3 ms·
I haven't read the article and I have no experience in the relevant field, but I think it's a simple idea: P(disease|sugar) = 50 * P(disease|calories from sugar
by tikhonj 15y ago
I haven't read the article and I have no experience in the relevant field, but I think it's a simple idea: P(disease|sugar) = 50 * P(disease|calories from sugar).
That is, if all you know is that you've consumed n calories, we think you probably you have probability p of getting the disease; if you've consumed n calories' worth of sugar, we think you have probability 50p of getting the disease.
- monkeypizza 15y agoThe problem is that you can't just multiply probabilities like that... How about: P(disease|calories) = P(disease|calories from sugar) + P(disease|calories not from sugar) So it might mean: P(disease|calories from sugar) =0.05 P(disease|calories not from sugar)=0.01