8 ms·

That is one of the issues for me. Plus, the only viable EV now for me is Tesla, but they keep making silly decisions and are just an odd automaker. By silly de

by avgDev 3y ago

That is one of the issues for me. Plus, the only viable EV now for me is Tesla, but they keep making silly decisions and are just an odd automaker. By silly decisions I mean things like removal of turn signal stalk, removal of parking sensors, lack of a gauge in field of view(y, 3), etc. I love ability to buy online. I hate the lack of an online parts catalog where I can purchase OEM parts. This is a big issue for me. I have enough experience to do anything on ICE car myself, engine rebuild included. The cost of a replacement battery is astronomical. I can replace an engine in an ICE vehicle for $2k. It also appears that Tesla is more expensive to insure.

thebruce87m 3y ago
The batteries have an 8 year warranty, by which point it will be cheaper to replace them. You probably won’t have to since NMC batteries will last 1,000 cycles x 200 miles = 200,000 miles. LFP batteries will be 3x that. Edit: not sure why this is attracting downvotes Here is proof of the 8 year warranty: > 8 years or 100,000 miles ( Note: I chose to quote the lowest mileage to avoid controversy ) https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty Here is NMC vs LFP: > A key advantage of LFP is its longer life cycle, resulting in less degradation concerns. LFP packs are capable of more than 3000 full recharge cycle counts compared to NMC at around 1000 to 2000 cycles. https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-in-electric-cars https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i...
- avgDev 3y ago
  What makes you think it will be cheaper to replace them? Tesla recently increased prices on batteries.
  - thebruce87m 3y ago
    > Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected > Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline). https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh...
    - weaksauce 3y ago
      just how cheap do you expect that to get to? right now a model s has a 90kwh battery... that's almost 9 grand to replace in 2025. there will be a floor to this and i don't think it's going to be that cheap. gm et. al. are looking into 200kwh batteries reasonably soon. that's almost 20 grand to replace or the cost of a small ICE car.
      - zamfi 3y ago
        The smart money expects a Moore’s Law kind of curve here for quite some time going forward, given the economies of scale and powerful incentives. There will be more variability than with Moore’s Law because the raw materials are more expensive, it’s not just about building a fab and then amortizing over billions of parts. Expect a rough annual decrease of 5-15% in $/kWh for some time. We continue to find new chemistries and electrod materials that bring prices down. Will there eventually be a floor? Yes, for sure. But we’re not there yet.
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        phpisthebest 3y ago
        The problem here is the retail price on things does not really drop. using a Laptop as an example, prices of Laptops go UP every year, their price / performance ratio may improve... So in this example if your 300 Mile range battery costs $15,000 today you may be able to get a 600 mile range battery for $15,000 in the future but you will unlikely be able to buy a 300 mile range battery for $8,000
        zamfi 3y ago
        In inflation-adjusted terms the retail prices of things absolutely do drop. Sure, Tesla might choose to only sell a 600-mile range battery for $15k instead of the 300-mile range battery for $8k. But if there’s a market for a 300-mile vehicle that costs $7k less, and that vehicle can be profitably produced, then it will very likely exist.
- FullyFunctional 3y ago
  My 2014 Model S battery has lost less than 10% of the original range. Why would I replace the battery?
  - thebruce87m 3y ago
    You wouldn’t, that’s not my argument. People talk about the cost of replacing the battery at today’s prices, but in reality you’d be paying the future price. Given the 8 year warranty, expected 200,000 - 600,000 mile* lifetime [0] and the rapid decline [1] of battery prices, most people would never need to replace the battery and if they did, it would be in a future where they are cheaper. [0] https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-in-electric-cars https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i... > A key advantage of LFP is its longer life cycle, resulting in less degradation concerns. LFP packs are capable of more than 3000 full recharge cycle counts compared to NMC at around 1000 to 2000 cycles. * Assume 200 miles of range on one charge at 1,000 cycles for NMC, intentionally lower to avoid controversy. [1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh... > Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030
    - FullyFunctional 3y ago
      Ah, sorry I misunderstood and I think we agree nearly completely. However, while I'm a fan of LFP, especially for UPSes, for cars it's a delicate balance of lower energy density vs longevity. What I can say is the the Li-Ion in my car have held up much better than expected, but I'm also babying them to the extreme, only rarely charge beyond 80% and rarely supercharging. At this point I fully expect to keep my car for 15+ years and never replace the battery.
      - thebruce87m 3y ago
        LFP batteries are definitely becoming more prevalent. The standard range Teslas in some regions come with them. As you said, NMC should limit the charging to 80% for daily use. Interestingly for LFP the recommended is 100% so that actually means that a standard range LFP Model Y can get more miles at 100% than the long range can at 80% for daily driving. There’s not much in it but it still feels weird!
- toast0 3y ago
