Denominator changed - more people in the workforce through participation, immigration or not being dead. As for analyst expectation, they are often mathematica

Denominator changed - more people in the workforce through participation, immigration or not being dead. As for analyst expectation, they are often mathematically inconsistent - quarterly revenue estimates can mismatch the 1y number etc. The expectations are a simple average, and not necessarily everyone contributes to both estimates. Analyst A might stick in a +1 mil monthly number, Analyst B sticks in a -2% unemployment rate. (+ there are many analysts that like to stick in stupid numbers so they can claim to be a genius on cnbc if there is an outlier result)