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I think getting killed by a meteorite is in that order of magnitude. But it is a bit of a tricky question. Because you can get hit by a small space rock, it ha
by GuB-42 3y ago
I think getting killed by a meteorite is in that order of magnitude.
But it is a bit of a tricky question. Because you can get hit by a small space rock, it has already happened but it is extremely rare, much less than 1 in a million, and I don't know if there is a record of anyone dying from it. But there is also a small chance of a massive impact killing billions in our lifetime, and intermediate scale events like if the Tunguska event happened in a populated area.
- nine_k 3y agoThere are records of people killed by meteorites, literally in single digits. A simple statistical test would give you an idea. With 10B people on Earth, a "one in a million per lifetime chance" would happen to 10M people during their lifetimes. If we optimistically assume that a lifetime is 100 years, and the chances do not change with age, the event would affect 100k people every year.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 3y agohmm, looks like someone forgot how many millions are in a billion. Those millennials.
- Snow_Falls 3y agoYour calculation is wrong, there are a thousand millions to the billion. If there was a 1/1,000,000 chance across 10 billion people, it would be 10,000 people affected.
- nine_k 3y agoYou are correct, and I am not! Then the "one in a million per lifetime" chance would be an event that happens to about a hundred people every year, on average. Winning a big lottery is within the right ballpark. Flying to space is definitely more rare.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]