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Waymo is safer than a human driver already. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/googles-waymo-safety-study-on-driverless-cars/3311188/ https://www.nbcbay

Waymo is safer than a human driver already. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/googles-waymo-safety-study-on-driverless-cars/3311188/ https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/googles-waymo-safe... Of course there will be locations where humans are required, but we can already start using computers in those locations where they perform better.

Tor3 3y ago
Where I drive daily I constantly have to make decisions which no self-driving car system I know about can possibly do. They don't foresee upcoming gridlocks caused by you driving completely legally but blocking (again, legally) a car from crossing to a side road, that car again blocks the car behind it, which blocks the car in front of you from doing a left turn, which means that you can't move and unlock the gridlock. That's just one on my commute. Then there's driving uphill on snow, seeing a person walking on the other side of the road and a car coming in the other direction. You foresee that this car will have some problems braking for that person (which would be the normal procedure - I'm coming the other way, that car shouldn't try to pass the person). So, what I do is to slow down and give that other driver confidence to pass. And sometimes I have to do the other thing - speeding up a bit in order to create room for another car to let that car avoid problems (if I were a computer I would have no reason to think about that). This is also something happening all the time where I drive. And tons of other understanding-the-traffic cases. Self-driving systems only follow the rules. That is not sufficient. When general artificial intelligence eventually arrives - that's when we get self-driving cars better than humans, in any other cases than for trivial cases. And yes, computers could drive cars in trivial places, it's just that those places are pretty much non-existing where I live and drive.
- konschubert 3y ago
  You say all this, yet waymo is demonstrably safer than the average driver. Uphill in snow maybe you’ll have to take the wheel, I’ll give you that.
  - Tor3 3y ago
    Waymo hasn't tried driving outside its comfort zone, so I'll argue that it's not demonstrated.
    - pb7 3y ago
      Humans should also abstain from driving outside of their comfort zones.
      - edgyquant 3y ago
        Regardless, they don’t and do mostly fine
    - google234123 3y ago
      Have you driven in SF?
      - Tor3 3y ago
        No, never been to SF, I have no idea how people drive there or what the conditions are. Except that they're very different from where I drive (except when I'm in the town centre) - roads without sidewalks, mostly no signal lights, snow a large part of the year, and other special conditions.
        pie420 3y ago
        Good thing that all airports follow similar standards and are all standardized in terms of lighting, signage, etc.
        tjohns 3y ago
        That is not quite accurate. There are certainly standards for airport markings, but there are many non-standard airports... especially when flying at anything smaller than an international airport. (And yes, even airliners will sometimes land at small regional airports.)
- atonse 3y ago
  While everything you mention are signs of good, defensive driving and seeing more than "Just following the rules," average human drivers don't do what you do. And that's what the automated systems are compared to. So again, while I think ultimately the automated systems should also do what you're talking about, right now, if the other article is true in its claims that Waymo is safer, it seems sufficient to follow the rules to achieve a certain level of safety.
  - Tor3 3y ago
    [other drivers] But they do - where I live. It's very rare to see people not doing that, so much so that everyone really notices. Edit: And the point is really that strictly just following rules (i.e. just drive if you're in the right and the signs say so) will cause accidents and worse. For others, not necessarily myself. On my commute and nearby.
    - deleted 3y ago
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- deleted 3y ago
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- konschubert 3y ago
  What makes you think that a self-driving car cannot have similarly predictive algorithms?
  - Tor3 3y ago
    There's nothing so far indicating that they have, at this point. Though I doubt predictive algorithms would work - there are all kinds of situations, all slightly different, and lots of them about understanding what someone else might be thinking. As I mentioned, I think we'll need general artificial intelligence to do this properly.
rootusrootus 3y ago
> Waymo is safer than a human driver already. Is that data controlled for environment? I.e. it must only compare Waymo driving with human drivers in exactly the same environment. Same road, same conditions, same time, etc. Waymo doesn't take any difficult routes.
- deleted 3y ago
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- ExoticPearTree 3y ago
  Not to mention the fact that when it encounters a situation never seen before it just "freezes" - happened a few times and caused traffic jams. What I give these cars is their ability to react "instantaneously" to emergency situations like automated emergency braking when there is an obstacle in the front of the car or the car in front suddenly brakes.
- elzbardico 3y ago
  IMHO, there was not even enough data to draw this conclusion from the study. 3.8 million miles looks like a lot, but it is laughable for traffic safety conclusions. And of course Waymo is going to milk as much as possible from their study, we just shouldn't trust it blindly.
elzbardico 3y ago
We need far more data to say this with certainty. This data is from only 3.8 million miles, in carefully controlled conditions with brand new high quality vehicles. Besides this comes from Waymo, they didn't release the data used in their study. Of course Waymo will try to paint their cars in the most favourable light possible. Maybe they are being honest, but that's not the point. The point is that public policy shouldn't trust the allegations of a private company at face value.

