3 ms·
I've been very squeezed for time the last couple of years and have tried to buy my way out of this situation, which is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on huma
by martythemaniak 3y ago
I've been very squeezed for time the last couple of years and have tried to buy my way out of this situation, which is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on humanoid house robots.
I hired landscapers one year for over $3K, they did well but they came once a month. It was way too expensive for what they did. I tried hiring a guy on an ad-hoc basis, he did a bunch of half-assed work for $30/hr, then disappeared leaving a bunch of garbage in my yard. Cleaners are available for an $25+/hr on freelance sites. I have someone coming in right now for $30/hr, and they're ok, but they only do 4-5hr chunks and so the house has to get noticeably dirty for them to be worth it. No one will come for 1hr/day and do laundry, they have transit overheard, scheduling, etc. Snow clearing is $300+ per season, but they don't show up for anything less than 3", which happens only ~5 times per season, and they'll only do it within 24hrs (ie, you're not going to get your snow cleared when you need it, because everyone needs their snow cleared after a huge snowfall, you might actually be stuck in your house). I spent a bunch of time finding a student do clear snow and he came once and then ghosted me.
I could keep ranting, but the point is simple: the reality is people are hard to find, more expensive and less reliable than your post implies. There is a lot of overhead and the end result is that a bunch of work that should get done, simply does not get done.
A $30,000 10 year mortgage at 6% is $11/day, $4000/year. Charging costs are negligible, like a couple of cents per day. My EV moves 2000kg 100km for $1.50, moving clothes and brushes around the house is nowhere near that. Any competitive company will also provide regular OTA updates that makes your robot more capable over time.
The bar for these humanoids to succeed is very low.
- steveBK123 3y agoThe bar for humanoids to succeed may seem low, but think about how we are like 10 years into "FSD next year for sure". In that case, the car already exists! All the computer needs to do is steer/brake an existing automative frame using vision & compute. A humanoid robot needs to essentially deliver the navigation ability that FSD has failed to do, as well as a new robotic humanoid frame. The frame hardware & nav software needs to navigate tighter spaces, with tighter precision (fractions of inches rather than feet) in closer contact with flesh&bloods easily damaged humans (within inches of us rather than multiple feet away on a sidewalk). Think about yard work. Even a half decent yard service has a half dozen bladed tools they wield around your yard. What is your risk appetite for a robot to wield those autonomously around children/pets/neighbors/wildlife/you. Most industrial robots disable themselves if humans are anywhere nearby and a lot of accidents happen when that system fails. It is going to take a lot of confidence to put robots into homes.