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> Meanwhile California homicide rates increased 40% from 2019 to 2021. Aggravated assault with a firearm increased over 60%. The article says these programs wer

> Meanwhile California homicide rates increased 40% from 2019 to 2021. Aggravated assault with a firearm increased over 60%. The article says these programs were started in 2015. If they think what they're doing is working I'd like to see what they think failure looks like. Hmmm I wonder if there might have been some sort of confounding variable affecting all this between 2019 and 2021...

nostromo 3y ago
Yes, but not what you're hinting at. The confounding variable is that California decided to let a bunch of violent criminals out of jail early in 2020 because of Covid first, then because of equity concerns. It's unsurprising that letting murderers out of jail early increases the murder rate. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19-california-releases-violent-crime-murder-prisoners https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19... https://trends.vera.org/state/CA https://trends.vera.org/state/CA