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The batteries have an 8 year warranty, by which point it will be cheaper to replace them. You probably won’t have to since NMC batteries will last 1,000 cycles

The batteries have an 8 year warranty, by which point it will be cheaper to replace them. You probably won’t have to since NMC batteries will last 1,000 cycles x 200 miles = 200,000 miles. LFP batteries will be 3x that. Edit: not sure why this is attracting downvotes Here is proof of the 8 year warranty: > 8 years or 100,000 miles ( Note: I chose to quote the lowest mileage to avoid controversy ) https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty Here is NMC vs LFP: > A key advantage of LFP is its longer life cycle, resulting in less degradation concerns. LFP packs are capable of more than 3000 full recharge cycle counts compared to NMC at around 1000 to 2000 cycles. https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-in-electric-cars https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i...

avgDev 3y ago
What makes you think it will be cheaper to replace them? Tesla recently increased prices on batteries.
- thebruce87m 3y ago
  > Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected > Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline). https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh...
  - weaksauce 3y ago
    just how cheap do you expect that to get to? right now a model s has a 90kwh battery... that's almost 9 grand to replace in 2025. there will be a floor to this and i don't think it's going to be that cheap. gm et. al. are looking into 200kwh batteries reasonably soon. that's almost 20 grand to replace or the cost of a small ICE car.
    - zamfi 3y ago
      The smart money expects a Moore’s Law kind of curve here for quite some time going forward, given the economies of scale and powerful incentives. There will be more variability than with Moore’s Law because the raw materials are more expensive, it’s not just about building a fab and then amortizing over billions of parts. Expect a rough annual decrease of 5-15% in $/kWh for some time. We continue to find new chemistries and electrod materials that bring prices down. Will there eventually be a floor? Yes, for sure. But we’re not there yet.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - phpisthebest 3y ago
        The problem here is the retail price on things does not really drop. using a Laptop as an example, prices of Laptops go UP every year, their price / performance ratio may improve... So in this example if your 300 Mile range battery costs $15,000 today you may be able to get a 600 mile range battery for $15,000 in the future but you will unlikely be able to buy a 300 mile range battery for $8,000
        zamfi 3y ago
        In inflation-adjusted terms the retail prices of things absolutely do drop. Sure, Tesla might choose to only sell a 600-mile range battery for $15k instead of the 300-mile range battery for $8k. But if there’s a market for a 300-mile vehicle that costs $7k less, and that vehicle can be profitably produced, then it will very likely exist.
  - uniclaude 3y ago
    An estimate from a bank isn’t proof that the retail prices will decrease. Savings aren’t always passed down to consumers.
  - avgDev 3y ago
    Again, this doesn't mean consumers will actually get cheaper batteries. Musk himself was promising $5k-$7k battery replacement, yet we saw a price increase. If we reached Musk's promised numbers then battery replacement would no longer be an issue for me, but when we are talking $15k-$20k then something like a model 3 is scrap for me at 100k+ miles.
    - thebruce87m 3y ago
      Again? Not sure what that means. As for 100k miles - there are cars over that now. Tesla aren’t the only game in town, and BYD is ready to eat their lunch. Competition will drive prices down.
  - phpisthebest 3y ago
    If i had a nickle for every time Goldman Sachs has been wrong I would never have to work again
FullyFunctional 3y ago
My 2014 Model S battery has lost less than 10% of the original range. Why would I replace the battery?
- thebruce87m 3y ago
  You wouldn’t, that’s not my argument. People talk about the cost of replacing the battery at today’s prices, but in reality you’d be paying the future price. Given the 8 year warranty, expected 200,000 - 600,000 mile* lifetime [0] and the rapid decline [1] of battery prices, most people would never need to replace the battery and if they did, it would be in a future where they are cheaper. [0] https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-in-electric-cars https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i... > A key advantage of LFP is its longer life cycle, resulting in less degradation concerns. LFP packs are capable of more than 3000 full recharge cycle counts compared to NMC at around 1000 to 2000 cycles. * Assume 200 miles of range on one charge at 1,000 cycles for NMC, intentionally lower to avoid controversy. [1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh... > Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030
  - FullyFunctional 3y ago
    Ah, sorry I misunderstood and I think we agree nearly completely. However, while I'm a fan of LFP, especially for UPSes, for cars it's a delicate balance of lower energy density vs longevity. What I can say is the the Li-Ion in my car have held up much better than expected, but I'm also babying them to the extreme, only rarely charge beyond 80% and rarely supercharging. At this point I fully expect to keep my car for 15+ years and never replace the battery.
    - thebruce87m 3y ago
      LFP batteries are definitely becoming more prevalent. The standard range Teslas in some regions come with them. As you said, NMC should limit the charging to 80% for daily use. Interestingly for LFP the recommended is 100% so that actually means that a standard range LFP Model Y can get more miles at 100% than the long range can at 80% for daily driving. There’s not much in it but it still feels weird!
toast0 3y ago
I'm willing to accept that motive batteries will be less expensive in general in the future because of market expansion etc. But does that really mean motive batteries for a specific vehicle will be less expensive? People in comments are always talking about replacing individual cells from packs, but I don't think that's actually a common service now, and labor and support considerations may not make it a real option either. (Battery wear seems to be a lot less than people expect as well, more data would be great, but I don't know if that's likely to appear.)

