> Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end up in one. It's significant comfort in all th

> Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end up in one. It's significant comfort in all those flights where no crashes occur, and for most of the time up to and during those that do end in crashes. Anyone who really believes they are about to embark on an activity having a 0.5 probability of killing them should put their affairs in order, but then, by the same reasoning, there's a 0.5 probability of dying while doing that! I believe the fallacy here is using an uninformative uniform prior when a much better, empirically-verified one is available.