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I mean, it clearly doesn't work if taken to be literal probabilities. But I think it also doesn't work as a more metaphorical guide to life?
by jefftk 3y ago
I mean, it clearly doesn't work if taken to be literal probabilities. But I think it also doesn't work as a more metaphorical guide to life?
- kergonath 3y agoIt clearly does not work in any circumstances. We over-emphasise the likelihood of rare events already, saying that something has even odds just because it is conceivable that it could happen is completely useless. Which is not to say that you should not plan for extremely rare events, but you certainly should not make decisions assuming they are likely to happen.