities, who lose out on profit).

vlovich123 3y ago
I find it hard to believe that truly self-sustained residential solar (solar panels + batteries all local) is going to be net cheaper than centralized grid generation. The maintenance costs should be significantly higher, particularly for the batteries. It’s not propaganda. The reason it’s freeloading is that you’re still connected to the grid and thus the T&D costs are still there as they’re largely fixed. Utilities have done a poor job of pricing T&D costs correctly (your hookup cost is massively subsidized on the assumption that you will consume an average amount of energy from the grid). Additionally, for a long time (at least in California) utilities were forced to buy back your excess electricity at retail instead of wholesale rates (even if they didn’t need it & they can’t really control electricity you generate like they can with power plants). Residential solar is a greedy tragedy of the commons solution that is subsidized by everyone else. And if everyone had residential solar + batteries + no grid hookup, someone would have to do the analysis if the maintenance cost vs T&D.
- flir 3y ago
  > It’s not propaganda So how come that rhetoric is only coming out of the US? The rest of the world's distribution networks don't have a problem with residential solar (afaik).