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> ... in developing a new platform The reason Meta/FB is failing is because they're motivated by $$ and fear. Because they don't own a platform like Apple, Go

> ... in developing a new platform The reason Meta/FB is failing is because they're motivated by $$ and fear. Because they don't own a platform like Apple, Google, MS they want their own pie too. Which platform that is, they don't so much care which is why they can say it's VR one day, then AI the next. And because they don't care, they'll be as successful as anything Google does that isn't search/ad related. If they're very lucky they'll find their GCP.

PaulHoule 3y ago
They're afraid of failing because they are running on a treadmill. The strength of Google and Facebook is that they have advertising platforms based on two-sided markets that are almost impossible to replicate. Google's draw to get people to participate is evergreen: you're always going to want to search the world's knowledge and be entertained by video content. Even if Google fails to develop the next destination site, that site is likely to depend on Google for advertising, and Google's advertising project is quite fungible and can be applied to any site. Facebook's draw is a particular activity that is less stable, that has a different "two-sidedness" to it. Small communities are interesting to their members because they are unusual in composition, for instance, young or LGBT friendly. When the community gets bigger it gets mainstream: today your grandmother is on Facebook and it's a good way for young people to share messages with her, not such a good place to share messages you don't want your grandmother to see. The "cool" people will move on and those left behind are "uncool". They haven't really "failed" yet but they're absolutely terrified that there's going to be something cool someday that they can't buy or replicate in a way that Google isn't.
- karmakaze 3y ago
  The problem with being driven by fear/failure is that it's not a destination, it's all the anti-destinations. Destinations are then selected, tried, rejected, repeat. If there's no vision and conviction in the chosen direction and commitment to it, you will lose out to competitors that are actually driven by passion to it, rather than merely heading there to avoid their negative motivator. My experience with something similar was getting hired at a tech company that was doing well. Their image appeared like a succeeding startup, but they were making bank, and with that their top priority was not upsetting the cash cow. It took over a year while I was there to release updates to the webapp more than a few times per month. This is why innovation happens elsewhere.

PaulHoule 3y ago

They're afraid of failing because they are running on a treadmill. The strength of Google and Facebook is that they have advertising platforms based on two-sided markets that are almost impossible to replicate. Google's draw to get people to participate is evergreen: you're always going to want to search the world's knowledge and be entertained by video content. Even if Google fails to develop the next destination site, that site is likely to depend on Google for advertising, and Google's advertising project is quite fungible and can be applied to any site. Facebook's draw is a particular activity that is less stable, that has a different "two-sidedness" to it. Small communities are interesting to their members because they are unusual in composition, for instance, young or LGBT friendly. When the community gets bigger it gets mainstream: today your grandmother is on Facebook and it's a good way for young people to share messages with her, not such a good place to share messages you don't want your grandmother to see. The "cool" people will move on and those left behind are "uncool". They haven't really "failed" yet but they're absolutely terrified that there's going to be something cool someday that they can't buy or replicate in a way that Google isn't.

karmakaze 3y ago
The problem with being driven by fear/failure is that it's not a destination, it's all the anti-destinations. Destinations are then selected, tried, rejected, repeat. If there's no vision and conviction in the chosen direction and commitment to it, you will lose out to competitors that are actually driven by passion to it, rather than merely heading there to avoid their negative motivator. My experience with something similar was getting hired at a tech company that was doing well. Their image appeared like a succeeding startup, but they were making bank, and with that their top priority was not upsetting the cash cow. It took over a year while I was there to release updates to the webapp more than a few times per month. This is why innovation happens elsewhere.