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Their arms industry is not in good shape. They are buying drones from Iran and short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea. They recently touted their "hype

Their arms industry is not in good shape. They are buying drones from Iran and short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea. They recently touted their "hypersonic" missiles as "invincible" in some very high profile statements, but newer Patriot SAM batteries (which those of us who are old enough associate with, let's just say, something other than greatness) are capable of downing those, as proven by the Ukrainians. I don't know how many fighters Russia is still selling after the poor performance of its air force during the Ukrainian conflict but, I don't know... given who they normally sell to, I hope it's a lot. Lots of crappy fighters. (not to discount the might of their propeller-driven strategic bomber force, of course)

elzbardico 3y ago
Lots of military analysts consider it unlikely that the patriot have ever intercepted even a single one of those hypersonic missiles. Given the failure of the Patriot system to protect the Saudi from the primitive Houthi missiles I think that those analysts have a point. Ukraine is sometimes too enthusiastic on the information war front, to put it mildly.
- justin66 3y ago
  I'm pretty sure those reports were confirmed by Raytheon as well, not that anyone involved is above lying. In any case I don't think my larger point about Russia's arms industry being a mess really turns on this point.
tivert 3y ago
> Their arms industry is not in good shape. They are buying drones from Iran and short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea. To be perfectly honest, neither is the US/NATO arms industry. IIRC, it also cannot replace missiles and artillery shells at the rate they're being consumed in Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weapons-ukraine-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weap...: > His open frustration reflects a problem that has become worryingly apparent as the Pentagon dispatches its own stocks of weapons to help Ukraine hold off Russia and Washington warily watches for signs that China might provoke a new conflict by invading Taiwan: The United States lacks the capacity to produce the arms that the nation and its allies need at a time of heightened superpower tensions. > Industry consolidation, depleted manufacturing lines and supply chain issues have combined to constrain the production of basic ammunition like artillery shells while also prompting concern about building adequate reserves of more sophisticated weapons including missiles, air defense systems and counter-artillery radar. > ... > In the first 10 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting Washington to approve $33 billion in military aid so far, the United States sent Ukraine so many Stinger missiles from its own stocks that it would take 13 years’ worth of production at recent capacity levels to replace them. It has sent so many Javelin missiles that it would take five years at last year’s rates to replace them, according to Raytheon, the company that helps make the missile systems. > If a large-scale war broke out with China, within about one week the United States would run out of so-called long-range anti-ship missiles, a vital weapon in any engagement with China, according to a series of war-game exercises conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
- justin66 3y ago
  It's a strange comparison. Russia's industry is fighting for all they're worth, and Russia is still buying equipment from Iran and North Korea. The US and EU are barely even showing up. The US is just kicking down whatever old hardware Congress will allow them to, and paying for replacements. There's some indication things might change. Rheinmetall is planning to build a new plant to help out Ukraine - in Ukraine! But in general, the problem is still that the NATO countries aren't spending enough. It's a fairly different problem than what Russia has to contend with: industries that are just barely on the ragged edge of being capable. (which isn't to say Russia aren't capable of doing a great deal of harm...)
  - tivert 3y ago
    > It's a strange comparison. Russia's industry is fighting for all they're worth, and Russia is still buying equipment from Iran and North Korea. In Western propaganda, that's portrayed as a desperate move, but I don't think it is. The only reason the US isn't buying equipment for Ukraine from Iran and North Korea is geopolitics. North Korea has a shit-ton of Soviet-compatible artillery shells stockpiled, which have suddenly become extremely valuable. Russia would be foolishly playing with one hand tied behind it's back if it didn't take advantage of that available resource. > The US and EU are barely even showing up. The US is just kicking down whatever old hardware Congress will allow them to, and paying for replacements. There are looong lead times on many of those replacements. The US's production is insufficient, so it is being forced to do things like buying (export restricted) artillery shells from South Korea to free up US-made stockpiles to supply Ukraine. I see a lot of indications that the US/NATO would quickly run out of missiles in a hot war just like Russia has.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]

elzbardico 3y ago

Lots of military analysts consider it unlikely that the patriot have ever intercepted even a single one of those hypersonic missiles. Given the failure of the Patriot system to protect the Saudi from the primitive Houthi missiles I think that those analysts have a point. Ukraine is sometimes too enthusiastic on the information war front, to put it mildly.

justin66 3y ago
I'm pretty sure those reports were confirmed by Raytheon as well, not that anyone involved is above lying. In any case I don't think my larger point about Russia's arms industry being a mess really turns on this point.

tivert 3y ago

> Their arms industry is not in good shape. They are buying drones from Iran and short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea. To be perfectly honest, neither is the US/NATO arms industry. IIRC, it also cannot replace missiles and artillery shells at the rate they're being consumed in Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weapons-ukraine-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weap...: > His open frustration reflects a problem that has become worryingly apparent as the Pentagon dispatches its own stocks of weapons to help Ukraine hold off Russia and Washington warily watches for signs that China might provoke a new conflict by invading Taiwan: The United States lacks the capacity to produce the arms that the nation and its allies need at a time of heightened superpower tensions. > Industry consolidation, depleted manufacturing lines and supply chain issues have combined to constrain the production of basic ammunition like artillery shells while also prompting concern about building adequate reserves of more sophisticated weapons including missiles, air defense systems and counter-artillery radar. > ... > In the first 10 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting Washington to approve $33 billion in military aid so far, the United States sent Ukraine so many Stinger missiles from its own stocks that it would take 13 years’ worth of production at recent capacity levels to replace them. It has sent so many Javelin missiles that it would take five years at last year’s rates to replace them, according to Raytheon, the company that helps make the missile systems. > If a large-scale war broke out with China, within about one week the United States would run out of so-called long-range anti-ship missiles, a vital weapon in any engagement with China, according to a series of war-game exercises conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

justin66 3y ago
It's a strange comparison. Russia's industry is fighting for all they're worth, and Russia is still buying equipment from Iran and North Korea. The US and EU are barely even showing up. The US is just kicking down whatever old hardware Congress will allow them to, and paying for replacements. There's some indication things might change. Rheinmetall is planning to build a new plant to help out Ukraine - in Ukraine! But in general, the problem is still that the NATO countries aren't spending enough. It's a fairly different problem than what Russia has to contend with: industries that are just barely on the ragged edge of being capable. (which isn't to say Russia aren't capable of doing a great deal of harm...)
- tivert 3y ago
  > It's a strange comparison. Russia's industry is fighting for all they're worth, and Russia is still buying equipment from Iran and North Korea. In Western propaganda, that's portrayed as a desperate move, but I don't think it is. The only reason the US isn't buying equipment for Ukraine from Iran and North Korea is geopolitics. North Korea has a shit-ton of Soviet-compatible artillery shells stockpiled, which have suddenly become extremely valuable. Russia would be foolishly playing with one hand tied behind it's back if it didn't take advantage of that available resource. > The US and EU are barely even showing up. The US is just kicking down whatever old hardware Congress will allow them to, and paying for replacements. There are looong lead times on many of those replacements. The US's production is insufficient, so it is being forced to do things like buying (export restricted) artillery shells from South Korea to free up US-made stockpiles to supply Ukraine. I see a lot of indications that the US/NATO would quickly run out of missiles in a hot war just like Russia has.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]