  I'm willing to accept that motive batteries will be less expensive in general in the future because of market expansion etc. But does that really mean motive batteries for a specific vehicle will be less expensive? People in comments are always talking about replacing individual cells from packs, but I don't think that's actually a common service now, and labor and support considerations may not make it a real option either. (Battery wear seems to be a lot less than people expect as well, more data would be great, but I don't know if that's likely to appear.)
ohfoydoyd 3y ago
why is tesla the only viable option?
- brightball 3y ago
  I’ve test driven most of the competition. They are all much more expensive for a subpar product from what I’ve seen. IMO the plugin hyrbid market is a much more natural transition and some of those vehicles are becoming very good. The Chrysler Pacifica plug-in minivan is excellent for the price and the BMW X5 plugins are by far the best luxury plugin SUVs that I’ve seen. You can get good deals on used Pacifica plugins too. Typically in the $20k range. But we still need a good EV option that is close to $20k brand new.
  - ohfoydoyd 3y ago
    I'm not sure I agree with your first statement. At the low end I would take a Hyundai Ioniq any day over a model 3, and they're comparably priced. At the high end, I'll concede things are a bit more expensive, but I'll take the barely used Taycan Turbo I got for 70k any day over a new Model S.
    - brightball 3y ago
      I should have included the Ioniq in the list. It was right up there.
    - natch 3y ago
      No supercharger network. That made Ioniq dead in the water for us. Not to mention lack of good life changing features we rely on in our Teslas. If you only drive local, ever, then the Ioniq could work… but why would you get one? And now that the Model Y price has dropped so much, you should be comparing the features of the no-haggle straight priced Model Y to the features and charger network of the dealer-marked-up Ioniq, not comparing to the Model 3. Barely used Taycan… lol I wonder why they gave it up? Could it be the poor efficiency? Or that a Model S Plaid is quicker and costs less? Or again the charger network has a small existential issue.
stjohnswarts 3y ago
Tesla is the only one I'll buy until any car can use the tesla charger network, others simply aren't very well kept up.
- 2rsf 3y ago
  Many cars can use the Tesla network now, and you are probably biased to your geographical area. In Stockholm (Sweden) for example the Tesla chargers are located far away from the city center, while there are many third party chargers available anywhere.
  - _ea1k 3y ago
    In the US, this isn't the case yet. Other makes won't get access to all V3+ superchargers until later this year. Supposedly, Ford will get it next month.
- Account_Removed 3y ago
  If access to the supercharger network is the only factor for you, then it may be good choice. When quality or safety are also factors, then the choice is not obvious. How much will Tesla charge you for repairs over the lifetime of the vehicle. How bigger is the chance that you kill or injure your family due to quality issues. Please have a look at the Reuters Investigation below for context. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-musk-steering-suspension/ https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-mu...
moepstar 3y ago
> I hate the lack of an online parts catalog where I can purchase OEM parts. This is a big issue for me. I have enough experience to do anything on ICE car myself, engine rebuild included. It seems you're not aware that not only the parts catalog is available online for basically everyone [1] but also their repair guides / service manuals [2]? None cost anything to access, [2] is a free subscription and only costs something if you need their software ("Toolbox") which you can book for a certain time. [1] https://epc.tesla.com/ https://epc.tesla.com/ [2] https://service.tesla.com/service-manuals https://service.tesla.com/service-manuals
- avgDev 3y ago
  I am well aware of the parts catalog. I was specific about being able to see pricing. For me this smells like a dark pattern. Tesla gets you in the car at a reasonable price point but why can't they show part prices online? Or even better sell them online? They are a tech company. Right now, I can tell you the cost of a part for literally any main stream car with just a simple search. I can tell if the parts in stock or if they are out of stock how quickly I can expect to get them. Why can't tesla do this, if legacy automakers have been doing this for years?
agloe_dreams 3y ago
I don't actually mind the center screen on mine - it is actually fine and there is no 'wheel overlaps gauge cluster' issue. I also like the 'air directly hits my face though the wheel factor' That said, I'm weirder than most about airflow. The auto wipers suck, there is no dance around it. My issue is that the silly choices seem to be rapidly worsening. My 2018 model 3 has fantastic parking sensors. The new cars without them will conveniently tell you to stop when the wall is currently sitting on the hood of the car after you hit it. It is a dumb choice that doesn't work. No turn stalk is just why most drivers don't use signals anymore...which sucks. No drive stalk means confusion about drive direction and if the throttle is armed. I ALREADY have this issue in my model 3, it is incredibly easy to end up going the wrong directly rapidly. The lack of creep means that a model 3 in autohold is easy to confuse for a car in park. They really need to make the P icon bigger. No online catalog sucks, though I think with volume, that will happen via a third party. A big issue is the fact they they did agile changes to cars in a single model year so it is hard to know which part you need in some cases. Battery - eh. For a comparable ICE vehicle - my old Volvo XC40 - A motor replacement is not massively far off from a battery, easily close to $10K. I hope that solid state batteries make huge jumps. My tesla was $30/mo more to insure than the XC40 - that is material. I do save more than $30/mo on gas though, but the Xc40 was a 25mpg premium gas car so that is exceptional.

