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The data presented in the article are unconvincing. Of course people that enter a voluntary program to reduce crime will commit less crime. They're self-selec

The data presented in the article are unconvincing. Of course people that enter a voluntary program to reduce crime will commit less crime. They're self-selecting and indicating that they want to be reformed just by attending the program. Meanwhile California homicide rates increased 40% from 2019 to 2021. Aggravated assault with a firearm increased over 60%. The article says these programs were started in 2015. If they think what they're doing is working I'd like to see what they think failure looks like. https://openjustice.doj.ca.gov/exploration/crime-statistics/crimes-clearances https://openjustice.doj.ca.gov/exploration/crime-statistics/...

phren0logy 3y ago
This is one city in California (a large one, but still just one) with one small new pilot program. I'm not sure why you'd expect this to be reflected in state-wide statistics from 2019-2021.
everybodyknows 3y ago
Those stats go up through 2022. Why cut off at 2021? Could those crimes have gone down in 2022?
- nostromo 3y ago
  Nope. Look for yourself.
bdcravens 3y ago
The article discusses one prison, not statewide changes. Additionally, this program was introduced in 2023, after the period of time you're quoting. Violent crimes are up across the nation; it isn't limited to California. Those stats underscore the opposite of the argument you're making: if traditional incarceration and punishment isn't getting the job done, then maybe it's time to try something entirely new, regardless of how it affects people's sense of retribution and punishment.
- nostromo 3y ago
  These programs started in 2015. It's in the article.
  - bdcravens 3y ago
    Yes but only in the last year has California began implementing it in earnest. It says 9000 men have gone through such programs since 2015, which overall, reflects about 1% of the prison population in California. Given the success quoted in the next paragraph, it seems like California should be ramping up this number. > Since reentry programs such as this began in 2015, about 9,000 men have graduated from them. California, even after an enormous push to lower prison populations during the pandemic, still has about 94,000 people behind bars and 35,000 on parole. Each week, hundreds are released, most with $200 and little support. > But of those who participated for at least nine months in programs such as Amistad, 92% are not reconvicted of a new crime in their first year of release. By contrast, the latest figures for the general population released from California prison show that nearly 22% return to prison within 12 months.
CogitoCogito 3y ago
> Meanwhile California homicide rates increased 40% from 2019 to 2021. Aggravated assault with a firearm increased over 60%. The article says these programs were started in 2015. If they think what they're doing is working I'd like to see what they think failure looks like. Hmmm I wonder if there might have been some sort of confounding variable affecting all this between 2019 and 2021...
- nostromo 3y ago
  Yes, but not what you're hinting at. The confounding variable is that California decided to let a bunch of violent criminals out of jail early in 2020 because of Covid first, then because of equity concerns. It's unsurprising that letting murderers out of jail early increases the murder rate. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19-california-releases-violent-crime-murder-prisoners https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19... https://trends.vera.org/state/CA https://trends.vera.org/state/CA

phren0logy 3y ago

This is one city in California (a large one, but still just one) with one small new pilot program. I'm not sure why you'd expect this to be reflected in state-wide statistics from 2019-2021.

everybodyknows 3y ago

Those stats go up through 2022. Why cut off at 2021? Could those crimes have gone down in 2022?

nostromo 3y ago
Nope. Look for yourself.

bdcravens 3y ago

The article discusses one prison, not statewide changes. Additionally, this program was introduced in 2023, after the period of time you're quoting. Violent crimes are up across the nation; it isn't limited to California. Those stats underscore the opposite of the argument you're making: if traditional incarceration and punishment isn't getting the job done, then maybe it's time to try something entirely new, regardless of how it affects people's sense of retribution and punishment.

nostromo 3y ago
These programs started in 2015. It's in the article.
- bdcravens 3y ago
  Yes but only in the last year has California began implementing it in earnest. It says 9000 men have gone through such programs since 2015, which overall, reflects about 1% of the prison population in California. Given the success quoted in the next paragraph, it seems like California should be ramping up this number. > Since reentry programs such as this began in 2015, about 9,000 men have graduated from them. California, even after an enormous push to lower prison populations during the pandemic, still has about 94,000 people behind bars and 35,000 on parole. Each week, hundreds are released, most with $200 and little support. > But of those who participated for at least nine months in programs such as Amistad, 92% are not reconvicted of a new crime in their first year of release. By contrast, the latest figures for the general population released from California prison show that nearly 22% return to prison within 12 months.

CogitoCogito 3y ago

> Meanwhile California homicide rates increased 40% from 2019 to 2021. Aggravated assault with a firearm increased over 60%. The article says these programs were started in 2015. If they think what they're doing is working I'd like to see what they think failure looks like. Hmmm I wonder if there might have been some sort of confounding variable affecting all this between 2019 and 2021...

nostromo 3y ago
Yes, but not what you're hinting at. The confounding variable is that California decided to let a bunch of violent criminals out of jail early in 2020 because of Covid first, then because of equity concerns. It's unsurprising that letting murderers out of jail early increases the murder rate. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19-california-releases-violent-crime-murder-prisoners https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19... https://trends.vera.org/state/CA https://trends.vera.org/state/CA