3 ms·

Sure, its an interesting goal but it does not seem anywhere near a this-decade deliverable. I'm also less convinced about having all my chores done half-a**sed

Sure, its an interesting goal but it does not seem anywhere near a this-decade deliverable. I'm also less convinced about having all my chores done half-a**sed for $30k up front cost. A $30k investment every 10 years is either going to cost the buyer interest when they finance the purchase, or foregone returns/interest if they keep the lump sum invested. So the true cost is more like $45k. Further, it's now a device you own and are responsible for maintenance/charging/etc I am sure. So now we are talking I dunno, maybe $50k. And at that price .. $30-50k per decade, you could outsource a subset of your chores to specialists to do 100% of the job, and leave yourself with the subset you don't mind. $3k is in the ballpark for an annual yard work budget even in HCOL areas. For $5k annually you could probably outsource your laundry entirely with some light housecleaning. Or you know, find the neighborhood teen (or your own) and see how many $20s it takes to get them to clear your driveway / do your yardwork.

graypegg 3y ago
Efficiency wins out over sci fi coolness, every time. You’re totally right IMO. When it comes to most tasks, I normally care about the task being done, and done to some acceptable level of quality. Hiring someone gives me that for a fraction of the cost, so sorry robots, but it looks like humans are taking your yard work jobs.
turnsout 3y ago
Bipedal robots will be a common thing in industrial/commercial settings within the decade. There is just such a huge financial incentive to create bipedal robots to take over human tasks. $100k for a robot that can work in a warehouse and lasts 10 years working 24/7 is far less than what you’d have to pay two shifts of minimum wage workers.
- steveBK123 3y ago
  Again, my point I made in other parts of thread - B2B use cases, yes. B2C use cases, no. Factories have been designed since the days of Henry Ford's assembly line to treat humans like robots. We have increasingly automated/mechanized the assembly line, introducing robotics of various sorts. So sure, a limited-functionality bipedal robot that costs less than high cost union labor, doesn't go on strike, doesn't take smoke breaks, and doesn't need to eat/rest/sleep is attractive. But as a general purpose home assistant / personal housekeeper we are far far away, and especially for anything remotely affordable even for FAANG types.
martythemaniak 3y ago
I've been very squeezed for time the last couple of years and have tried to buy my way out of this situation, which is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on humanoid house robots. I hired landscapers one year for over $3K, they did well but they came once a month. It was way too expensive for what they did. I tried hiring a guy on an ad-hoc basis, he did a bunch of half-assed work for $30/hr, then disappeared leaving a bunch of garbage in my yard. Cleaners are available for an $25+/hr on freelance sites. I have someone coming in right now for $30/hr, and they're ok, but they only do 4-5hr chunks and so the house has to get noticeably dirty for them to be worth it. No one will come for 1hr/day and do laundry, they have transit overheard, scheduling, etc. Snow clearing is $300+ per season, but they don't show up for anything less than 3", which happens only ~5 times per season, and they'll only do it within 24hrs (ie, you're not going to get your snow cleared when you need it, because everyone needs their snow cleared after a huge snowfall, you might actually be stuck in your house). I spent a bunch of time finding a student do clear snow and he came once and then ghosted me. I could keep ranting, but the point is simple: the reality is people are hard to find, more expensive and less reliable than your post implies. There is a lot of overhead and the end result is that a bunch of work that should get done, simply does not get done. A $30,000 10 year mortgage at 6% is $11/day, $4000/year. Charging costs are negligible, like a couple of cents per day. My EV moves 2000kg 100km for $1.50, moving clothes and brushes around the house is nowhere near that. Any competitive company will also provide regular OTA updates that makes your robot more capable over time. The bar for these humanoids to succeed is very low.
- steveBK123 3y ago
  The bar for humanoids to succeed may seem low, but think about how we are like 10 years into "FSD next year for sure". In that case, the car already exists! All the computer needs to do is steer/brake an existing automative frame using vision & compute. A humanoid robot needs to essentially deliver the navigation ability that FSD has failed to do, as well as a new robotic humanoid frame. The frame hardware & nav software needs to navigate tighter spaces, with tighter precision (fractions of inches rather than feet) in closer contact with flesh&bloods easily damaged humans (within inches of us rather than multiple feet away on a sidewalk). Think about yard work. Even a half decent yard service has a half dozen bladed tools they wield around your yard. What is your risk appetite for a robot to wield those autonomously around children/pets/neighbors/wildlife/you. Most industrial robots disable themselves if humans are anywhere nearby and a lot of accidents happen when that system fails. It is going to take a lot of confidence to put robots into homes.

