4 ms·

Russia’s arms industry is largely domestic. They can always pay for domestic labor and materials in Rubles so money, by which you presumably mean dollars, isn’t

by User23 3y ago

Russia’s arms industry is largely domestic. They can always pay for domestic labor and materials in Rubles so money, by which you presumably mean dollars, isn’t a constraint. If you doubt me just look how little the sanctions have actually hurt them militarily.

irjustin 3y ago
The problem usually is in advanced electronics. Russia doesn't have everything it needs to build+maintain these systems. Obviously with sanctions these parts are near impossible to come by in quantity, but if you're looking to maintain a few missiles it shouldn't be too hard to smuggle it.
- elzbardico 3y ago
  You don't need 3nm technology for missile systems. Russia is stuck at 140nm/70nm with no visible path forward but this is more than enough for this kind of application. They don't have now access to super-computing for running complicated simulations, and will probably have to do some live testing in the coming years if the Chinese doesn't sell them a few supercomputers.
  - irjustin 3y ago
    > You don't need 3nm technology for missile systems. > Russia is stuck at 140nm/70nm with no visible path forward but this is more than enough for this kind of application. Latest fab processes isn't the problem I was referring to (but it could be part of it). It's the knowledge+expertise for controls systems. This could be guidance, detonation, communications, etc. If any of those systems were imported they're now forced to either source the chips or develop it in country. Developing it on shore is way more than a "140nm/70nm" process. You'll have to reverse engineer the current chip to communicate with all the other chips it has to communicate with. What if the chip you need to replace uses a smaller fab process? You possibly have to replace the sub-system. Well now you better hope you have the expertise to build that system AND have it work with all the other systems. How long would that take? How expensive is it just to maintain your capabilities vs before? Again, for the few missiles, smuggling seems way better. Your ROI on black market cost for missile parts that never get used is amazing vs say a fleet of tanks.
    - elzbardico 3y ago
      You're underestimating Russian capabilities a lot if you think they are scrambling to substitute parts for missiles and that they have no knowledge-expertise for control systems. A lot of people seem to think that Russia is still stuck in the malaise years of post-soviet Yeltsin administration, when in fact, this couldn't be further from the truth. There are several fields where Russia is far ahead of the west, like AD a EW. In fact, the F-35 design was centered on stealth to the detriment of range and payload specifically to be able to counter the threat of Soviet SAMs. Of course, a lot of their civilian manufacture depended on cheaper, less power hungry and more advanced western chips. Also, for ground applications, simulation and design tasks we can be pretty sure that they use western technology and now are having to resort to smuggling. But for the guts of weapon systems? Radars and Military Glonass systems? Very unlikely that they depend on western chips for that.
justin66 3y ago
Their arms industry is not in good shape. They are buying drones from Iran and short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea. They recently touted their "hypersonic" missiles as "invincible" in some very high profile statements, but newer Patriot SAM batteries (which those of us who are old enough associate with, let's just say, something other than greatness) are capable of downing those, as proven by the Ukrainians. I don't know how many fighters Russia is still selling after the poor performance of its air force during the Ukrainian conflict but, I don't know... given who they normally sell to, I hope it's a lot. Lots of crappy fighters. (not to discount the might of their propeller-driven strategic bomber force, of course)
- elzbardico 3y ago
  Lots of military analysts consider it unlikely that the patriot have ever intercepted even a single one of those hypersonic missiles. Given the failure of the Patriot system to protect the Saudi from the primitive Houthi missiles I think that those analysts have a point. Ukraine is sometimes too enthusiastic on the information war front, to put it mildly.
  - justin66 3y ago
    I'm pretty sure those reports were confirmed by Raytheon as well, not that anyone involved is above lying. In any case I don't think my larger point about Russia's arms industry being a mess really turns on this point.
- tivert 3y ago
  > Their arms industry is not in good shape. They are buying drones from Iran and short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea. To be perfectly honest, neither is the US/NATO arms industry. IIRC, it also cannot replace missiles and artillery shells at the rate they're being consumed in Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weapons-ukraine-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weap...: > His open frustration reflects a problem that has become worryingly apparent as the Pentagon dispatches its own stocks of weapons to help Ukraine hold off Russia and Washington warily watches for signs that China might provoke a new conflict by invading Taiwan: The United States lacks the capacity to produce the arms that the nation and its allies need at a time of heightened superpower tensions. > Industry consolidation, depleted manufacturing lines and supply chain issues have combined to constrain the production of basic ammunition like artillery shells while also prompting concern about building adequate reserves of more sophisticated weapons including missiles, air defense systems and counter-artillery radar. > ... > In the first 10 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting Washington to approve $33 billion in military aid so far, the United States sent Ukraine so many Stinger missiles from its own stocks that it would take 13 years’ worth of production at recent capacity levels to replace them. It has sent so many Javelin missiles that it would take five years at last year’s rates to replace them, according to Raytheon, the company that helps make the missile systems. > If a large-scale war broke out with China, within about one week the United States would run out of so-called long-range anti-ship missiles, a vital weapon in any engagement with China, according to a series of war-game exercises conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

by User23 3y ago

irjustin 3y ago

The problem usually is in advanced electronics. Russia doesn't have everything it needs to build+maintain these systems. Obviously with sanctions these parts are near impossible to come by in quantity, but if you're looking to maintain a few missiles it shouldn't be too hard to smuggle it.

