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> moving back towards an inefficient state controlled economy Didn't the Soviets go from agrarian to superpower and give the US a merry chase before collapsing

> moving back towards an inefficient state controlled economy Didn't the Soviets go from agrarian to superpower and give the US a merry chase before collapsing? This might be a long arc. > slow down China's growth and make them much less of a threat. If I was a dictator and the population was starting to get upset over stalled growth, starting a war would seem to be a great way to generate excuses for economic hardship and crackdowns. Oh, and it would give the factories something to do other than get undercut by Vietnam. War sounds like the answer to all of my problems. I think this situation makes me more of a threat, don't you? > trick China into behaving stupidly Remember, they just acquired the world's industrial base. With our encouragement, because we thought it would turn them into a liberal democracy. It, uhhh, didn't. So did we really trick them? Or did we sell them the rope with which they will hang us (to paraphrase the Lenin quote)?

edgyquant 3y ago
No, the “war as a distraction thing” is an over repeated trope with little nuance or bearing on reality. War doesn’t distract but puts all eyes on you and losing one (which is always a risk) is a sure fire way to lose any power you were looking to keep via distraction anyway. Societies go to war when they think they can win and achieve political aims. Any distraction is an excuse to do something they were likely to do anyway.
- jdewerd 3y ago
  > over repeated trope with little nuance Says the guy whose entire argument is "war is risky." Well, yeah -- and a ruler weighs that risk against the risk of losing legitimacy and power due to a stalling economy. This story has repeated many times in history. That's why it's a "trope." > political aims. Any distraction is an excuse to do something they were likely to do anyway. You don't have to read between the lines on Taiwan, you can simply read the lines.
  - Duya-Taksis 3y ago
    [flagged]
x-complexity 3y ago
> > moving back towards an inefficient state controlled economy > Didn't the Soviets go from agrarian to superpower and give the US a merry chase before collapsing? This might be a long arc. The source for their leap "from agrarian to superpower" came from the satellite states that they had in control, and their usage of 5 year plans to accelerate growth of their heavy industries, at the sacrifice of growth in consumer-oriented industries. Nationally, the USSR was able to catch up quickly to the US after WWII, and likewise pull off some punches to publicly show their superiority in certain fields: - Internal political resistance to the transistor & computer tech in general made them laggards when it came to alleviating bureaucratic inefficiencies. They were initially on good paces to catch up technologically with the US, but their reliance on reverse engineering & not building up their own advancements meant that the gap would inevitably widen as they'd always be playing catch up to the Western space. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnHdqPBrtH8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnHdqPBrtH8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLOD5f-q0as https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLOD5f-q0as - The lack of development into the consumer-oriented industries compared to the Western sphere in general made the economies of the USSR reliant on the State to shoulder that burden, making them penultimately responsible for placating the wants of the USSR citizens. - The below-market oil transfer agreements made to keep the USSR sphere of influence together (CMEA/Comecon) came under strain as the USSR was unable to keep growth in their oil production/exports at a consistently high rate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrZ1eMlzwhc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrZ1eMlzwhc

edgyquant 3y ago

No, the “war as a distraction thing” is an over repeated trope with little nuance or bearing on reality. War doesn’t distract but puts all eyes on you and losing one (which is always a risk) is a sure fire way to lose any power you were looking to keep via distraction anyway. Societies go to war when they think they can win and achieve political aims. Any distraction is an excuse to do something they were likely to do anyway.

jdewerd 3y ago
> over repeated trope with little nuance Says the guy whose entire argument is "war is risky." Well, yeah -- and a ruler weighs that risk against the risk of losing legitimacy and power due to a stalling economy. This story has repeated many times in history. That's why it's a "trope." > political aims. Any distraction is an excuse to do something they were likely to do anyway. You don't have to read between the lines on Taiwan, you can simply read the lines.
- Duya-Taksis 3y ago
  [flagged]

x-complexity 3y ago

> > moving back towards an inefficient state controlled economy > Didn't the Soviets go from agrarian to superpower and give the US a merry chase before collapsing? This might be a long arc. The source for their leap "from agrarian to superpower" came from the satellite states that they had in control, and their usage of 5 year plans to accelerate growth of their heavy industries, at the sacrifice of growth in consumer-oriented industries. Nationally, the USSR was able to catch up quickly to the US after WWII, and likewise pull off some punches to publicly show their superiority in certain fields: - Internal political resistance to the transistor & computer tech in general made them laggards when it came to alleviating bureaucratic inefficiencies. They were initially on good paces to catch up technologically with the US, but their reliance on reverse engineering & not building up their own advancements meant that the gap would inevitably widen as they'd always be playing catch up to the Western space. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnHdqPBrtH8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnHdqPBrtH8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLOD5f-q0as https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLOD5f-q0as - The lack of development into the consumer-oriented industries compared to the Western sphere in general made the economies of the USSR reliant on the State to shoulder that burden, making them penultimately responsible for placating the wants of the USSR citizens. - The below-market oil transfer agreements made to keep the USSR sphere of influence together (CMEA/Comecon) came under strain as the USSR was unable to keep growth in their oil production/exports at a consistently high rate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrZ1eMlzwhc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrZ1eMlzwhc