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Is there a HN or Reddit group where economics, finance, etc are discussed in boring details? For example, I see a lot of growth in government jobs. Does anyon
by melling 3y ago
Is there a HN or Reddit group where economics, finance, etc are discussed in boring details?
For example, I see a lot of growth in government jobs. Does anyone analyze month over month growth by sector?
- ajross 3y ago> For example, I see a lot of growth in government jobs. Where do you see this? You'll forgive me, but statements like that have the smell of a conspiracy theory ("Biden is hiring people for fake jobs to goose the numbers", something like that). In fact this is measured and has been for a long time. Here's the FRED chart. Always go to FRED, always. Almost everything else has spin to it: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGOVT https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGOVT And it's basically on trend. There was a big downward crash in the pandemic, which has been corrected for a while. Certainly there's no data to suggest a "lot of growth in government jobs", they're growing just like the economy is.
- melling 3y agoFrom the article that we are all reading: “ The hiring boost came from a gain of 52,000 in government jobs and another 38,000 in health care-related fields such as ambulatory health-care services and hospitals. Leisure and hospitality contributed 40,000 to the total, while social assistance increased by 21,000 and construction added 17,000. Retail trade grew by 17,000 as the industry has been mostly flat since early 2022, the Labor Department said.”
- ajross 3y agoThey're just listing numbers from the report, though. It's boring "here's the breakdown" journalism. It's clearly not saying these are growing faster. Those are just the biggest categories. I repeat, if you want data, look at data. FRED is free and great.
- melling 3y agoSorry, I guess I need to understand the current size of each group too for relative growth. This goes with my desire to better understand the economic numbers, in general
- blitzar 3y agoAlso - lets not forget how the US actually functions - of the +52K in December ... local government (+37K) and state government (+8K)
- tmaly 3y agoI am not an economist, but reading between the lines, this does not seem like good growth.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoI find r/askeconomics to be a pretty good place for economic discussion since they only allow comments after the moderators who are economists review. Ask there. A lot of it is just the economists calling posters dumb basically but the good questions get interesting discussion.
- Peretus 3y agoI read WolfStreet.com daily. The author delves into these topics and provides plain-language analysis. If you're interested in economics and markets in the US, you'll likely enjoy his content.
- hammock 3y ago>I see a lot of growth in government jobs If you take away federal deficit spending, US GDP is negative for the last several quarters
- blitzar 3y agoIf you take away federal deficit spending, US GDP is negative for the last several decades.
- hammock 3y agoI don't believe that's true. Deficits relative to change in GDP were small from 2014-2018, and I believe if you do the math you'll find GDP ex deficit spending will still be positive for those years
- blitzar 3y ago2014-2018 GDP (growth rate) 2.29, 2.71, 1.67, 2.24, 2.95 Deficit (% of GDP) 2.75, 2.40, 3.10, 3.39, 3.77 1 out of 5 aint bad. The last time it was even close is Clinton.
- hammock 3y agoWhere are you getting those deficit figures from? Try this https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD#0 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD#0
- blitzar 3y agoFrom ... Federal Surplus or Deficit as Percent of Gross Domestic Product - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S
- hammock 3y agoI see you edited to add the labels. Anyway you can't do the math like that. It's (change in GDP in dollars) - (deficit)