graypegg 3y ago

Efficiency wins out over sci fi coolness, every time. You’re totally right IMO. When it comes to most tasks, I normally care about the task being done, and done to some acceptable level of quality. Hiring someone gives me that for a fraction of the cost, so sorry robots, but it looks like humans are taking your yard work jobs.

turnsout 3y ago

Bipedal robots will be a common thing in industrial/commercial settings within the decade. There is just such a huge financial incentive to create bipedal robots to take over human tasks. $100k for a robot that can work in a warehouse and lasts 10 years working 24/7 is far less than what you’d have to pay two shifts of minimum wage workers.

steveBK123 3y ago
Again, my point I made in other parts of thread - B2B use cases, yes. B2C use cases, no. Factories have been designed since the days of Henry Ford's assembly line to treat humans like robots. We have increasingly automated/mechanized the assembly line, introducing robotics of various sorts. So sure, a limited-functionality bipedal robot that costs less than high cost union labor, doesn't go on strike, doesn't take smoke breaks, and doesn't need to eat/rest/sleep is attractive. But as a general purpose home assistant / personal housekeeper we are far far away, and especially for anything remotely affordable even for FAANG types.

martythemaniak 3y ago

I've been very squeezed for time the last couple of years and have tried to buy my way out of this situation, which is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on humanoid house robots. I hired landscapers one year for over $3K, they did well but they came once a month. It was way too expensive for what they did. I tried hiring a guy on an ad-hoc basis, he did a bunch of half-assed work for $30/hr, then disappeared leaving a bunch of garbage in my yard. Cleaners are available for an $25+/hr on freelance sites. I have someone coming in right now for $30/hr, and they're ok, but they only do 4-5hr chunks and so the house has to get noticeably dirty for them to be worth it. No one will come for 1hr/day and do laundry, they have transit overheard, scheduling, etc. Snow clearing is $300+ per season, but they don't show up for anything less than 3", which happens only ~5 times per season, and they'll only do it within 24hrs (ie, you're not going to get your snow cleared when you need it, because everyone needs their snow cleared after a huge snowfall, you might actually be stuck in your house). I spent a bunch of time finding a student do clear snow and he came once and then ghosted me. I could keep ranting, but the point is simple: the reality is people are hard to find, more expensive and less reliable than your post implies. There is a lot of overhead and the end result is that a bunch of work that should get done, simply does not get done. A $30,000 10 year mortgage at 6% is $11/day, $4000/year. Charging costs are negligible, like a couple of cents per day. My EV moves 2000kg 100km for $1.50, moving clothes and brushes around the house is nowhere near that. Any competitive company will also provide regular OTA updates that makes your robot more capable over time. The bar for these humanoids to succeed is very low.

steveBK123 3y ago
The bar for humanoids to succeed may seem low, but think about how we are like 10 years into "FSD next year for sure". In that case, the car already exists! All the computer needs to do is steer/brake an existing automative frame using vision & compute. A humanoid robot needs to essentially deliver the navigation ability that FSD has failed to do, as well as a new robotic humanoid frame. The frame hardware & nav software needs to navigate tighter spaces, with tighter precision (fractions of inches rather than feet) in closer contact with flesh&bloods easily damaged humans (within inches of us rather than multiple feet away on a sidewalk). Think about yard work. Even a half decent yard service has a half dozen bladed tools they wield around your yard. What is your risk appetite for a robot to wield those autonomously around children/pets/neighbors/wildlife/you. Most industrial robots disable themselves if humans are anywhere nearby and a lot of accidents happen when that system fails. It is going to take a lot of confidence to put robots into homes.