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But then when scientist say "there is 99% chance that asteroid will hit", the other characters says "so there is some wiggle room, lets call it 60% and move on"
by FrustratedMonky 3y ago
But then when scientist say "there is 99% chance that asteroid will hit", the other characters says "so there is some wiggle room, lets call it 60% and move on".
Some people need to understand science is never exact. Like you are saying, they should understand it isn't exact.
Then others are like, since it isn't exact, then it isn't real.
I've heard arguments that since Climate Models have some range of error, then it isn't real, "see, there is some uncertainty". Climate change isn't real, because the models have some error. So for these people you need to be more forcefully confident in the predictions since they can't handle the nuance in discussing error ranges.
- kstrauser 3y agoAlright, I see what you’re saying there, and agree with the premise. I think the right way to fix it is to tell people what science means, rather than re-write all science publications.
- Podgajski 3y agoI would say we need to teach them about probability, statistics and risk assessment along with “science.” but I disagree, by changing the wording we are implicitly teaching them what science means.
- kstrauser 3y agoI think that's all under the science umbrella. Thing is, changing the wording makes it more tedious to consume for more knowledgeable readers. It's not like we can tweak a few phrases to make it universally better with no drawbacks.
- brlewis 3y agoWhat do you mean by more forcefully confident? Do you mean pretending there's no uncertainty? That will only work as long as every result matches its probable prediction. One can be forcefully confident while acknowledging uncertainty. https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/344623-i-know-what-you-re-thinking-did-he-fire-six-shots https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/344623-i-know-what-you-re-t...
- FrustratedMonky 3y agoIf something is 99.9% Certain, then act like it is Certain. Lot of pedantic STEM people will waffle and be like, "yeah, it isn't 100%, I can't commit", or "I'm not 100% confident". Then the non-STEM run with it and say it isn't going to happen. "Well, they didn't seem that concerned".