2 ms·

> The "half a million" metric comes from an estimate during the pandemic, not since it. That's not completely accurate. Even your own link includes part of 202

> The "half a million" metric comes from an estimate during the pandemic, not since it. That's not completely accurate. Even your own link includes part of 2022 which is the most recent full year for record keeping. And during 2022, net outmigration from the city totaled approximately 200k, balanced by a natural increase of ~30k, so net total = ~170k.[0] And while I haven't yet seen estimates for just the city for our current year, NY State lost an additional ~100k in 2023 [1]. Sure there's migrants to the city, but for all the hue and cry, they are arriving at the rate of about 100k a year [2], which for a city the size of New York wouldn't necessarily stem the tide of people moving out. It might even make it worse if the influx of migrants is influencing longtime residence on the fence to finally pack up and join the relatives in Florida. I agree that the 500k estimate is likely to be revised up or down to some extent but it's almost certain it's still going to be a loss of hundreds of thousands. [0] https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/reports/osdc/pdf/report-15-2024.pdf https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/reports/osdc/pdf/report-15-2024... [1] https://www.fox5ny.com/news/new-york-state-population-2023 https://www.fox5ny.com/news/new-york-state-population-2023 [2] https://nypost.com/2023/09/21/new-york-city-has-taken-in-95000-migrants-in-2023/ https://nypost.com/2023/09/21/new-york-city-has-taken-in-950...

woodruffw 3y ago
We will see; I think there's limited value to these kinds of off-year counts. > It might even make it worse if the influx of migrants is influencing longtime residence on the fence to finally pack up and join the relatives in Florida. This is anecdotal on my part, but I see a lot of Texas and Florida plates in my neighborhood, on cars that have been parked on the same block for months. Pretending to live in another state is one of the oldest tax dodge tricks in the city; I expect the city and state's departments of taxation to further scrutinize this as revenue priorities shift.

woodruffw 3y ago

We will see; I think there's limited value to these kinds of off-year counts. > It might even make it worse if the influx of migrants is influencing longtime residence on the fence to finally pack up and join the relatives in Florida. This is anecdotal on my part, but I see a lot of Texas and Florida plates in my neighborhood, on cars that have been parked on the same block for months. Pretending to live in another state is one of the oldest tax dodge tricks in the city; I expect the city and state's departments of taxation to further scrutinize this as revenue priorities shift.