3 ms·

The unemployment rate is a bit of a red herring; it could almost be said to measure regulatory interference. Supply and demand are simple laws that tell us that

by roenxi 3y ago

The unemployment rate is a bit of a red herring; it could almost be said to measure regulatory interference. Supply and demand are simple laws that tell us that for practical purposes everyone will find a job - the only real question is at what wage and whether wages are high enough for people to get a job. We see from the participation rate [0] that wages are not high enough to get men into jobs (or they just don't have the skills to be able to work productively). Women aren't moving in to the labour market any more either which is interesting. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Labor_Force_Participation_Rate_by_gender.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Labor_Force_Participat...

firecall 3y ago
I believe it was another NPR podcast that pointed out that the Unemployment Rate is not designed to tell potential employees how easy it will be to get a job. But rather it’s designed to inform business about the state of the labour market. In recent decades of course it’s used as a political popularity tool.
loumf 3y ago
I would recommend looking at LFP restricted to 25-54 in addition to this. For example: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/wb/data/lfp/women-by-age https://www.dol.gov/agencies/wb/data/lfp/women-by-age This shows women participating at nearly the highest levels ever. Here is it overall (also very close to its historical max): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 This removes the effect of an aging population.
mindslight 3y ago
Not at all. Even without minimum wage or low income subsidies, there would be things like price stickiness. This widespread assertion that markets are somehow fully efficient is essentially a piece of misguided faith. If it were true, it's likely that P would be equivalent to NP and central planning would actually work.

by roenxi 3y ago

firecall 3y ago

I believe it was another NPR podcast that pointed out that the Unemployment Rate is not designed to tell potential employees how easy it will be to get a job. But rather it’s designed to inform business about the state of the labour market. In recent decades of course it’s used as a political popularity tool.

loumf 3y ago

I would recommend looking at LFP restricted to 25-54 in addition to this. For example: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/wb/data/lfp/women-by-age https://www.dol.gov/agencies/wb/data/lfp/women-by-age This shows women participating at nearly the highest levels ever. Here is it overall (also very close to its historical max): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 This removes the effect of an aging population.

mindslight 3y ago

Not at all. Even without minimum wage or low income subsidies, there would be things like price stickiness. This widespread assertion that markets are somehow fully efficient is essentially a piece of misguided faith. If it were true, it's likely that P would be equivalent to NP and central planning would actually work.