> Expect less new builds in the future Builders want to build, and lenders want to lend. I recently discovered that in my old neighborhood in Chicago, 4 high

> Expect less new builds in the future Builders want to build, and lenders want to lend. I recently discovered that in my old neighborhood in Chicago, 4 high rise residential towers have started construction in a 3-block radius in the last 6 months. And over on the other side of downtown, developers have secured financing to begin construction of an 800+ foot tall apartment building on the site of the $300 million hole in the ground (an Irish developer had planned to built a 2000 foot tall building, but went bankrupt while building the foundation). I saw a report by the city of Chicago last month that broke out office vacancy by age of the building, and in new towers the vacancy rate is single digits. Now, you and I both know that the likely explanation is that the tenants of these buildings were solid companies that signed long-term leases as the construction was finishing up. Once those first leases end, all bets are off. But, “It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It”. Builders are going to point at that stat and say that new office towers are a good investment. Lenders are going to point at that stat and say that new office towers are safe to finance. Count on it.