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Another explanation: Interstellar travel takes so long that any lifeform attempting it would be extinct by the time it arrived. Accordingly, intelligent lifefo

Another explanation: Interstellar travel takes so long that any lifeform attempting it would be extinct by the time it arrived. Accordingly, intelligent lifeforms don't attempt it (and lifeforms lacking intelligence can't). We don't see VN probes because they're pointless from the POV of the sending civilization: by the time the probe's return signal reached home, the sending civilization would be extinct, and it knows it, so it doesn't bother. We're at a stage in our development where just one lifetime ago, we didn't know other stars had planets, we didn't know there were other galaxies, and no human had ever been to space. We're still wide-eyed about the idea of space travel. But really, space travel is so difficult and expensive that almost any other use of resources has a better ROI. In a coupla hundred years we'll have calmed down (if we're still around). Why no VN probes? Perhaps we don't know what to look for; it's pretty anthropomorphic to imagine they're going to look like Voyager 2. Or perhaps VN probes are just silly; there's no point in sending a probe to a distant star, if we'll all be extinct before it arrives.

jareklupinski 3y ago
> it's pretty anthropomorphic to imagine they're going to look like Voyager 2 i think that's why everyone was so interested in that asteroid that was behaving just a little bit unlike every other rock: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua
MilStdJunkie 3y ago
Although the prose and storytelling is . . non-optimal . . I found Stross' explanation for the Fermi problem extremely convincing, from the novel Accelerando[1]. I think it's sort-of called the Bandwidth Explanation. Basically, the apparent lack of intelligent life in the universe is an illusion created by a shortage of bandwidth. I'm going to try and work through it here. As a civilization spreads, the outer nodes get "dumber" as the speed of light begins to cut into bandwidth/response. So agents get much more bang for their buck increasing their complexity while staying inside the light-second (or light-hour, with caching) sphere, right up until computational complexity is nearing the atomic level (i.e., "computronium"). So you get these planetary-sized shells of computronium, bound by the bandwidth limit of C. Human-equivalent intelligence gets a simulation space that's larger than a few hundred thousand Earths[0]. I'm probably not explaining it all that well, but Accelerando is free on the internet[1]. Like I said - not amazing literature, but pretty neat ideas. The sad part of all this is that civilizations reach this hard halt where they've converted their systems into computronium - they come to a sudden halt, and no way to press on outwards, as they're all held in thrall to the light sphere. [0] I challenge the notion of "simulation space" or even the notion that "downloaded humans" would stay human for very long (they wouldn't). Another problem: Stross' system is a little bit magical in terms of its infrastructure, because a fog of undifferentiated laser-connected micro-computers is going to have terrible latency across a 1 AU distance, and there's no way for a central authority to route things. But Stross is way smarter than I am . . so who knows? [1] https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/fiction/accelerando/accelerando-intro.html https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/fiction/acceler... [1.a] Unrelated, but check out "A Colder War", also downloadable. CIA Cold War shenanigans meets Cthulhu! Features some obscure Cambrian species. This sent me down a rabbit hole of learning about the incredible early animals of our planet's history.

jareklupinski 3y ago

> it's pretty anthropomorphic to imagine they're going to look like Voyager 2 i think that's why everyone was so interested in that asteroid that was behaving just a little bit unlike every other rock: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua

MilStdJunkie 3y ago

Although the prose and storytelling is . . non-optimal . . I found Stross' explanation for the Fermi problem extremely convincing, from the novel Accelerando[1]. I think it's sort-of called the Bandwidth Explanation. Basically, the apparent lack of intelligent life in the universe is an illusion created by a shortage of bandwidth. I'm going to try and work through it here. As a civilization spreads, the outer nodes get "dumber" as the speed of light begins to cut into bandwidth/response. So agents get much more bang for their buck increasing their complexity while staying inside the light-second (or light-hour, with caching) sphere, right up until computational complexity is nearing the atomic level (i.e., "computronium"). So you get these planetary-sized shells of computronium, bound by the bandwidth limit of C. Human-equivalent intelligence gets a simulation space that's larger than a few hundred thousand Earths[0]. I'm probably not explaining it all that well, but Accelerando is free on the internet[1]. Like I said - not amazing literature, but pretty neat ideas. The sad part of all this is that civilizations reach this hard halt where they've converted their systems into computronium - they come to a sudden halt, and no way to press on outwards, as they're all held in thrall to the light sphere. [0] I challenge the notion of "simulation space" or even the notion that "downloaded humans" would stay human for very long (they wouldn't). Another problem: Stross' system is a little bit magical in terms of its infrastructure, because a fog of undifferentiated laser-connected micro-computers is going to have terrible latency across a 1 AU distance, and there's no way for a central authority to route things. But Stross is way smarter than I am . . so who knows? [1] https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/fiction/accelerando/accelerando-intro.html https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/fiction/acceler... [1.a] Unrelated, but check out "A Colder War", also downloadable. CIA Cold War shenanigans meets Cthulhu! Features some obscure Cambrian species. This sent me down a rabbit hole of learning about the incredible early animals of our planet's history.