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I didn’t say that anyone should enter anything manually into a computer, nor did I claim that a human reading a computer screen is how an automated runway syste

I didn’t say that anyone should enter anything manually into a computer, nor did I claim that a human reading a computer screen is how an automated runway system would ensure safety. As an aside, humans are not doing a good job at driving cars and should leave that to the computers.

ExoticPearTree 3y ago
Is there a car autopilot system that good on the market that only you know about? And that can replace the driver completely?
- konschubert 3y ago
  Waymo is safer than a human driver already. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/googles-waymo-safety-study-on-driverless-cars/3311188/ https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/googles-waymo-safe... Of course there will be locations where humans are required, but we can already start using computers in those locations where they perform better.
  - Tor3 3y ago
    Where I drive daily I constantly have to make decisions which no self-driving car system I know about can possibly do. They don't foresee upcoming gridlocks caused by you driving completely legally but blocking (again, legally) a car from crossing to a side road, that car again blocks the car behind it, which blocks the car in front of you from doing a left turn, which means that you can't move and unlock the gridlock. That's just one on my commute. Then there's driving uphill on snow, seeing a person walking on the other side of the road and a car coming in the other direction. You foresee that this car will have some problems braking for that person (which would be the normal procedure - I'm coming the other way, that car shouldn't try to pass the person). So, what I do is to slow down and give that other driver confidence to pass. And sometimes I have to do the other thing - speeding up a bit in order to create room for another car to let that car avoid problems (if I were a computer I would have no reason to think about that). This is also something happening all the time where I drive. And tons of other understanding-the-traffic cases. Self-driving systems only follow the rules. That is not sufficient. When general artificial intelligence eventually arrives - that's when we get self-driving cars better than humans, in any other cases than for trivial cases. And yes, computers could drive cars in trivial places, it's just that those places are pretty much non-existing where I live and drive.
    - konschubert 3y ago
      You say all this, yet waymo is demonstrably safer than the average driver. Uphill in snow maybe you’ll have to take the wheel, I’ll give you that.
      - Tor3 3y ago
        Waymo hasn't tried driving outside its comfort zone, so I'll argue that it's not demonstrated.
        pb7 3y ago
        Humans should also abstain from driving outside of their comfort zones.
        edgyquant 3y ago
        Regardless, they don’t and do mostly fine
        google234123 3y ago
        Have you driven in SF?
        Tor3 3y ago
        No, never been to SF, I have no idea how people drive there or what the conditions are. Except that they're very different from where I drive (except when I'm in the town centre) - roads without sidewalks, mostly no signal lights, snow a large part of the year, and other special conditions.
        pie420 3y ago
        Good thing that all airports follow similar standards and are all standardized in terms of lighting, signage, etc.
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    > Waymo is safer than a human driver already. Is that data controlled for environment? I.e. it must only compare Waymo driving with human drivers in exactly the same environment. Same road, same conditions, same time, etc. Waymo doesn't take any difficult routes.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - ExoticPearTree 3y ago
      Not to mention the fact that when it encounters a situation never seen before it just "freezes" - happened a few times and caused traffic jams. What I give these cars is their ability to react "instantaneously" to emergency situations like automated emergency braking when there is an obstacle in the front of the car or the car in front suddenly brakes.
    - elzbardico 3y ago
      IMHO, there was not even enough data to draw this conclusion from the study. 3.8 million miles looks like a lot, but it is laughable for traffic safety conclusions. And of course Waymo is going to milk as much as possible from their study, we just shouldn't trust it blindly.
  - elzbardico 3y ago
    We need far more data to say this with certainty. This data is from only 3.8 million miles, in carefully controlled conditions with brand new high quality vehicles. Besides this comes from Waymo, they didn't release the data used in their study. Of course Waymo will try to paint their cars in the most favourable light possible. Maybe they are being honest, but that's not the point. The point is that public policy shouldn't trust the allegations of a private company at face value.
- chrischen 3y ago
  Mercedes just released a level 3 car. Openpilot, while primarily lane keeping, does it way better than any human can. Driving doesn’t require an advanced degree in physics. It’s mostly a mish mash of fairly mundane tasks.
  - throw0101d 3y ago
    > Driving doesn’t require an advanced degree in physics. It’s mostly a mish mash of fairly mundane tasks. Generally not wrong, but when it becomes non-mundane, it can become so in a hurry. This is why I'm sometimes skeptical about statistics that say "x% of airplane crashes are human error". Well maybe, but by the time the humans get involved the automated systems have often thrown up their proverbial hands and digitally exclaimed "Jesus take the wheel". I think having computers take over the mundane parts may help collision rates as people can get numbed and bored by the monotony. One has to be careful about having the right level of automation and control for the given situation, as per the famous "Children of the Magenta Line" presentation: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ESJH1NLMLs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ESJH1NLMLs > “Children of the magenta line” has become shorthand for pilots who manage and monitor systems but lack the stick-and-rudder skills to fly the airplane with authority. You may hear it wielded as an epithet in a discussion of “real pilots” versus “kids these days.” But in many cockpits today, automation illiteracy may be as dangerous as automation dependency. Vanderburgh’s insights shouldn’t drive us to reject automation altogether, but rather put it in its proper place in our pilot toolkits. Just as you should hand-fly regularly to keep your stick-and-rudder skills sharp, you should also practice using the technology available in the aircraft you fly. * https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2023/march/flight-training-magazine/always-learning-magenta-line https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2023/march/flig... * https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/children-of-the-magenta-automation-paradox-pt-1/ https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/children-of-the-magen... * https://skybrary.aero/articles/cockpit-automation-advantages-and-safety-challenges https://skybrary.aero/articles/cockpit-automation-advantages... * https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/sp/2015/05/msp2015050104/13rRUxASutL https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/sp/2015/05/msp2015050...
    - svieira 3y ago

