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India and UAE have a long way to go and won't happen within a generation. India is a marvelous country, but there's no way it will sustain 7%+ a year. Furtherm

India and UAE have a long way to go and won't happen within a generation. India is a marvelous country, but there's no way it will sustain 7%+ a year. Furthermore, it's much further away than other BRICS in GDP per Capita. Let's be honest, China, even despite the recent economic turmoil, is the only country armed with the weapons needed to jump into the 20K+ GDP per Capita club soon. China is more self-sufficient than most think. Examples: Alibaba's international business is just 10%, rest is selling to Chinese. BYD builds and sells more EVs than Tesla, mostly to Chinese people. It's also heavily disciplined, low-crime rates etc. Chinese kids with access to school end up studying a lot and it's incredible the amount of talent existing there. Just read AI publications, check the authors and you'll see what I mean. Now, if you ask me whether China is a great country to live in, as it's not a democratic country and having a high GDP per Capita in such a system might not be so nice to live in, I agree. But if we are talking barely about income per Capita. It's China. China isn't that bothered about the US as well. It can do business with every other country. It has great relationships with Europe. And furthermore, it has the biggest growing consumer base in the world. Not even American businesses want to stay out of that market. Not saying China will ever surpass America in living standards or economics this century, but it has lots of potential to be extremely powerful. China is in for the long game. In around 20-30 years, India will be in a similar state, trying to avoid the middle-income trap, but that will take sometime. We still have to wait and see.

laszlojamf 3y ago
At the same time, their population is in freefall, they have a massive housing bubble, and they import most of their energy and foodstuffs. Not saying that you're wrong, but it's definitely more complicated than what you are making it out to be.
- thiago_fm 3y ago
  China has more than enough people, the challenge there is how to make them all consumers with fat wallets and raise their productivity. They indeed import most of their energy and food stuffs. Like any big exporter, see Germany for instance. Really similar, just different consuming power. For the housing bubble, it's part of planned development. It isn't as bad as a housing bubble in the US, as the government from China isn't democratic. The Chinese government can easily use its authority to tell the average Chinese to eat it up.
  - laszlojamf 3y ago
    Yeah, I don't know about the housing thing: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/business/china-too-many-homes-for-1-4-billion-people-intl-hnk/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/business/china-too-many-h... Also Germany is an interesting comparison since their population is _also_ in freefall and their are looking down the barrel of a major demographic crisis. And as for China not being democratic, the Chinese government is still very much in the hook for keeping people happy. Just look at what happened with the Covid restrictions when the population eventually had enough. The question is how bad it's gonna get next time around
  - Nydhal 3y ago
    It's not about the raw number of people, it's more about how old and aging they are. Age distribution is the key factor. 1 billion 60 year olds is not the same as 1 billion 20 year olds.
  - randomdata 3y ago
    > The Chinese government can easily use its authority to tell the average Chinese to eat it up. In theory, so could the US government. It has done exactly that before on a smaller scale. It would do it for housing too if it were deemed a good solution to the problem. I expect what you are implying is that Americans lack confidence in that being a good solution to something on a grandiose scale, like the housing situation, to see it though? That is something that appears to be true. But then why would the Chinese people have that confidence? The authority can tell anything it wants, but without the confidence of the people it isn't going to go anywhere.
kwere 3y ago
Chinese leadership has shown time and time again that is willing to ruin the country economic base rather than undergo any political change that will lower even the reputation of the "party as the center of the nation". Xi Jimping is going on the route of Mao, nationalizing or destroying all major businesses propping up in their stead State Owned/controlled alternatives. Entrepreneurs always felt like a necessary evil to the party, but Xi with his "common prosperity" isnt playing nice anymore

laszlojamf 3y ago

At the same time, their population is in freefall, they have a massive housing bubble, and they import most of their energy and foodstuffs. Not saying that you're wrong, but it's definitely more complicated than what you are making it out to be.

thiago_fm 3y ago
China has more than enough people, the challenge there is how to make them all consumers with fat wallets and raise their productivity. They indeed import most of their energy and food stuffs. Like any big exporter, see Germany for instance. Really similar, just different consuming power. For the housing bubble, it's part of planned development. It isn't as bad as a housing bubble in the US, as the government from China isn't democratic. The Chinese government can easily use its authority to tell the average Chinese to eat it up.
- laszlojamf 3y ago
  Yeah, I don't know about the housing thing: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/business/china-too-many-homes-for-1-4-billion-people-intl-hnk/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/business/china-too-many-h... Also Germany is an interesting comparison since their population is _also_ in freefall and their are looking down the barrel of a major demographic crisis. And as for China not being democratic, the Chinese government is still very much in the hook for keeping people happy. Just look at what happened with the Covid restrictions when the population eventually had enough. The question is how bad it's gonna get next time around
- Nydhal 3y ago
  It's not about the raw number of people, it's more about how old and aging they are. Age distribution is the key factor. 1 billion 60 year olds is not the same as 1 billion 20 year olds.
- randomdata 3y ago
  > The Chinese government can easily use its authority to tell the average Chinese to eat it up. In theory, so could the US government. It has done exactly that before on a smaller scale. It would do it for housing too if it were deemed a good solution to the problem. I expect what you are implying is that Americans lack confidence in that being a good solution to something on a grandiose scale, like the housing situation, to see it though? That is something that appears to be true. But then why would the Chinese people have that confidence? The authority can tell anything it wants, but without the confidence of the people it isn't going to go anywhere.

kwere 3y ago

Chinese leadership has shown time and time again that is willing to ruin the country economic base rather than undergo any political change that will lower even the reputation of the "party as the center of the nation". Xi Jimping is going on the route of Mao, nationalizing or destroying all major businesses propping up in their stead State Owned/controlled alternatives. Entrepreneurs always felt like a necessary evil to the party, but Xi with his "common prosperity" isnt playing nice anymore