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I think you're maybe missing the point. My understanding would be something like: My chances of being killed by a shark is basically 0%. But, if I'm in a shark
by snapcaster 3y ago
I think you're maybe missing the point. My understanding would be something like:
My chances of being killed by a shark is basically 0%. But, if I'm in a shark cage surrounded by sharks the idea that some global probability is 0% isn't relevant. Something like that?
- jefftk 3y agoIf I'm in a shark cage then the probability that matters is conditional on being in a shark cage, sure. And it should certainly be higher than the global probability. But I don't see how this connects to saying that anything that can go two ways is 50-50? ("always 50% because he either lives or dies from that operation")
- snapcaster 3y agoI think the 50% part should be ignored and the message is "when dealing with an individual sample, the general probability distribution isn't that useful?" I don't actually agree with that, just trying to steel man the point a bit. I do kind of see what he means