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I wonder if the current refresh cycle for school buses is a barrier for these. Schools are used to keeping a bus in service for 12-15 years or more. And the bu

by tyingq 3y ago

I wonder if the current refresh cycle for school buses is a barrier for these. Schools are used to keeping a bus in service for 12-15 years or more. And the bus budget is built around that longevity. I don't know if the electric buses, battery, etc, are built for that, or if they have enough runtime savings to offset the capital cost. One source: https://www.ridezum.com/blog/school-bus-fleet-age-the-hidden-problem-impacting-schools https://www.ridezum.com/blog/school-bus-fleet-age-the-hidden...

almostnormal 3y ago
Other busses are used the whole day, which seems diffucult to do on batteries (stops too short to charge). School busses, however, are used twice per day, which seems perfect for battery powered busses. If any bus works on batteries, it's a school bus.
- Someone 3y ago
  > If any bus works on batteries, it's a school bus. That probably is true. On the other hand, school buses are underused, so I guess owners won’t want to spend much money buying new ones early. > Other busses are used the whole day, which seems difficult to do on batteries (stops too short to charge) They aren’t too short. Googling “automatic electric bus charging at stops” gets many different offerings for rapidly charging at every bus stop and/or at turnaround terminals (where drivers often have to take a break by law) Also many tenders for new city buses in the rich part of Western Europe have requirements that effectively say “buses must be electric” nowadays, and I haven’t heard of lots of buses running out of power there. Part of the reason for those requirements is the EU directive “on the promotion of clean road transport vehicles in support of low-emission mobility” (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:02009L0033-20190801 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:02...) It (roughly speaking) says 22.5% of new buses must be zero-emission in 2025. Some countries easily met that target, though, so that likely isn’t the only reason. https://think.ing.com/articles/all-aboard-europes-electric-bus-revolution-290921 https://think.ing.com/articles/all-aboard-europes-electric-b... says: “In 2016, the Netherlands adopted the ambitious target to fully decarbonise its public bus fleet of 5,500 buses by 2030, with 100% zero-emission new inflow from 2025 onwards. In 2020, over 80% of newly registered buses were already zero emission, resulting in a fleet share close to 25% in early 2021” and “Germany aims to have electrified half of its total public bus fleet in 2030 in its Klimaschutzprogramm.”
Retric 3y ago
Modern EV’s easily least 25 years. So, if anything EV school buses could have longer lifespans due to lower maintenance requirements. Critically, there’s multiple routes modest range decline is unlikely to be an issue as long as newer buses are assigned to longer routes.
- clintonb 3y ago
  > Modern EV’s easily least 25 years. Source, please?
  - Retric 3y ago
    Existing cars and electrical systems, there isn’t a lot of novelty involved here. “Standard cars in this day and age are expected to keep running up to 200,000 miles, while cars with electric engines are expected to last for up to 300,000 miles.” https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-miles-does-a-car-last/ https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-mil... Of note older cars tend to go to be driven by teens etc who drive less meaning EV range is less of a concern. Meanwhile battery replacement costs keep falling, 13k to replace a model 3’s battery is way down and predicted to falling further. So the used market is likely to segregate with some % seeing 1 battery replacement in their lifetime and others having quite significant degradation.
    - hulitu 3y ago
      > are expected to keep running up to 200,000 miles, while cars with electric engines are expected to last English might not be my native language but, as far as i know, "last" is not equal with "expected to last".
      - Moomoomoo309 3y ago
        Well, yes, but to say that it will last means it cannot fail before then, which obviously cannot be true. Any vehicle can fail right out of the lot, so it's about when they usually fail, or how long they usually last.

by tyingq 3y ago

almostnormal 3y ago

Other busses are used the whole day, which seems diffucult to do on batteries (stops too short to charge). School busses, however, are used twice per day, which seems perfect for battery powered busses. If any bus works on batteries, it's a school bus.

Someone 3y ago
> If any bus works on batteries, it's a school bus. That probably is true. On the other hand, school buses are underused, so I guess owners won’t want to spend much money buying new ones early. > Other busses are used the whole day, which seems difficult to do on batteries (stops too short to charge) They aren’t too short. Googling “automatic electric bus charging at stops” gets many different offerings for rapidly charging at every bus stop and/or at turnaround terminals (where drivers often have to take a break by law) Also many tenders for new city buses in the rich part of Western Europe have requirements that effectively say “buses must be electric” nowadays, and I haven’t heard of lots of buses running out of power there. Part of the reason for those requirements is the EU directive “on the promotion of clean road transport vehicles in support of low-emission mobility” (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:02009L0033-20190801 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:02...) It (roughly speaking) says 22.5% of new buses must be zero-emission in 2025. Some countries easily met that target, though, so that likely isn’t the only reason. https://think.ing.com/articles/all-aboard-europes-electric-bus-revolution-290921 https://think.ing.com/articles/all-aboard-europes-electric-b... says: “In 2016, the Netherlands adopted the ambitious target to fully decarbonise its public bus fleet of 5,500 buses by 2030, with 100% zero-emission new inflow from 2025 onwards. In 2020, over 80% of newly registered buses were already zero emission, resulting in a fleet share close to 25% in early 2021” and “Germany aims to have electrified half of its total public bus fleet in 2030 in its Klimaschutzprogramm.”

Retric 3y ago

Modern EV’s easily least 25 years. So, if anything EV school buses could have longer lifespans due to lower maintenance requirements. Critically, there’s multiple routes modest range decline is unlikely to be an issue as long as newer buses are assigned to longer routes.

clintonb 3y ago
> Modern EV’s easily least 25 years. Source, please?
- Retric 3y ago
  Existing cars and electrical systems, there isn’t a lot of novelty involved here. “Standard cars in this day and age are expected to keep running up to 200,000 miles, while cars with electric engines are expected to last for up to 300,000 miles.” https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-miles-does-a-car-last/ https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-mil... Of note older cars tend to go to be driven by teens etc who drive less meaning EV range is less of a concern. Meanwhile battery replacement costs keep falling, 13k to replace a model 3’s battery is way down and predicted to falling further. So the used market is likely to segregate with some % seeing 1 battery replacement in their lifetime and others having quite significant degradation.
  - hulitu 3y ago
    > are expected to keep running up to 200,000 miles, while cars with electric engines are expected to last English might not be my native language but, as far as i know, "last" is not equal with "expected to last".
    - Moomoomoo309 3y ago
      Well, yes, but to say that it will last means it cannot fail before then, which obviously cannot be true. Any vehicle can fail right out of the lot, so it's about when they usually fail, or how long they usually last.