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Any technology will have a very long way from the initial discovery to widespread application. A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaprojec

Any technology will have a very long way from the initial discovery to widespread application. A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaproject. You propose that it is developed covertly to such an extend that it becomes a game changer that disrupts the current power balance before the US realises. I strongly disbelieve that such things can happen outside of fiction. For example, Manhattan project was known to the Soviets very early.

hobs 3y ago
Startups dont do massive infrastructure investment. The Manhattan project was not a startup, but one of the most expensive things the US government ever did.
h0l0cube 3y ago
You could be right, but it's hard to know how history would play out if a 'new cold war' with China started today, and with such a unique technological asymmetry (as room temperature superconductivity), and with a country that has a great deal more technical capability, self-sufficiency, and scruples than the former USSR.
- ethbr1 3y ago
  The thing that brings China all those boons is that they make and sell things to the rest of the world. Absent free trade, their advantages dwindle. So the current "just shy of declared adversarial relationships" is optimum for them. Pushed further, say by retaining exclusive access to a game changing technology, and they start losing trade relationships (arguably, already have as manufacturing reallocated to SE Asia).
  - h0l0cube 3y ago
    The trade war between the US and China (and the precipitating outcones) were instigated by the US. The withholding of ASML lithography equipment is a case in point. That said, in spite of tarrifs from the west, China still has plenty of skin in the game, and the hypothetical suggests that trade would still be open enough for China to profit
    - SkyMarshal 3y ago
      >The trade war between the US and China (and the precipitating outcones) were instigated by the US. That's very arguable when it was the US who led the world in opening up to China in the 90s/early 2000s, opening its markets to China, bringing China into the WTO, etc. (all at great cost to middle class Americans). China was an economic basket case and incapable of developing on its own. No country in history has been more generous to another. And what did the US get in return? Currency manipulation, large scale economic espionage and mercantilist behavior, protectionism of Chinese markets and industries, fentanyl, militarization of South China Sea and bullying the countries there, largest and fastest military buildup since 1930s Germany, supporting Russia vs Ukraine, threatening war over Taiwan, etc. "Unrestricted warfare". The US didn't cause China to do any of that, that was all the CCP's decision. Responses like economic derisking/decoupling (aka trade war) are completely legitimate and unsurprising.
      - p_j_w 3y ago
        >it was the US who led the world in opening up to China in the 90s/early 2000s, opening its markets to China, bringing China into the WTO, etc. (all at great cost to middle class Americans). China was an economic basket case and incapable of developing on its own. No country in history has been more generous to another. This is hilarious revisionism. We didn't do any of that out of generosity, we did it for profit. We saw a huge pool of cheap labor and decided we wanted to let our companies exploit that. We rubbed our hands together and grinned while selling them the proverbial rope.
        ethbr1 3y ago
        Lifting half a billion+ people out of poverty and enabling a country to modernize seems like a decent outcome. Regardless of the motivations and machinations on either government's part.
        SkyMarshal 3y ago
        If by "we" you mean the 1% of bankers and corporate executives who are the primary beneficiaries of drastically increased profit margins from outsourcing production to countries with no labor or environmental protections, then yes "we" did it for profit. But if by "we" you mean the large portion of the US middle class whose financial security and upward mobility was obliterated, then no "we" did not do it for profit and were extremely generous, sacrificial even, in lifting hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty when the CCP was unable to do that on their own. It's not like this is any surprise, Ross Perot was even explicitly warning about it back in 1992: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3LvZAZ-HV4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3LvZAZ-HV4
  - lupusreal 3y ago
    Absent free trade, China still has all the experience and expertise they have acquired up until now.
    - ethbr1 3y ago
      To sell to whom? Afaik, their domestic middle class market isn't nearby big enough to singlehandedly fuel their economy. And they'll economically-politically run up against the "middle class wants things like political power and freedom" if they try to balloon that class too quickly.
      - lupusreal 3y ago
        Sell? In the event that China is cut off from global trade, we're most likely talking about the lead up to a major war.
        ethbr1 3y ago
        If we're talking about total war, those are uncharted waters. Losing Taiwanese, Korean, Australian, and EU specialty and raw material imports would hurt. A lot. Goodbye substantial amounts of integrated circuits, oil, and iron and copper ore. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_... https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Year/LTST/Summarytext https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Yea...
robocat 3y ago
> A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaproject. I like your fervent almost religious belief in the US. Is it reality? What boundaries: software, environmental. Shenzhen felt like the most capitalist place I have ever been. It didn't seem to have big boy VC capital. However every single person seemed to be running a small capitalist business. Want to see a swarm of businesses? Let one small business in Shenzhen be seen to make a profit, and watch how many competitors and supply chain businesses pop up and how quickly. I don't know if it is a no/low beaurocracy zone but I am guessing they don't have to worry too much about IP roadblocks. I imagine the biggest problem is too much competition? I suspect young adults grok capitalism better there because as children they were embedded in the culture of endeavour, unlike westernized countries. I wasn't there for long enough, but would love to hear what others think of business startup in Shenzhen.

