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> violent deaths on Earth have been massively trending downward for decades. Right after they spiked to an all time high during WW1/WW2/Stalin/Mao reign. I kn

> violent deaths on Earth have been massively trending downward for decades. Right after they spiked to an all time high during WW1/WW2/Stalin/Mao reign. I know what you mean and I don't want to dismiss it outright - a lot of the small conquests that dominated Europa for millennia have indeed vanished and the motivations for war in a knowledge economy are very different. But I think we've mostly switched lots of small wars between small countries for fewer big wars between bigger countries - with bigger intervals in between. The trending downwards for decades statement requires to take measurement only in very specific timeframes and regions. If we take the last 100 years as a whole, they certainly have not.

sneak 3y ago
The first and only use of nuclear weapons in war, ending the largest war in history, serves as a useful objective demarcation point. There is indeed much less war now than then. It seems that the doctrine of mutually assured destruction is working, for better or worse. Cold wars, proxy wars, limited in scope and scale wars - these are better than what came before.
prepend 3y ago
> Right after they spiked to an all time high during WW1/WW2/Stalin/Mao reign. But it wasn’t an all time high, if you look at proportions, as we should. Pinker has talked a lot about this, and going far back in history [0] has estimates that 15% of people died from violent deaths compared to 0.15% during the peak of ww2 Germany. [0] https://longnow.org/seminars/02012/oct/08/decline-violence/ https://longnow.org/seminars/02012/oct/08/decline-violence/
- antisthenes 3y ago
  > Pinker has talked a lot about this, and going far back in history [0] has estimates that 15% of people died from violent deaths compared to 0.15% during the peak of ww2 Germany. 7.5% of Germany's population died during WW2, that is just military deaths, excluding civilians dead from bombing raids by the Allies, hunger, disease, etc. The 0.15% number is absolute nonsense, and anyone who is seriously using it, knows nothing about history (which is just about right for a fraud like Pinker)

sneak 3y ago

The first and only use of nuclear weapons in war, ending the largest war in history, serves as a useful objective demarcation point. There is indeed much less war now than then. It seems that the doctrine of mutually assured destruction is working, for better or worse. Cold wars, proxy wars, limited in scope and scale wars - these are better than what came before.

prepend 3y ago

> Right after they spiked to an all time high during WW1/WW2/Stalin/Mao reign. But it wasn’t an all time high, if you look at proportions, as we should. Pinker has talked a lot about this, and going far back in history [0] has estimates that 15% of people died from violent deaths compared to 0.15% during the peak of ww2 Germany. [0] https://longnow.org/seminars/02012/oct/08/decline-violence/ https://longnow.org/seminars/02012/oct/08/decline-violence/

antisthenes 3y ago
> Pinker has talked a lot about this, and going far back in history [0] has estimates that 15% of people died from violent deaths compared to 0.15% during the peak of ww2 Germany. 7.5% of Germany's population died during WW2, that is just military deaths, excluding civilians dead from bombing raids by the Allies, hunger, disease, etc. The 0.15% number is absolute nonsense, and anyone who is seriously using it, knows nothing about history (which is just about right for a fraud like Pinker)