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Incoming monopoly. Already exists but it's now just gonna get worse. All your comms belong to starlink. On one side yay Telstra and Optus can go jump as they f

Incoming monopoly. Already exists but it's now just gonna get worse. All your comms belong to starlink. On one side yay Telstra and Optus can go jump as they finally have some competition. On the other hand their competition outperforms them so heavily we are gonna end up under a monopoly exporting fat gdp out of the nation via starlink. We're probably worse off in the long run with the monopoly. I wonder if any one has contemplated how easy it would be to knock out a run of starlink sats and toss a region into comms blackout in future years as reliance grows? Probably could be don't with a semi trailer truckload of balloon drones.

darepublic 3y ago
Earth atmosphere terrorism right. Just create a bunch of whizzing space junk to take out all sats.
callalex 3y ago
Iridium, Globalstar, and Inmarsat aren’t falling out of the sky because of this, and they don’t even fight over the same spectrum. Not to mention terrestrial cellular deployments still continue to get cheaper, now including self contained remote units with solar+battery becoming reasonably priced. As to the blowing up LEO stuff yea, at the minimum NATO and China have that capability. China caught a bunch of ire a few years back for demonstrating their capabilities.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- bob1029 3y ago
  If you look at it from an investor perspective, would you be willing to hold IRDM stock into 2025?
Nextgrid 3y ago
It would be much easier to take out the current mobile carriers than a Starlink sat. The code that runs it is of terrible quality, maintained by incompetent companies with no incentive to deliver a quality service due to their oligopoly and the regulator being asleep at the wheel. The reason nobody is doing it now is because it's a one-shot weapon. You fire it once and your target will wake up and actually do better (rather, the government will force them to on national security grounds). However, non-disruptive attacks on mobile carriers are common. I'd wager any competent intelligence agency has a full view of worldwide SMS comms for example. Similarly, non-government bad actors also have insider access via malware or bribery.
- jltsiren 3y ago
  There is a convenient sanity check these days: just look what is happening in Ukraine. One of the major lessons of the war has been that modern infrastructure is resilient.
  - hedora 3y ago
    Another major lesson is that the ultra-wealthy can aid the enemy during US-funded military operations with no apparent consequences.
    - inemesitaffia 3y ago
      Tell the Feds to pay their bills
eagerpace 3y ago
Is this how we respond to innovation now? They're the first to do something incredible. Regulation and competition will catch up but the achievement should e embraced with optimism and an open mind for all the incredible positive use cases that can be realized.
- Turing_Machine 3y ago
  > Is this how we respond to innovation now? Nah, it's just that Musk is the Emmanuel Goldstein du jour, and a Two Minutes Hate is mandatory any time he or one of his companies get mentioned.
pjscott 3y ago
Not an incoming monopoly, except maybe in a temporary sense for some remote areas. Ground-based internet continues to exist, and is getting better. OneWeb has over 600 satellites in orbit right now, with paying customers. Amazon's Kuiper constellation is planned to have over 3000 satellites; they've got regulatory approval and launch contracts signed, and their pockets are deep. Once those come online properly, it'll be hard for Starlink to charge anything like proper monopoly rents.
- nordsieck 3y ago
  > OneWeb has over 600 satellites in orbit right now, with paying customers. OneWeb is B2B only. I assume, but don't know that it's because they can't get the cost of their user terminals low enough. > Amazon's Kuiper constellation is planned to have over 3000 satellites; they've got regulatory approval and launch contracts signed, and their pockets are deep. Once those come online properly, it'll be hard for Starlink to charge anything like proper monopoly rents. It'll certainly be interesting to see how that goes. They went with the "hire everyone but SpaceX" launch strategy, which means that none of the rockets they've signed with are operational yet. And they have a looming FCC/ITU deadline. There's widespread belief that if they make a good effort, they can get a variance, but it's certainly not guaranteed. In general, I agree with you, though. There's not much evidence that SpaceX is trying to squeeze customers. In part because there are often plenty of competing options, and in part because Elons companies tend to keep prices low even when they do have a defacto monopoly (like right now with space launch).
  - dotnet00 3y ago
    I think recently they've started talks with SpaceX to launch with them too, buying 3 launches from them for now, since they got sued by an investor for choosing the more expensive launch options.
sheb 3y ago
Check out AST Space Mobile. They are actually ahead of Starlink at this point.
mrshadowgoose 3y ago
In extremely rural environments? Possibly. Globally, as an alternative to traditional cellular service? Literally impossible as long as cost is the forcing factor. I'd recommend reading up on RF information theory and then thinking about the cost/bandwidth implications. Satellite-based cellular is never ever ever going to be competitive with locally deployed terrestrial infrastructure in urban environments.

