He's not saying you can't predict 10 years out, just that the appropriate prediction is the base rate. In other words, you cannot use information from today to

He's not saying you can't predict 10 years out, just that the appropriate prediction is the base rate. In other words, you cannot use information from today to improve predictions beyond long-term statistical generalities. But that doesn't mean the prediction is useless, only that it has great uncertainty.