hobs 3y ago

Startups dont do massive infrastructure investment. The Manhattan project was not a startup, but one of the most expensive things the US government ever did.

h0l0cube 3y ago

You could be right, but it's hard to know how history would play out if a 'new cold war' with China started today, and with such a unique technological asymmetry (as room temperature superconductivity), and with a country that has a great deal more technical capability, self-sufficiency, and scruples than the former USSR.

ethbr1 3y ago
The thing that brings China all those boons is that they make and sell things to the rest of the world. Absent free trade, their advantages dwindle. So the current "just shy of declared adversarial relationships" is optimum for them. Pushed further, say by retaining exclusive access to a game changing technology, and they start losing trade relationships (arguably, already have as manufacturing reallocated to SE Asia).
- h0l0cube 3y ago
  The trade war between the US and China (and the precipitating outcones) were instigated by the US. The withholding of ASML lithography equipment is a case in point. That said, in spite of tarrifs from the west, China still has plenty of skin in the game, and the hypothetical suggests that trade would still be open enough for China to profit
  - SkyMarshal 3y ago
    >The trade war between the US and China (and the precipitating outcones) were instigated by the US. That's very arguable when it was the US who led the world in opening up to China in the 90s/early 2000s, opening its markets to China, bringing China into the WTO, etc. (all at great cost to middle class Americans). China was an economic basket case and incapable of developing on its own. No country in history has been more generous to another. And what did the US get in return? Currency manipulation, large scale economic espionage and mercantilist behavior, protectionism of Chinese markets and industries, fentanyl, militarization of South China Sea and bullying the countries there, largest and fastest military buildup since 1930s Germany, supporting Russia vs Ukraine, threatening war over Taiwan, etc. "Unrestricted warfare". The US didn't cause China to do any of that, that was all the CCP's decision. Responses like economic derisking/decoupling (aka trade war) are completely legitimate and unsurprising.
    - p_j_w 3y ago
      >it was the US who led the world in opening up to China in the 90s/early 2000s, opening its markets to China, bringing China into the WTO, etc. (all at great cost to middle class Americans). China was an economic basket case and incapable of developing on its own. No country in history has been more generous to another. This is hilarious revisionism. We didn't do any of that out of generosity, we did it for profit. We saw a huge pool of cheap labor and decided we wanted to let our companies exploit that. We rubbed our hands together and grinned while selling them the proverbial rope.
      - ethbr1 3y ago
        Lifting half a billion+ people out of poverty and enabling a country to modernize seems like a decent outcome. Regardless of the motivations and machinations on either government's part.
      - SkyMarshal 3y ago
        If by "we" you mean the 1% of bankers and corporate executives who are the primary beneficiaries of drastically increased profit margins from outsourcing production to countries with no labor or environmental protections, then yes "we" did it for profit. But if by "we" you mean the large portion of the US middle class whose financial security and upward mobility was obliterated, then no "we" did not do it for profit and were extremely generous, sacrificial even, in lifting hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty when the CCP was unable to do that on their own. It's not like this is any surprise, Ross Perot was even explicitly warning about it back in 1992: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3LvZAZ-HV4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3LvZAZ-HV4
- lupusreal 3y ago
  Absent free trade, China still has all the experience and expertise they have acquired up until now.
  - ethbr1 3y ago
    To sell to whom? Afaik, their domestic middle class market isn't nearby big enough to singlehandedly fuel their economy. And they'll economically-politically run up against the "middle class wants things like political power and freedom" if they try to balloon that class too quickly.
    - lupusreal 3y ago
      Sell? In the event that China is cut off from global trade, we're most likely talking about the lead up to a major war.
      - ethbr1 3y ago
        If we're talking about total war, those are uncharted waters. Losing Taiwanese, Korean, Australian, and EU specialty and raw material imports would hurt. A lot. Goodbye substantial amounts of integrated circuits, oil, and iron and copper ore. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_... https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Year/LTST/Summarytext https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Yea...

robocat 3y ago

> A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaproject. I like your fervent almost religious belief in the US. Is it reality? What boundaries: software, environmental. Shenzhen felt like the most capitalist place I have ever been. It didn't seem to have big boy VC capital. However every single person seemed to be running a small capitalist business. Want to see a swarm of businesses? Let one small business in Shenzhen be seen to make a profit, and watch how many competitors and supply chain businesses pop up and how quickly. I don't know if it is a no/low beaurocracy zone but I am guessing they don't have to worry too much about IP roadblocks. I imagine the biggest problem is too much competition? I suspect young adults grok capitalism better there because as children they were embedded in the culture of endeavour, unlike westernized countries. I wasn't there for long enough, but would love to hear what others think of business startup in Shenzhen.