by avgDev 3y ago

thebruce87m 3y ago

The batteries have an 8 year warranty, by which point it will be cheaper to replace them. You probably won’t have to since NMC batteries will last 1,000 cycles x 200 miles = 200,000 miles. LFP batteries will be 3x that. Edit: not sure why this is attracting downvotes Here is proof of the 8 year warranty: > 8 years or 100,000 miles ( Note: I chose to quote the lowest mileage to avoid controversy ) https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty Here is NMC vs LFP: > A key advantage of LFP is its longer life cycle, resulting in less degradation concerns. LFP packs are capable of more than 3000 full recharge cycle counts compared to NMC at around 1000 to 2000 cycles. https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-in-electric-cars https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i...

avgDev 3y ago
What makes you think it will be cheaper to replace them? Tesla recently increased prices on batteries.
- thebruce87m 3y ago
  > Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected > Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline). https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh...
  - weaksauce 3y ago
    just how cheap do you expect that to get to? right now a model s has a 90kwh battery... that's almost 9 grand to replace in 2025. there will be a floor to this and i don't think it's going to be that cheap. gm et. al. are looking into 200kwh batteries reasonably soon. that's almost 20 grand to replace or the cost of a small ICE car.
    - zamfi 3y ago
      The smart money expects a Moore’s Law kind of curve here for quite some time going forward, given the economies of scale and powerful incentives. There will be more variability than with Moore’s Law because the raw materials are more expensive, it’s not just about building a fab and then amortizing over billions of parts. Expect a rough annual decrease of 5-15% in $/kWh for some time. We continue to find new chemistries and electrod materials that bring prices down. Will there eventually be a floor? Yes, for sure. But we’re not there yet.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - phpisthebest 3y ago
        The problem here is the retail price on things does not really drop. using a Laptop as an example, prices of Laptops go UP every year, their price / performance ratio may improve... So in this example if your 300 Mile range battery costs $15,000 today you may be able to get a 600 mile range battery for $15,000 in the future but you will unlikely be able to buy a 300 mile range battery for $8,000
        zamfi 3y ago
        In inflation-adjusted terms the retail prices of things absolutely do drop. Sure, Tesla might choose to only sell a 600-mile range battery for $15k instead of the 300-mile range battery for $8k. But if there’s a market for a 300-mile vehicle that costs $7k less, and that vehicle can be profitably produced, then it will very likely exist.
FullyFunctional 3y ago
My 2014 Model S battery has lost less than 10% of the original range. Why would I replace the battery?
- thebruce87m 3y ago
  You wouldn’t, that’s not my argument. People talk about the cost of replacing the battery at today’s prices, but in reality you’d be paying the future price. Given the 8 year warranty, expected 200,000 - 600,000 mile* lifetime [0] and the rapid decline [1] of battery prices, most people would never need to replace the battery and if they did, it would be in a future where they are cheaper. [0] https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-in-electric-cars https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i... > A key advantage of LFP is its longer life cycle, resulting in less degradation concerns. LFP packs are capable of more than 3000 full recharge cycle counts compared to NMC at around 1000 to 2000 cycles. * Assume 200 miles of range on one charge at 1,000 cycles for NMC, intentionally lower to avoid controversy. [1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh... > Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030
  - FullyFunctional 3y ago
    Ah, sorry I misunderstood and I think we agree nearly completely. However, while I'm a fan of LFP, especially for UPSes, for cars it's a delicate balance of lower energy density vs longevity. What I can say is the the Li-Ion in my car have held up much better than expected, but I'm also babying them to the extreme, only rarely charge beyond 80% and rarely supercharging. At this point I fully expect to keep my car for 15+ years and never replace the battery.
    - thebruce87m 3y ago
      LFP batteries are definitely becoming more prevalent. The standard range Teslas in some regions come with them. As you said, NMC should limit the charging to 80% for daily use. Interestingly for LFP the recommended is 100% so that actually means that a standard range LFP Model Y can get more miles at 100% than the long range can at 80% for daily driving. There’s not much in it but it still feels weird!
toast0 3y ago
I'm willing to accept that motive batteries will be less expensive in general in the future because of market expansion etc. But does that really mean motive batteries for a specific vehicle will be less expensive? People in comments are always talking about replacing individual cells from packs, but I don't think that's actually a common service now, and labor and support considerations may not make it a real option either. (Battery wear seems to be a lot less than people expect as well, more data would be great, but I don't know if that's likely to appear.)

