Yes, but not what you're hinting at. The confounding variable is that California decided to let a bunch of violent criminals out of jail early in 2020 because

Yes, but not what you're hinting at. The confounding variable is that California decided to let a bunch of violent criminals out of jail early in 2020 because of Covid first, then because of equity concerns. It's unsurprising that letting murderers out of jail early increases the murder rate. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19-california-releases-violent-crime-murder-prisoners https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19... https://trends.vera.org/state/CA https://trends.vera.org/state/CA