Tor3 3y ago

Where I drive daily I constantly have to make decisions which no self-driving car system I know about can possibly do. They don't foresee upcoming gridlocks caused by you driving completely legally but blocking (again, legally) a car from crossing to a side road, that car again blocks the car behind it, which blocks the car in front of you from doing a left turn, which means that you can't move and unlock the gridlock. That's just one on my commute. Then there's driving uphill on snow, seeing a person walking on the other side of the road and a car coming in the other direction. You foresee that this car will have some problems braking for that person (which would be the normal procedure - I'm coming the other way, that car shouldn't try to pass the person). So, what I do is to slow down and give that other driver confidence to pass. And sometimes I have to do the other thing - speeding up a bit in order to create room for another car to let that car avoid problems (if I were a computer I would have no reason to think about that). This is also something happening all the time where I drive. And tons of other understanding-the-traffic cases. Self-driving systems only follow the rules. That is not sufficient. When general artificial intelligence eventually arrives - that's when we get self-driving cars better than humans, in any other cases than for trivial cases. And yes, computers could drive cars in trivial places, it's just that those places are pretty much non-existing where I live and drive.

konschubert 3y ago
You say all this, yet waymo is demonstrably safer than the average driver. Uphill in snow maybe you’ll have to take the wheel, I’ll give you that.
- Tor3 3y ago
  Waymo hasn't tried driving outside its comfort zone, so I'll argue that it's not demonstrated.
  - pb7 3y ago
    Humans should also abstain from driving outside of their comfort zones.
    - edgyquant 3y ago
      Regardless, they don’t and do mostly fine
  - google234123 3y ago
    Have you driven in SF?
    - Tor3 3y ago
      No, never been to SF, I have no idea how people drive there or what the conditions are. Except that they're very different from where I drive (except when I'm in the town centre) - roads without sidewalks, mostly no signal lights, snow a large part of the year, and other special conditions.
      - pie420 3y ago
        Good thing that all airports follow similar standards and are all standardized in terms of lighting, signage, etc.
        tjohns 3y ago
        That is not quite accurate. There are certainly standards for airport markings, but there are many non-standard airports... especially when flying at anything smaller than an international airport. (And yes, even airliners will sometimes land at small regional airports.)
atonse 3y ago
While everything you mention are signs of good, defensive driving and seeing more than "Just following the rules," average human drivers don't do what you do. And that's what the automated systems are compared to. So again, while I think ultimately the automated systems should also do what you're talking about, right now, if the other article is true in its claims that Waymo is safer, it seems sufficient to follow the rules to achieve a certain level of safety.
- Tor3 3y ago
  [other drivers] But they do - where I live. It's very rare to see people not doing that, so much so that everyone really notices. Edit: And the point is really that strictly just following rules (i.e. just drive if you're in the right and the signs say so) will cause accidents and worse. For others, not necessarily myself. On my commute and nearby.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
konschubert 3y ago
What makes you think that a self-driving car cannot have similarly predictive algorithms?
- Tor3 3y ago
  There's nothing so far indicating that they have, at this point. Though I doubt predictive algorithms would work - there are all kinds of situations, all slightly different, and lots of them about understanding what someone else might be thinking. As I mentioned, I think we'll need general artificial intelligence to do this properly.

rootusrootus 3y ago

> Waymo is safer than a human driver already. Is that data controlled for environment? I.e. it must only compare Waymo driving with human drivers in exactly the same environment. Same road, same conditions, same time, etc. Waymo doesn't take any difficult routes.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ExoticPearTree 3y ago
Not to mention the fact that when it encounters a situation never seen before it just "freezes" - happened a few times and caused traffic jams. What I give these cars is their ability to react "instantaneously" to emergency situations like automated emergency braking when there is an obstacle in the front of the car or the car in front suddenly brakes.
elzbardico 3y ago
IMHO, there was not even enough data to draw this conclusion from the study. 3.8 million miles looks like a lot, but it is laughable for traffic safety conclusions. And of course Waymo is going to milk as much as possible from their study, we just shouldn't trust it blindly.

elzbardico 3y ago

We need far more data to say this with certainty. This data is from only 3.8 million miles, in carefully controlled conditions with brand new high quality vehicles. Besides this comes from Waymo, they didn't release the data used in their study. Of course Waymo will try to paint their cars in the most favourable light possible. Maybe they are being honest, but that's not the point. The point is that public policy shouldn't trust the allegations of a private company at face value.