ohfoydoyd 3y ago

why is tesla the only viable option?

brightball 3y ago
I’ve test driven most of the competition. They are all much more expensive for a subpar product from what I’ve seen. IMO the plugin hyrbid market is a much more natural transition and some of those vehicles are becoming very good. The Chrysler Pacifica plug-in minivan is excellent for the price and the BMW X5 plugins are by far the best luxury plugin SUVs that I’ve seen. You can get good deals on used Pacifica plugins too. Typically in the $20k range. But we still need a good EV option that is close to $20k brand new.
- ohfoydoyd 3y ago
  I'm not sure I agree with your first statement. At the low end I would take a Hyundai Ioniq any day over a model 3, and they're comparably priced. At the high end, I'll concede things are a bit more expensive, but I'll take the barely used Taycan Turbo I got for 70k any day over a new Model S.
  - brightball 3y ago
    I should have included the Ioniq in the list. It was right up there.
  - natch 3y ago
    No supercharger network. That made Ioniq dead in the water for us. Not to mention lack of good life changing features we rely on in our Teslas. If you only drive local, ever, then the Ioniq could work… but why would you get one? And now that the Model Y price has dropped so much, you should be comparing the features of the no-haggle straight priced Model Y to the features and charger network of the dealer-marked-up Ioniq, not comparing to the Model 3. Barely used Taycan… lol I wonder why they gave it up? Could it be the poor efficiency? Or that a Model S Plaid is quicker and costs less? Or again the charger network has a small existential issue.

stjohnswarts 3y ago

Tesla is the only one I'll buy until any car can use the tesla charger network, others simply aren't very well kept up.

2rsf 3y ago
Many cars can use the Tesla network now, and you are probably biased to your geographical area. In Stockholm (Sweden) for example the Tesla chargers are located far away from the city center, while there are many third party chargers available anywhere.
- _ea1k 3y ago
  In the US, this isn't the case yet. Other makes won't get access to all V3+ superchargers until later this year. Supposedly, Ford will get it next month.
Account_Removed 3y ago
If access to the supercharger network is the only factor for you, then it may be good choice. When quality or safety are also factors, then the choice is not obvious. How much will Tesla charge you for repairs over the lifetime of the vehicle. How bigger is the chance that you kill or injure your family due to quality issues. Please have a look at the Reuters Investigation below for context. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-musk-steering-suspension/ https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-mu...

moepstar 3y ago

> I hate the lack of an online parts catalog where I can purchase OEM parts. This is a big issue for me. I have enough experience to do anything on ICE car myself, engine rebuild included. It seems you're not aware that not only the parts catalog is available online for basically everyone [1] but also their repair guides / service manuals [2]? None cost anything to access, [2] is a free subscription and only costs something if you need their software ("Toolbox") which you can book for a certain time. [1] https://epc.tesla.com/ https://epc.tesla.com/ [2] https://service.tesla.com/service-manuals https://service.tesla.com/service-manuals

avgDev 3y ago
I am well aware of the parts catalog. I was specific about being able to see pricing. For me this smells like a dark pattern. Tesla gets you in the car at a reasonable price point but why can't they show part prices online? Or even better sell them online? They are a tech company. Right now, I can tell you the cost of a part for literally any main stream car with just a simple search. I can tell if the parts in stock or if they are out of stock how quickly I can expect to get them. Why can't tesla do this, if legacy automakers have been doing this for years?

agloe_dreams 3y ago

I don't actually mind the center screen on mine - it is actually fine and there is no 'wheel overlaps gauge cluster' issue. I also like the 'air directly hits my face though the wheel factor' That said, I'm weirder than most about airflow. The auto wipers suck, there is no dance around it. My issue is that the silly choices seem to be rapidly worsening. My 2018 model 3 has fantastic parking sensors. The new cars without them will conveniently tell you to stop when the wall is currently sitting on the hood of the car after you hit it. It is a dumb choice that doesn't work. No turn stalk is just why most drivers don't use signals anymore...which sucks. No drive stalk means confusion about drive direction and if the throttle is armed. I ALREADY have this issue in my model 3, it is incredibly easy to end up going the wrong directly rapidly. The lack of creep means that a model 3 in autohold is easy to confuse for a car in park. They really need to make the P icon bigger. No online catalog sucks, though I think with volume, that will happen via a third party. A big issue is the fact they they did agile changes to cars in a single model year so it is hard to know which part you need in some cases. Battery - eh. For a comparable ICE vehicle - my old Volvo XC40 - A motor replacement is not massively far off from a battery, easily close to $10K. I hope that solid state batteries make huge jumps. My tesla was $30/mo more to insure than the XC40 - that is material. I do save more than $30/mo on gas though, but the Xc40 was a 25mpg premium gas car so that is exceptional.