avgDev 3y ago

What makes you think it will be cheaper to replace them? Tesla recently increased prices on batteries.

thebruce87m 3y ago
> Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected > Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline). https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh...
- weaksauce 3y ago
  just how cheap do you expect that to get to? right now a model s has a 90kwh battery... that's almost 9 grand to replace in 2025. there will be a floor to this and i don't think it's going to be that cheap. gm et. al. are looking into 200kwh batteries reasonably soon. that's almost 20 grand to replace or the cost of a small ICE car.
  - zamfi 3y ago
    The smart money expects a Moore’s Law kind of curve here for quite some time going forward, given the economies of scale and powerful incentives. There will be more variability than with Moore’s Law because the raw materials are more expensive, it’s not just about building a fab and then amortizing over billions of parts. Expect a rough annual decrease of 5-15% in $/kWh for some time. We continue to find new chemistries and electrod materials that bring prices down. Will there eventually be a floor? Yes, for sure. But we’re not there yet.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - phpisthebest 3y ago
      The problem here is the retail price on things does not really drop. using a Laptop as an example, prices of Laptops go UP every year, their price / performance ratio may improve... So in this example if your 300 Mile range battery costs $15,000 today you may be able to get a 600 mile range battery for $15,000 in the future but you will unlikely be able to buy a 300 mile range battery for $8,000
      - zamfi 3y ago
        In inflation-adjusted terms the retail prices of things absolutely do drop. Sure, Tesla might choose to only sell a 600-mile range battery for $15k instead of the 300-mile range battery for $8k. But if there’s a market for a 300-mile vehicle that costs $7k less, and that vehicle can be profitably produced, then it will very likely exist.
- uniclaude 3y ago
  An estimate from a bank isn’t proof that the retail prices will decrease. Savings aren’t always passed down to consumers.
- avgDev 3y ago
  Again, this doesn't mean consumers will actually get cheaper batteries. Musk himself was promising $5k-$7k battery replacement, yet we saw a price increase. If we reached Musk's promised numbers then battery replacement would no longer be an issue for me, but when we are talking $15k-$20k then something like a model 3 is scrap for me at 100k+ miles.
  - thebruce87m 3y ago
    Again? Not sure what that means. As for 100k miles - there are cars over that now. Tesla aren’t the only game in town, and BYD is ready to eat their lunch. Competition will drive prices down.
- phpisthebest 3y ago
  If i had a nickle for every time Goldman Sachs has been wrong I would never have to work again

FullyFunctional 3y ago

My 2014 Model S battery has lost less than 10% of the original range. Why would I replace the battery?

thebruce87m 3y ago
You wouldn’t, that’s not my argument. People talk about the cost of replacing the battery at today’s prices, but in reality you’d be paying the future price. Given the 8 year warranty, expected 200,000 - 600,000 mile* lifetime [0] and the rapid decline [1] of battery prices, most people would never need to replace the battery and if they did, it would be in a future where they are cheaper. [0] https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-in-electric-cars https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i... > A key advantage of LFP is its longer life cycle, resulting in less degradation concerns. LFP packs are capable of more than 3000 full recharge cycle counts compared to NMC at around 1000 to 2000 cycles. * Assume 200 miles of range on one charge at 1,000 cycles for NMC, intentionally lower to avoid controversy. [1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh... > Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030
- FullyFunctional 3y ago
  Ah, sorry I misunderstood and I think we agree nearly completely. However, while I'm a fan of LFP, especially for UPSes, for cars it's a delicate balance of lower energy density vs longevity. What I can say is the the Li-Ion in my car have held up much better than expected, but I'm also babying them to the extreme, only rarely charge beyond 80% and rarely supercharging. At this point I fully expect to keep my car for 15+ years and never replace the battery.
  - thebruce87m 3y ago
    LFP batteries are definitely becoming more prevalent. The standard range Teslas in some regions come with them. As you said, NMC should limit the charging to 80% for daily use. Interestingly for LFP the recommended is 100% so that actually means that a standard range LFP Model Y can get more miles at 100% than the long range can at 80% for daily driving. There’s not much in it but it still feels weird!

toast0 3y ago

I'm willing to accept that motive batteries will be less expensive in general in the future because of market expansion etc. But does that really mean motive batteries for a specific vehicle will be less expensive? People in comments are always talking about replacing individual cells from packs, but I don't think that's actually a common service now, and labor and support considerations may not make it a real option either. (Battery wear seems to be a lot less than people expect as well, more data would be great, but I don't know if that's likely to appear.)