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This is also a trivially true statement and meaningless for real-world decision-making. In a large enough dataset and given enough time, a meteor will eventual
by avalys 3y ago
This is also a trivially true statement and meaningless for real-world decision-making.
In a large enough dataset and given enough time, a meteor will eventually hit a plane in-flight and destroy it. Should regulation require the airplanes carry anti-meteor armor?
Your qualitative judgement that these conditions described occur all the time actually suggests it's not a big deal, because the currently-flying Max 8 and Max 9 variants have the same issue, and none have experienced a structural failure.
The scenario here is that, if the pilots forget to turn off anti-ice, the nacelle will eventually overheat, weaken, and possibly fail. But clearly that is not guaranteed to happen, or happen immediately. What I'm saying is that actual decision-making here depends on what the statistics of this possible failure actually are, given that the pilots forget to turn off the anti-ice.
- pi-e-sigma 3y agoYour analogy doesn't make sense because there is no feasible way to protect a plane from a meteor hit (if it ever happens). So it's either take your chances or don't fly at all. The failure mode we are discussing absolutely can be prevented, it's just a matter of some extra cost.
- troupo 3y agoThere are degrees of possibilities nd confidence intervas and... You can start with statistics of icing/de-icing a plane vs. statistics of meteors hitting a plane.