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I bet when CGI was first introduced (~40 years ago), you'd have said the the same or even more hyped: "Dude, in two years, all movies would be made on a compute

by _xivi 3y ago

I bet when CGI was first introduced (~40 years ago), you'd have said the the same or even more hyped: "Dude, in two years, all movies would be made on a computer. All 3D and VFX, by a single guy in his basement. No production or filming. Everything would be done on your computer, you don't need a crew. All these actors are gonna be jobless. Cameras? They're obselete." Yeah, again, not how things works. Neither financially, nor the technology itself, nor the craft of film production. Not to be a party pooper, but the landscape will still look mostly the same in 5 years.

tetris11 3y ago
I agree to the extent that CGI took 40 years to fully mature to be accessible to the masses (read: see what Blender 4.0 can do on a kid's desktop[0]). AI is maturing fast. It's already on some people's smartphones. 0: https://wiki.blender.org/wiki/Reference/Release_Notes/4.0/ https://wiki.blender.org/wiki/Reference/Release_Notes/4.0/
- hnlmorg 3y ago
  But the stuff that works on people’s smartphones isn’t cinema quality. Which is precisely why it took decades for CGI to become accessible on our home PCs. Generative AI is already powerful enough to replace big studios for short skits on YouTube. But a full length cinema-quality movie is a totally different ball game. That all said, I definitely don’t think it will take 20 years to get there either. I do agree that the field is moving fast.
  - echelon 3y ago
    "I've seen things you people wouldn't believe" But seriously, the edge research is already ready to put an end to animation for good. Classic Disney animation -- that's 100% done as of right now. Today. It's about to be productized. It won't be long until we have photorealism too.
    - rogerclark 3y ago
      And then what? People sit around making animated videos, all of which are completely interchangeable because they're made at zero budget with the exact same technology? Great. Can't wait to ignore all of that stuff just like we ignore the existing low-quality garbage that's already out there.
      - echelon 3y ago
        Go back to being a kid and dreaming again. Your attitude shuts off immeasurable possibility space, closes the door to opportunity, and makes you sad, bitter, and old. Please don't be like this. You're more useful to the world if you forget everything you know and start dreaming again.
        a_dabbler 3y ago
        I think you're missing the point. You could flood the market with AI generated movies and art and music and books but a lot of it will be devoid of any real meaning. Also if u have unique generated content for each individual you lose shared culture that comes with normal entertainment - you can't talk to your friend/family/neighbour about AI show 7472648 as they will not have seen it. Looking at AI generated media is like replacing most meals with Soylent, sure you can probably manage to expend your time/fulfill energy needs but it's going to lack something
        hnlmorg 3y ago
        I don't think AI-generated, personalised, movies would displace the market either. At least not in the forceable future. However to play devils advocate, there is a precedence for personalised stories that are hugely popular: gaming. Maybe one day in the future, movies become a bit more like gaming. Kind of like "holo-novels" in Star Trek, where the story does adapt to suit the individual. This isn't going to happen in the next 10 years though. Even technology aside, the various Hollywood unions wouldn't allow it. If you look at the last big shift in the way society consumed content (from CDs to streaming) it took decades from the invention of Napster before anything like Spotify was successful. And that wasn't because the general public was slow to adopt. It was purely because distributors dragged their heals.
- gumballindie 3y ago
  If anything, ai is _manuring_ fast.

by _xivi 3y ago

tetris11 3y ago

I agree to the extent that CGI took 40 years to fully mature to be accessible to the masses (read: see what Blender 4.0 can do on a kid's desktop[0]). AI is maturing fast. It's already on some people's smartphones. 0: https://wiki.blender.org/wiki/Reference/Release_Notes/4.0/ https://wiki.blender.org/wiki/Reference/Release_Notes/4.0/

hnlmorg 3y ago
But the stuff that works on people’s smartphones isn’t cinema quality. Which is precisely why it took decades for CGI to become accessible on our home PCs. Generative AI is already powerful enough to replace big studios for short skits on YouTube. But a full length cinema-quality movie is a totally different ball game. That all said, I definitely don’t think it will take 20 years to get there either. I do agree that the field is moving fast.
- echelon 3y ago
  "I've seen things you people wouldn't believe" But seriously, the edge research is already ready to put an end to animation for good. Classic Disney animation -- that's 100% done as of right now. Today. It's about to be productized. It won't be long until we have photorealism too.
  - rogerclark 3y ago
    And then what? People sit around making animated videos, all of which are completely interchangeable because they're made at zero budget with the exact same technology? Great. Can't wait to ignore all of that stuff just like we ignore the existing low-quality garbage that's already out there.
    - echelon 3y ago
      Go back to being a kid and dreaming again. Your attitude shuts off immeasurable possibility space, closes the door to opportunity, and makes you sad, bitter, and old. Please don't be like this. You're more useful to the world if you forget everything you know and start dreaming again.
      - a_dabbler 3y ago
        I think you're missing the point. You could flood the market with AI generated movies and art and music and books but a lot of it will be devoid of any real meaning. Also if u have unique generated content for each individual you lose shared culture that comes with normal entertainment - you can't talk to your friend/family/neighbour about AI show 7472648 as they will not have seen it. Looking at AI generated media is like replacing most meals with Soylent, sure you can probably manage to expend your time/fulfill energy needs but it's going to lack something
        hnlmorg 3y ago
        I don't think AI-generated, personalised, movies would displace the market either. At least not in the forceable future. However to play devils advocate, there is a precedence for personalised stories that are hugely popular: gaming. Maybe one day in the future, movies become a bit more like gaming. Kind of like "holo-novels" in Star Trek, where the story does adapt to suit the individual. This isn't going to happen in the next 10 years though. Even technology aside, the various Hollywood unions wouldn't allow it. If you look at the last big shift in the way society consumed content (from CDs to streaming) it took decades from the invention of Napster before anything like Spotify was successful. And that wasn't because the general public was slow to adopt. It was purely because distributors dragged their heals.
gumballindie 3y ago
If anything, ai is _manuring_ fast.