I lean toward thinking that if it seems nonobvious, then you're clearly not in a great position to be making "long bets", no? If you're making $1MM bets with 10

I lean toward thinking that if it seems nonobvious, then you're clearly not in a great position to be making "long bets", no? If you're making $1MM bets with 10-year timescales, I expect you to either understand this or rightly burn a quarter of your bet value over it. It's not specialized knowledge or anything, it's practically foundational to American retirement planning.