https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Housing starts are still pretty high right now (relative to post 08), though

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Housing starts are still pretty high right now (relative to post 08), though they could definitely be much higher. Rates don't seem to be impacting builders all that much, rather they were just making outsized profits in the lower interest rate years. IIRC labor supply was a bigger issue for them. The issue is that if you have 100 people and 100 houses, the price of any house is just whatever the construction and land costs. If you have 101 people and 100 houses, suddenly not even the sky is the limit. It's not that the 100 houses suddenly became better, they just became an existential land grab resulting in astronomical prices dictated by the absolute maximum the median person can convince a bank to lend them. If getting the money becomes more difficult, the prices will follow.