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I wasn't talking specifically about this paper. If there's some merit to this line of inquiry, and it yields something revolutionary, I think the Chinese gover

I wasn't talking specifically about this paper. If there's some merit to this line of inquiry, and it yields something revolutionary, I think the Chinese government would be foolish not to turn it into leverage. Especially given the recent adversarial climate in trade relations and access to advanced equipment

admissionsguy 3y ago
Any technology will have a very long way from the initial discovery to widespread application. A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaproject. You propose that it is developed covertly to such an extend that it becomes a game changer that disrupts the current power balance before the US realises. I strongly disbelieve that such things can happen outside of fiction. For example, Manhattan project was known to the Soviets very early.
- hobs 3y ago
  Startups dont do massive infrastructure investment. The Manhattan project was not a startup, but one of the most expensive things the US government ever did.
- h0l0cube 3y ago
  You could be right, but it's hard to know how history would play out if a 'new cold war' with China started today, and with such a unique technological asymmetry (as room temperature superconductivity), and with a country that has a great deal more technical capability, self-sufficiency, and scruples than the former USSR.
  - ethbr1 3y ago
    The thing that brings China all those boons is that they make and sell things to the rest of the world. Absent free trade, their advantages dwindle. So the current "just shy of declared adversarial relationships" is optimum for them. Pushed further, say by retaining exclusive access to a game changing technology, and they start losing trade relationships (arguably, already have as manufacturing reallocated to SE Asia).
    - h0l0cube 3y ago
      The trade war between the US and China (and the precipitating outcones) were instigated by the US. The withholding of ASML lithography equipment is a case in point. That said, in spite of tarrifs from the west, China still has plenty of skin in the game, and the hypothetical suggests that trade would still be open enough for China to profit
      - SkyMarshal 3y ago
        >The trade war between the US and China (and the precipitating outcones) were instigated by the US. That's very arguable when it was the US who led the world in opening up to China in the 90s/early 2000s, opening its markets to China, bringing China into the WTO, etc. (all at great cost to middle class Americans). China was an economic basket case and incapable of developing on its own. No country in history has been more generous to another. And what did the US get in return? Currency manipulation, large scale economic espionage and mercantilist behavior, protectionism of Chinese markets and industries, fentanyl, militarization of South China Sea and bullying the countries there, largest and fastest military buildup since 1930s Germany, supporting Russia vs Ukraine, threatening war over Taiwan, etc. "Unrestricted warfare". The US didn't cause China to do any of that, that was all the CCP's decision. Responses like economic derisking/decoupling (aka trade war) are completely legitimate and unsurprising.
        p_j_w 3y ago
        >it was the US who led the world in opening up to China in the 90s/early 2000s, opening its markets to China, bringing China into the WTO, etc. (all at great cost to middle class Americans). China was an economic basket case and incapable of developing on its own. No country in history has been more generous to another. This is hilarious revisionism. We didn't do any of that out of generosity, we did it for profit. We saw a huge pool of cheap labor and decided we wanted to let our companies exploit that. We rubbed our hands together and grinned while selling them the proverbial rope.
        ethbr1 3y ago
- robocat 3y ago
  > A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaproject. I like your fervent almost religious belief in the US. Is it reality? What boundaries: software, environmental. Shenzhen felt like the most capitalist place I have ever been. It didn't seem to have big boy VC capital. However every single person seemed to be running a small capitalist business. Want to see a swarm of businesses? Let one small business in Shenzhen be seen to make a profit, and watch how many competitors and supply chain businesses pop up and how quickly. I don't know if it is a no/low beaurocracy zone but I am guessing they don't have to worry too much about IP roadblocks. I imagine the biggest problem is too much competition? I suspect young adults grok capitalism better there because as children they were embedded in the culture of endeavour, unlike westernized countries. I wasn't there for long enough, but would love to hear what others think of business startup in Shenzhen.

admissionsguy 3y ago

Any technology will have a very long way from the initial discovery to widespread application. A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaproject. You propose that it is developed covertly to such an extend that it becomes a game changer that disrupts the current power balance before the US realises. I strongly disbelieve that such things can happen outside of fiction. For example, Manhattan project was known to the Soviets very early.

hobs 3y ago
Startups dont do massive infrastructure investment. The Manhattan project was not a startup, but one of the most expensive things the US government ever did.
h0l0cube 3y ago
You could be right, but it's hard to know how history would play out if a 'new cold war' with China started today, and with such a unique technological asymmetry (as room temperature superconductivity), and with a country that has a great deal more technical capability, self-sufficiency, and scruples than the former USSR.
- ethbr1 3y ago
  The thing that brings China all those boons is that they make and sell things to the rest of the world. Absent free trade, their advantages dwindle. So the current "just shy of declared adversarial relationships" is optimum for them. Pushed further, say by retaining exclusive access to a game changing technology, and they start losing trade relationships (arguably, already have as manufacturing reallocated to SE Asia).
  - h0l0cube 3y ago
    The trade war between the US and China (and the precipitating outcones) were instigated by the US. The withholding of ASML lithography equipment is a case in point. That said, in spite of tarrifs from the west, China still has plenty of skin in the game, and the hypothetical suggests that trade would still be open enough for China to profit
    - SkyMarshal 3y ago
      >The trade war between the US and China (and the precipitating outcones) were instigated by the US. That's very arguable when it was the US who led the world in opening up to China in the 90s/early 2000s, opening its markets to China, bringing China into the WTO, etc. (all at great cost to middle class Americans). China was an economic basket case and incapable of developing on its own. No country in history has been more generous to another. And what did the US get in return? Currency manipulation, large scale economic espionage and mercantilist behavior, protectionism of Chinese markets and industries, fentanyl, militarization of South China Sea and bullying the countries there, largest and fastest military buildup since 1930s Germany, supporting Russia vs Ukraine, threatening war over Taiwan, etc. "Unrestricted warfare". The US didn't cause China to do any of that, that was all the CCP's decision. Responses like economic derisking/decoupling (aka trade war) are completely legitimate and unsurprising.
      - p_j_w 3y ago
        >it was the US who led the world in opening up to China in the 90s/early 2000s, opening its markets to China, bringing China into the WTO, etc. (all at great cost to middle class Americans). China was an economic basket case and incapable of developing on its own. No country in history has been more generous to another. This is hilarious revisionism. We didn't do any of that out of generosity, we did it for profit. We saw a huge pool of cheap labor and decided we wanted to let our companies exploit that. We rubbed our hands together and grinned while selling them the proverbial rope.
        ethbr1 3y ago
robocat 3y ago
> A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaproject. I like your fervent almost religious belief in the US. Is it reality? What boundaries: software, environmental. Shenzhen felt like the most capitalist place I have ever been. It didn't seem to have big boy VC capital. However every single person seemed to be running a small capitalist business. Want to see a swarm of businesses? Let one small business in Shenzhen be seen to make a profit, and watch how many competitors and supply chain businesses pop up and how quickly. I don't know if it is a no/low beaurocracy zone but I am guessing they don't have to worry too much about IP roadblocks. I imagine the biggest problem is too much competition? I suspect young adults grok capitalism better there because as children they were embedded in the culture of endeavour, unlike westernized countries. I wasn't there for long enough, but would love to hear what others think of business startup in Shenzhen.