elzbardico 3y ago
You don't need 3nm technology for missile systems. Russia is stuck at 140nm/70nm with no visible path forward but this is more than enough for this kind of application. They don't have now access to super-computing for running complicated simulations, and will probably have to do some live testing in the coming years if the Chinese doesn't sell them a few supercomputers.
- irjustin 3y ago
  > You don't need 3nm technology for missile systems. > Russia is stuck at 140nm/70nm with no visible path forward but this is more than enough for this kind of application. Latest fab processes isn't the problem I was referring to (but it could be part of it). It's the knowledge+expertise for controls systems. This could be guidance, detonation, communications, etc. If any of those systems were imported they're now forced to either source the chips or develop it in country. Developing it on shore is way more than a "140nm/70nm" process. You'll have to reverse engineer the current chip to communicate with all the other chips it has to communicate with. What if the chip you need to replace uses a smaller fab process? You possibly have to replace the sub-system. Well now you better hope you have the expertise to build that system AND have it work with all the other systems. How long would that take? How expensive is it just to maintain your capabilities vs before? Again, for the few missiles, smuggling seems way better. Your ROI on black market cost for missile parts that never get used is amazing vs say a fleet of tanks.
  - elzbardico 3y ago
    You're underestimating Russian capabilities a lot if you think they are scrambling to substitute parts for missiles and that they have no knowledge-expertise for control systems. A lot of people seem to think that Russia is still stuck in the malaise years of post-soviet Yeltsin administration, when in fact, this couldn't be further from the truth. There are several fields where Russia is far ahead of the west, like AD a EW. In fact, the F-35 design was centered on stealth to the detriment of range and payload specifically to be able to counter the threat of Soviet SAMs. Of course, a lot of their civilian manufacture depended on cheaper, less power hungry and more advanced western chips. Also, for ground applications, simulation and design tasks we can be pretty sure that they use western technology and now are having to resort to smuggling. But for the guts of weapon systems? Radars and Military Glonass systems? Very unlikely that they depend on western chips for that.

justin66 3y ago

Their arms industry is not in good shape. They are buying drones from Iran and short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea. They recently touted their "hypersonic" missiles as "invincible" in some very high profile statements, but newer Patriot SAM batteries (which those of us who are old enough associate with, let's just say, something other than greatness) are capable of downing those, as proven by the Ukrainians. I don't know how many fighters Russia is still selling after the poor performance of its air force during the Ukrainian conflict but, I don't know... given who they normally sell to, I hope it's a lot. Lots of crappy fighters. (not to discount the might of their propeller-driven strategic bomber force, of course)

elzbardico 3y ago
Lots of military analysts consider it unlikely that the patriot have ever intercepted even a single one of those hypersonic missiles. Given the failure of the Patriot system to protect the Saudi from the primitive Houthi missiles I think that those analysts have a point. Ukraine is sometimes too enthusiastic on the information war front, to put it mildly.
- justin66 3y ago
  I'm pretty sure those reports were confirmed by Raytheon as well, not that anyone involved is above lying. In any case I don't think my larger point about Russia's arms industry being a mess really turns on this point.
tivert 3y ago
> Their arms industry is not in good shape. They are buying drones from Iran and short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea. To be perfectly honest, neither is the US/NATO arms industry. IIRC, it also cannot replace missiles and artillery shells at the rate they're being consumed in Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weapons-ukraine-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weap...: > His open frustration reflects a problem that has become worryingly apparent as the Pentagon dispatches its own stocks of weapons to help Ukraine hold off Russia and Washington warily watches for signs that China might provoke a new conflict by invading Taiwan: The United States lacks the capacity to produce the arms that the nation and its allies need at a time of heightened superpower tensions. > Industry consolidation, depleted manufacturing lines and supply chain issues have combined to constrain the production of basic ammunition like artillery shells while also prompting concern about building adequate reserves of more sophisticated weapons including missiles, air defense systems and counter-artillery radar. > ... > In the first 10 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting Washington to approve $33 billion in military aid so far, the United States sent Ukraine so many Stinger missiles from its own stocks that it would take 13 years’ worth of production at recent capacity levels to replace them. It has sent so many Javelin missiles that it would take five years at last year’s rates to replace them, according to Raytheon, the company that helps make the missile systems. > If a large-scale war broke out with China, within about one week the United States would run out of so-called long-range anti-ship missiles, a vital weapon in any engagement with China, according to a series of war-game exercises conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.