darepublic 3y ago

Earth atmosphere terrorism right. Just create a bunch of whizzing space junk to take out all sats.

callalex 3y ago

Iridium, Globalstar, and Inmarsat aren’t falling out of the sky because of this, and they don’t even fight over the same spectrum. Not to mention terrestrial cellular deployments still continue to get cheaper, now including self contained remote units with solar+battery becoming reasonably priced. As to the blowing up LEO stuff yea, at the minimum NATO and China have that capability. China caught a bunch of ire a few years back for demonstrating their capabilities.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
bob1029 3y ago
If you look at it from an investor perspective, would you be willing to hold IRDM stock into 2025?

Nextgrid 3y ago

It would be much easier to take out the current mobile carriers than a Starlink sat. The code that runs it is of terrible quality, maintained by incompetent companies with no incentive to deliver a quality service due to their oligopoly and the regulator being asleep at the wheel. The reason nobody is doing it now is because it's a one-shot weapon. You fire it once and your target will wake up and actually do better (rather, the government will force them to on national security grounds). However, non-disruptive attacks on mobile carriers are common. I'd wager any competent intelligence agency has a full view of worldwide SMS comms for example. Similarly, non-government bad actors also have insider access via malware or bribery.

jltsiren 3y ago
There is a convenient sanity check these days: just look what is happening in Ukraine. One of the major lessons of the war has been that modern infrastructure is resilient.
- hedora 3y ago
  Another major lesson is that the ultra-wealthy can aid the enemy during US-funded military operations with no apparent consequences.
  - inemesitaffia 3y ago
    Tell the Feds to pay their bills

eagerpace 3y ago

Is this how we respond to innovation now? They're the first to do something incredible. Regulation and competition will catch up but the achievement should e embraced with optimism and an open mind for all the incredible positive use cases that can be realized.

Turing_Machine 3y ago
> Is this how we respond to innovation now? Nah, it's just that Musk is the Emmanuel Goldstein du jour, and a Two Minutes Hate is mandatory any time he or one of his companies get mentioned.

pjscott 3y ago

Not an incoming monopoly, except maybe in a temporary sense for some remote areas. Ground-based internet continues to exist, and is getting better. OneWeb has over 600 satellites in orbit right now, with paying customers. Amazon's Kuiper constellation is planned to have over 3000 satellites; they've got regulatory approval and launch contracts signed, and their pockets are deep. Once those come online properly, it'll be hard for Starlink to charge anything like proper monopoly rents.

nordsieck 3y ago
> OneWeb has over 600 satellites in orbit right now, with paying customers. OneWeb is B2B only. I assume, but don't know that it's because they can't get the cost of their user terminals low enough. > Amazon's Kuiper constellation is planned to have over 3000 satellites; they've got regulatory approval and launch contracts signed, and their pockets are deep. Once those come online properly, it'll be hard for Starlink to charge anything like proper monopoly rents. It'll certainly be interesting to see how that goes. They went with the "hire everyone but SpaceX" launch strategy, which means that none of the rockets they've signed with are operational yet. And they have a looming FCC/ITU deadline. There's widespread belief that if they make a good effort, they can get a variance, but it's certainly not guaranteed. In general, I agree with you, though. There's not much evidence that SpaceX is trying to squeeze customers. In part because there are often plenty of competing options, and in part because Elons companies tend to keep prices low even when they do have a defacto monopoly (like right now with space launch).
- dotnet00 3y ago
  I think recently they've started talks with SpaceX to launch with them too, buying 3 launches from them for now, since they got sued by an investor for choosing the more expensive launch options.

sheb 3y ago

Check out AST Space Mobile. They are actually ahead of Starlink at this point.

mrshadowgoose 3y ago

In extremely rural environments? Possibly. Globally, as an alternative to traditional cellular service? Literally impossible as long as cost is the forcing factor. I'd recommend reading up on RF information theory and then thinking about the cost/bandwidth implications. Satellite-based cellular is never ever ever going to be competitive with locally deployed terrestrial infrastructure in urban environments.