This seems like something where the outcome of the simulation is dramatically influenced by the starting assumptions to the degree that the results are useless.

This seems like something where the outcome of the simulation is dramatically influenced by the starting assumptions to the degree that the results are useless. It allows plots of land to be smaller, but is the extra space taken up by housing or businesses? Is the housing single family or high density? How do wider economic trends interact with developers' interest in building/not building? I would think interest rates interact with developers' willingness to build and what they want to build. Those factors feel very subjective to me. Not to mention that if a model existed that could accurately predict this, I would eat my hat if the model wasn't immediately bought out by a fintech firm for some absurdly large sum. Being able to accurately predict the housing market is a blank check for printing money.