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Correct. Tesla just closed another record quarter. And BYD just surpassed them as the largest EV producer in the world. Both of those things are true because th
by jillesvangurp 3y ago
Correct. Tesla just closed another record quarter. And BYD just surpassed them as the largest EV producer in the world. Both of those things are true because the overall market keeps on growing very rapidly. Which means Tesla can break it's own records and yet not be the largest anymore because another company is growing even faster.
We're in a major economic down turn because of things like global pandemics and other macro economic events like the conflict in the Ukraine. Yet, this has barely impacted the growth of the EV market.
The article is rehashing the myth spread by traditional car manufacturers that the reason they are selling so few EVs is that nobody wants EVs. Which is patently false. More people bought EVs last year than any year before. Just not from them.
The actual reason they are producing so few EVs is that they are struggling to produce them cost effectively. There is no demand problem if they price them right. But if they do that, they actually loose money on the few EVs that they do produce. The reasons for all this are complicated and relate to their outdated manufacturing and supply lines that are optimized for their now obsolete ICE vehicles. They can build EVs but they just aren't very good at it yet. Too many parts. Too many suppliers. Too slow to assemble them. Lots of supply chain issues to source batteries, chips. Lots of issues with software. Etc. They are basically about 5-8 years behind technically.
Tesla, BYD, and others don't have these issues because they built their EV manufacturing from scratch and have been optimizing how that works for the last ten years. Tesla became profitable about six years ago (and ridiculously so). BYD has been growing in China and started expanding internationally only recently. Both are profitable and rapidly growing market share. And they are now able to produce vehicles much more cheaply and are waging a price war that pushes prices down for everyone else too.
And its about to get worse as they are getting ready to mass produce cheap (<~25K$) EVs by the millions. All the signs are that 1) this is actually happening in the next 2-3 years 2) there are exactly zero signs of demand challenges whatsoever for any of those vehicles 3) this will start decimating the market for traditional ICE vehicles and 4) This will continue relentlessly beyond 2026 until there's nothing left of that market; probably by the mid to late 2030s or so.
So, yes the article, and the site it's on are not great. To put it mildly.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- electrondood 3y agoFinally, some sense. Thanks for taking the time to summarize this. Fun side note... 90% of the DoorDash delivery drivers I see are driving a Prius, because the cost of ownership is lower. That $25k Tesla is going to eat Toyota's lunch and every one of these delivery drivers is going to be financing one.
- d3w4s9 3y agoThat's very anecdotal evidence you are using. In my area that number is nowhere near 90%, maybe not even 20%
- VBprogrammer 3y agoFood delivery drivers in our area are from what I've noticed mostly using scooters. Because in traffic they can get one where in half the time; not to mention costing less to own and operate then even a Prius. That said when my partner and I see a Prius it's synonymous with Uber i.e. that Uber just cut me up. I have noticed that the MG5 is making in roads though as the electric taxi of choice.
- JacobThreeThree 3y ago>Tesla, BYD, and others don't have these issues because they built their EV manufacturing from scratch and have been optimizing how that works for the last ten years. The fact that Tesla and BYD don't have large, entrenched, auto unions to deal with is the biggest factor in keeping costs low.
- callalex 3y agoWhere can I learn more about this?
- jillesvangurp 3y agoTry Google. Refer to quarterly reports by mentioned companies. There's also some fun comments from the likes of CEOs of VW and other companies commenting on the undisputed lead in manufacturing that Tesla has over them. VW actually used this as a reason to motivate some recent layoff rounds. There are lots of other reports.
- piva00 3y agoI Googled and didn't find any references making a correlation/causation between auto unions and Tesla/BYD. That's a poster's opinion, would love to see sources for basing that opinion.
- JacobThreeThree 3y agoIt's a fact that the large automaker unions like UAW are not present in Tesla operations. It's also a fact that BYD has no North American operations and obviously UAW doesn't operate in China. Do you think the presence of UAW makes a car manufacturer more or less cost efficient?
- afavour 3y agoYou’re describing correlation, not causation.
- freddie_mercury 3y agoWe're not in a major economic downturn.
- sevagh 3y agoIDK who's downvoting you. We've been in "Schrodinger's recession" for the last 3 years. Everybody has been accurately predicting the other shoe falling every single day while SPY is breaking records and the outlook on inflation looks like a successful soft landing.
- NooneAtAll3 3y agolose*