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I don't think that's generally true, especially if you build nuclear as cost effectively as China does.

by jupp0r 3y ago

matthewdgreen 3y ago
China is building vastly more solar and wind than they are solar. And nuclear construction has slowed down noticeably as wind+PV has accelerated in the past few years.
- defrost 3y ago
  The International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2023 report outlines China has having an extensive expansion of both nuclear and renewables driving a decrease in China's coal use mid this decade. It also asserts that China is behind 30% of all new nuclear power builds (under construction). https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uncertainty-is-key-ieas-hopes-chinas-energy-transition-russell-2023-10-24/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uncertainty-is-key-i... https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023/execut... (D/L full 355 page PDF) https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/42b23c45-78bc-4482-b0f9-eb826ae2da3d/WorldEnergyOutlook2023.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/42b23c45-78bc-4482-...
  - matthewdgreen 3y ago
    This gives a picture of the current rate of deployment, may not include the current year which was even more extreme. https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/661dc49b524b0dd9f1ad1d746c43465741b069f6.png https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/661dc49b524b0dd9f1ad...
    - defrost 3y ago
      That provides nothing of substance without an attributed source for the raw data. Taken at face value it shows 40TW or so coming online every four years or so, although the graph was created by an inummerate *. * Here's a good question for you: why (on earth, why!!) would anyone put a continuous spline through additional power stations coming on line (very discrete, very burst data)? If it's all the same to you I'll stick with the IEA assessment.
      - ViewTrick1002 3y ago
        Agree the chart the author chose is awful. An aot comparison is that China added more wind and solar the past nine months than all of its nuclear reactors under construction will provide. Yes, that includes capacity factor. https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718 https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718
        defrost 3y ago
        I have no doubt that China's renewable energy additions outweigh its nuclear additions - that's covered in the IEA report I cited. The claim made above that I responded to was: And nuclear construction has slowed down noticeably which I've yet to see supported by a credible reference. Even if the awful chart is correct in it's raw source data it only addresses recent nuclear power coming online and not the amount currently under construction ... which may be more, less, or about the same as past construction. If it helps I'm ambivilant about nuclear V solar other than pragmatically recognising that renewables need a small constant baseload given human consumption (which is a whole other discussion), however I'm always alarmed about figures thrown about with no credible cited data .. and awful awful charts make me queasy.
        matthewdgreen 3y ago
        China’s new reactor construction has slowed in recent years, and their deployment of wind and PV has surged. I’m fascinated by this because I think it’s going to be one of the most important stories of the 21st century. I’d be fascinated as well if things were going the other way. This is the point of the chart I grabbed from a collection of thirty similar charts, solely because it illustrated the same trend with slightly more recent data. You can verify these facts easily yourself in less time than it takes to post to HN, from any number of sources (which will also give you the number of reactors under construction, etc.), there’s no need to pose easily-answered questions implying that maybe the trend is incorrect due to other factors, when you can easily satisfy your curiosity about those factors with a few minutes of research. TL;DR: more intellectual curiosity, less noisy argument.

I don't think that's generally true, especially if you build nuclear as cost effectively as China does.

by jupp0r 3y ago

I don't think that's generally true, especially if you build nuclear as cost effectively as China does.

China is building vastly more solar and wind than they are solar. And nuclear construction has slowed down noticeably as wind+PV has accelerated in the past few years.

defrost 3y ago
The International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2023 report outlines China has having an extensive expansion of both nuclear and renewables driving a decrease in China's coal use mid this decade. It also asserts that China is behind 30% of all new nuclear power builds (under construction). https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uncertainty-is-key-ieas-hopes-chinas-energy-transition-russell-2023-10-24/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uncertainty-is-key-i... https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023/execut... (D/L full 355 page PDF) https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/42b23c45-78bc-4482-b0f9-eb826ae2da3d/WorldEnergyOutlook2023.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/42b23c45-78bc-4482-...
- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  This gives a picture of the current rate of deployment, may not include the current year which was even more extreme. https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/661dc49b524b0dd9f1ad1d746c43465741b069f6.png https://illuminem.b-cdn.net/articlebody/661dc49b524b0dd9f1ad...
  - defrost 3y ago
    That provides nothing of substance without an attributed source for the raw data. Taken at face value it shows 40TW or so coming online every four years or so, although the graph was created by an inummerate *. * Here's a good question for you: why (on earth, why!!) would anyone put a continuous spline through additional power stations coming on line (very discrete, very burst data)? If it's all the same to you I'll stick with the IEA assessment.
    - ViewTrick1002 3y ago
      Agree the chart the author chose is awful. An aot comparison is that China added more wind and solar the past nine months than all of its nuclear reactors under construction will provide. Yes, that includes capacity factor. https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718 https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718
      - defrost 3y ago
        I have no doubt that China's renewable energy additions outweigh its nuclear additions - that's covered in the IEA report I cited. The claim made above that I responded to was: And nuclear construction has slowed down noticeably which I've yet to see supported by a credible reference. Even if the awful chart is correct in it's raw source data it only addresses recent nuclear power coming online and not the amount currently under construction ... which may be more, less, or about the same as past construction. If it helps I'm ambivilant about nuclear V solar other than pragmatically recognising that renewables need a small constant baseload given human consumption (which is a whole other discussion), however I'm always alarmed about figures thrown about with no credible cited data .. and awful awful charts make me queasy.
        matthewdgreen 3y ago
        China’s new reactor construction has slowed in recent years, and their deployment of wind and PV has surged. I’m fascinated by this because I think it’s going to be one of the most important stories of the 21st century. I’d be fascinated as well if things were going the other way. This is the point of the chart I grabbed from a collection of thirty similar charts, solely because it illustrated the same trend with slightly more recent data. You can verify these facts easily yourself in less time than it takes to post to HN, from any number of sources (which will also give you the number of reactors under construction, etc.), there’s no need to pose easily-answered questions implying that maybe the trend is incorrect due to other factors, when you can easily satisfy your curiosity about those factors with a few minutes of research. TL;DR: more intellectual curiosity, less noisy argument.