5 ms·
It's a little less funny if you look at the inflation adjusted numbers: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.ne
by nkurz 3y ago
It's a little less funny if you look at the inflation adjusted numbers: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat...
There have been quite a few 10-year and longer spans where the S&P 500 doesn't beat inflation. Did you realize that if you had invested in 1965 it would have taken you until 1990 to beat inflation? And that if you had invested at the peak in 2000, it would have taken you until 2015?
Even apart from inflation, there's some recent research which suggests that historically the stock market as a whole just hasn't performed as well as most people think. This paper was submitted by the author a few days ago but got no discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38835832 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38835832.
I'm not saying you're wrong, and I too hope something has changed, but do realize you might be assuming without sufficient evidence that the recent past is normal behavior. By historical standards, 2008 to 2022 really was an anomalous bull run.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- hhs 3y ago> By historical standards, 2008 to 2022 really was an anomalous bull run. And interestingly, the rise of intangible assets over time: https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/boom-of-intangible-assets-felt-across-industries-and-economy/ https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/boom-of-intangible-assets-f...
- sega_sai 3y agoThe statement about 1965 is not correct if you take into account dividends. The longest periods of being down (in real terms) is 1973-1985, 2000-2013, 1937-1945, 1916-1925 ( https://observablehq.com/@tcgarvin/shiller-sp500 https://observablehq.com/@tcgarvin/shiller-sp500 )
- tdullien 3y agoI graduated from high school in 2000, and sold my first company to Google in 2011, insisting on cash and not stock given the performance of the market through my entire adult life ;)
- bombcar 3y agoThe brilliant play is to be like the elves and say both yea and nay. 50/50 and either way you can look brilliant!
- nkurz 3y agoThank you for the correction. I had mistakenly thought that the chart was total returns rather than just index price, but looking closer I think you are right.
- refurb 3y agoYou're ignoring dividends.
- matsemann 3y agoMost people don't invest a single lump sump, but keep investing over time. So even if there is a dip in a 10 year period and it's "only" back to start after those 10 years, all the money one invested during the dip are now in the plus.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago> By historical standards, 2008 to 2022 really was an anomalous bull run. Why leave out 2023?
- nkurz 3y agoBecause I meant "through to the beginning of 2022", with the bulk of 2022 not being included in the run. 2023 was definitely up, but whether it will be interpreted as a continuation of the previous run, a brief reprieve, or the jittery start of a new bear market will probably depend on what happens going forward.