ExoticPearTree 3y ago

Is there a car autopilot system that good on the market that only you know about? And that can replace the driver completely?

konschubert 3y ago
Waymo is safer than a human driver already. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/googles-waymo-safety-study-on-driverless-cars/3311188/ https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/googles-waymo-safe... Of course there will be locations where humans are required, but we can already start using computers in those locations where they perform better.
- Tor3 3y ago
  Where I drive daily I constantly have to make decisions which no self-driving car system I know about can possibly do. They don't foresee upcoming gridlocks caused by you driving completely legally but blocking (again, legally) a car from crossing to a side road, that car again blocks the car behind it, which blocks the car in front of you from doing a left turn, which means that you can't move and unlock the gridlock. That's just one on my commute. Then there's driving uphill on snow, seeing a person walking on the other side of the road and a car coming in the other direction. You foresee that this car will have some problems braking for that person (which would be the normal procedure - I'm coming the other way, that car shouldn't try to pass the person). So, what I do is to slow down and give that other driver confidence to pass. And sometimes I have to do the other thing - speeding up a bit in order to create room for another car to let that car avoid problems (if I were a computer I would have no reason to think about that). This is also something happening all the time where I drive. And tons of other understanding-the-traffic cases. Self-driving systems only follow the rules. That is not sufficient. When general artificial intelligence eventually arrives - that's when we get self-driving cars better than humans, in any other cases than for trivial cases. And yes, computers could drive cars in trivial places, it's just that those places are pretty much non-existing where I live and drive.
  - konschubert 3y ago
    You say all this, yet waymo is demonstrably safer than the average driver. Uphill in snow maybe you’ll have to take the wheel, I’ll give you that.
    - Tor3 3y ago
      Waymo hasn't tried driving outside its comfort zone, so I'll argue that it's not demonstrated.
      - pb7 3y ago
        Humans should also abstain from driving outside of their comfort zones.
        edgyquant 3y ago
        Regardless, they don’t and do mostly fine
      - google234123 3y ago
        Have you driven in SF?
        Tor3 3y ago
        No, never been to SF, I have no idea how people drive there or what the conditions are. Except that they're very different from where I drive (except when I'm in the town centre) - roads without sidewalks, mostly no signal lights, snow a large part of the year, and other special conditions.
        pie420 3y ago
        Good thing that all airports follow similar standards and are all standardized in terms of lighting, signage, etc.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  > Waymo is safer than a human driver already. Is that data controlled for environment? I.e. it must only compare Waymo driving with human drivers in exactly the same environment. Same road, same conditions, same time, etc. Waymo doesn't take any difficult routes.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - ExoticPearTree 3y ago
    Not to mention the fact that when it encounters a situation never seen before it just "freezes" - happened a few times and caused traffic jams. What I give these cars is their ability to react "instantaneously" to emergency situations like automated emergency braking when there is an obstacle in the front of the car or the car in front suddenly brakes.
  - elzbardico 3y ago
    IMHO, there was not even enough data to draw this conclusion from the study. 3.8 million miles looks like a lot, but it is laughable for traffic safety conclusions. And of course Waymo is going to milk as much as possible from their study, we just shouldn't trust it blindly.
- elzbardico 3y ago
  We need far more data to say this with certainty. This data is from only 3.8 million miles, in carefully controlled conditions with brand new high quality vehicles. Besides this comes from Waymo, they didn't release the data used in their study. Of course Waymo will try to paint their cars in the most favourable light possible. Maybe they are being honest, but that's not the point. The point is that public policy shouldn't trust the allegations of a private company at face value.
chrischen 3y ago
Mercedes just released a level 3 car. Openpilot, while primarily lane keeping, does it way better than any human can. Driving doesn’t require an advanced degree in physics. It’s mostly a mish mash of fairly mundane tasks.
- throw0101d 3y ago
  > Driving doesn’t require an advanced degree in physics. It’s mostly a mish mash of fairly mundane tasks. Generally not wrong, but when it becomes non-mundane, it can become so in a hurry. This is why I'm sometimes skeptical about statistics that say "x% of airplane crashes are human error". Well maybe, but by the time the humans get involved the automated systems have often thrown up their proverbial hands and digitally exclaimed "Jesus take the wheel". I think having computers take over the mundane parts may help collision rates as people can get numbed and bored by the monotony. One has to be careful about having the right level of automation and control for the given situation, as per the famous "Children of the Magenta Line" presentation: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ESJH1NLMLs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ESJH1NLMLs > “Children of the magenta line” has become shorthand for pilots who manage and monitor systems but lack the stick-and-rudder skills to fly the airplane with authority. You may hear it wielded as an epithet in a discussion of “real pilots” versus “kids these days.” But in many cockpits today, automation illiteracy may be as dangerous as automation dependency. Vanderburgh’s insights shouldn’t drive us to reject automation altogether, but rather put it in its proper place in our pilot toolkits. Just as you should hand-fly regularly to keep your stick-and-rudder skills sharp, you should also practice using the technology available in the aircraft you fly. * https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2023/march/flight-training-magazine/always-learning-magenta-line https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2023/march/flig... * https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/children-of-the-magenta-automation-paradox-pt-1/ https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/children-of-the-magen... * https://skybrary.aero/articles/cockpit-automation-advantages-and-safety-challenges https://skybrary.aero/articles/cockpit-automation-advantages... * https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/sp/2015/05/msp2015050104/13rRUxASutL https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/sp/2015/05/msp2015050...
  - svieira 3y ago